Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

Taking a reasoned approach toward the future of 49ers head coach Jim Tomsula: to fire or not to fire?

The 49ers are approaching the end of a disappointing year that many saw coming for Jim Tomsula in his first season. The question becomes: what's the best approach to the head coaching situation? We try to find answers.

SANTA CLARA, Calif. - There are a number of different angles to approach the San Francisco 49ers' coaching situation heading into 2016.

But first, let's point out the obvious: Jim Tomsula has not done much to inspire confidence in his first season as Jed York's appointed leading man.

-The 49ers are 4-9, eliminated from the postseason, and are coming off an embarrassing, lopsided loss to one of the league's most downtrodden teams, the Cleveland Browns.

-Tomsula's club has shown signs of competence at home, while being one of the league's worst traveling teams. On the road, it has a minus-113 point differential, far and away the worst in the league.

-Its lone road win for the season was tainted by the fact it took two missed field goals for the normally-reliable Robbie Gould to get the game to overtime, including a 36-yarder as time expired that would have won the game for the Bears.

-One could look at the team's performance at Levi's Stadium, where it's 3-3, as a sign of encouragement. The 49ers have allowed a league-low 15.8 points per game on their home field after struggling to find any sort of home field advantage in the first year of the $1.3 billion venue.

The answer to the question seems simple. Fire Tomsula and go another direction, right? 

Maybe.

The most simple answer is far from the most pragmatic. Because under the assumption that firing Tomsula is the right thing to do, the next question becomes whether or not the 49ers will be better off in 2016 with their third coach in three seasons.

Change for the sake of change doesn't always turn a team into a contender. It's about making the right change. And is the right change a possibility?

Heading into this season, there were seven new head coaches in the NFL, including three first timers, including Tomsula. The others: Atlanta's Dan Quinn and Todd Bowles with the New York Jets.

So far, Bowles' team has performed the best of the rookies, sitting at 8-5 in the heat of the AFC Wild Card battle, having won its last three. Quinn's Falcons have taken a serious nose dive, losing six straight and seven of their last eight, including Nov. 8 to San Francisco in Blaine Gabbert's first start.

The non-rookie new head coaches in 2015:

Gary Kubiak, Denver (10-3)

Jack Del Rio, Oakland (6-7)

Red Ryan, Buffalo (6-7)

John Fox, Chicago (5-8)

As it stands, two of the seven new head coaches are realistically in the running for the playoffs with three weeks remaining. And only one of those, Bowles, is a rookie head coach.

Winning after finding a new head coach is difficult to do. For Kubiak and Bowles, they have talented defenses, each ranking in the top five in total yardage. Two of seven teams made the right change. At least in year one.

With Black Monday just over three weeks away, it doesn't look like experienced coaches will be on the market like they were last winter. And even if they were, is San Francisco a desirable destination without a franchise quarterback or elite, young cornerstones on the roster?

Let's ask the theoretical question with coaches who might be on the hot seat: would year one with coaches like Chuck Pagano, Mike McCoy, Jeff Fisher, Jason Garrett, etc. be better than year two in Tomsula's system in 2016? Would the 49ers have to go with an offensive coach this time around?

Just for the sake of argument, let's go over some other potential candidates (because those previous guys are known quantities given their recent work):

-Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels:

Bill Belichick's disciples don't have a sterling reputation as head coaches away from their overlord. McDaniels is a prime example. With Denver, he went 11-17 and lost his head coaching job after going 3-9 in his second season. He eventually found his way back to New England, where he's working with Tom Brady again. Some believe McDaniels is setting himself up to be Belichick's successor with Patriots, and he would rather stand pat than jump at a head coaching job elsewhere.

-Bengals offensive coordinator Hue Jackson:

Jackson's name is gaining steam as one of the hottest potential head coaching candidates around. He turned Cincinnati's talented offense into one better units in the league with Andy Dalton under center. But with other suitors calling, probably with more talented rosters and more stability at quarterback, the 49ers would appear to be a long shot to land the former Raiders' coach, who went 8-8 in his first year in 2011 before incoming general manager Reggie McKenzie wanted to hire his own guy.

-Vikings offensive coordinator Norv Turner:

Turner might not be overly selective if he threw his hat in the ring for head coaching vacancies. He's familiar with the organization, having worked as 49ers offensive coordinator in 2006, and he has 15 years of head coaching experience with Washington, Oakland and San Diego, with a combined record of 114-122. He finished .500 or above in nine of his 15 seasons. Additionally, he's someone the 49ers could feel comfortable with trying to develop a young quarterback. He might one of the longest track records of developing quarterbacks of any current coach. But at 63, it's hard to imagine Turner as a long-term option, and his recent teams in San Diego hovered in mediocrity in his final three seasons.

-Bears offensive coordinator Adam Gase:

Gase was the final candidate passed over for Tomsula when he was hired last winter. There's no telling where the relationship between Gase and general manager Trent Baalke stands after the two couldn't agree on defensive coordinators at the critical stage of the interview process. Gase reportedly wanted to keep Vic Fangio around, while the 49ers brass wanted Tomsula to be his defensive coordinator. There's no telling if Gase would entertain another courtship from San Francisco, and he could have better options elsewhere. Like, say, Detroit, with Matthew Stafford at the helm.

-Stanford head coach David Shaw:

Shaw could jump to the NFL one day, but after nearly taking the Cardinal to the College Football Playoff, it's hard to imagine that jump coming this offseason. Many see Stanford as Shaw's dream job, and heading south to Santa Clara to work under work under York seems like a far less desirable option. Shaw seems like a coach who enjoys having complete control of a program. And unless a team with a solid structure in place approaches him with enough financial incentive to leave Stanford, he has no reason to bolt.

-Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly:

Like Shaw, Kelly is right at home in college, having one of the premier jobs in the country at Notre Dame. His team this season was arguably good enough to play in the College Football Playoff, but finished with two losses for a combined four points, with both games being decided on the last play. For Kelly to jump to the pros, it would take the right situation and the right price. Kelly is coaching York's alma mater - bagging him is a pipe dream.

There is no easy answer. The 49ers are in a tough spot. Their current coach is off to a bad start. But at the same time, there's no A-list candidate available that's a realistic possibility like Jim Harbaugh was in 2011.

If the 49ers are going to get rid of Tomsula, they risk turning into an organization with no direction. By keeping Tomsula, at least, they can say they have a direction, even if he hasn't done much to deserve a second season. For continuity's sake, the 49ers could keep Tomsula and find a new offensive coordinator to help groom an incoming rookie quarterback.

It's all very complicated. And given the current structure of the organization, there's no telling if a new coach would be any better in year one than Tomsula in year two.

No matter what, the 49ers need to find a direction and stick to it. Finding a new franchise quarterback wouldn't hurt, either.

Maybe they should start there.

E-mail Niners Digest: NinersDigest@gmail.com

Get updates from Niners Digest by following here and become a subscriber to receive access to premium content and analysis.


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SANTA CLARA, Calif. - There are a number of different angles to approach the San Francisco 49ers' coaching situation heading into 2016.

But first, let's point out the obvious: Jim Tomsula has not done much to inspire confidence in his first season as Jed York's appointed leading man.

-The 49ers are 4-9, eliminated from the postseason, and are coming off an embarrassing, lopsided loss to one of the league's most downtrodden teams, the Cleveland Browns.

-Tomsula's club has shown signs of competence at home, while being one of the league's worst traveling teams. On the road, it has a minus-113 point differential, far and away the worst in the league.

-Its lone road win for the season was tainted by the fact it took two missed field goals for the normally-reliable Robbie Gould to get the game to overtime, including a 36-yarder as time expired that would have won the game for the Bears.

-One could look at the team's performance at Levi's Stadium, where it's 3-3, as a sign of encouragement. The 49ers have allowed a league-low 15.8 points per game on their home field after struggling to find any sort of home field advantage in the first year of the $1.3 billion venue.

The answer to the question seems simple. Fire Tomsula and go another direction, right?

Maybe.

The most simple answer is far from the most pragmatic. Because under the assumption that firing Tomsula is the right thing to do, the next question becomes whether or not the 49ers will be better off in 2016 with their third coach in three seasons.

Change for the sake of change doesn't always turn a team into a contender. It's about making the right change. And is the right change a possibility?

Heading into this season, there were seven new head coaches in the NFL, including three first timers, including Tomsula. The others: Atlanta's Dan Quinn and Todd Bowles with the New York Jets.

So far, Bowles' team has performed the best of the rookies, sitting at 8-5 in the heat of the AFC Wild Card battle, having won its last three. Quinn's Falcons have taken a serious nose dive, losing six straight and seven of their last eight, including Nov. 8 to San Francisco in Blaine Gabbert's first start.

The non-rookie new head coaches in 2015:

Gary Kubiak, Denver (10-3)

Jack Del Rio, Oakland (6-7)

Red Ryan, Buffalo (6-7)

John Fox, Chicago (5-8)

As it stands, two of the seven new head coaches are realistically in the running for the playoffs with three weeks remaining. And only one of those, Bowles, is a rookie head coach.

Winning after finding a new head coach is difficult to do. For Kubiak and Bowles, they have talented defenses, each ranking in the top five in total yardage. Two of seven teams made the right change. At least in year one.

With Black Monday just over three weeks away, it doesn't look like experienced coaches will be on the market like they were last winter. And even if they were, is San Francisco a desirable destination without a franchise quarterback or elite, young cornerstones on the roster?

Let's ask the theoretical question with coaches who might be on the hot seat: would year one with coaches like Chuck Pagano, Mike McCoy, Jeff Fisher, Jason Garrett, etc. be better than year two in Tomsula's system in 2016? Would the 49ers have to go with an offensive coach this time around?

Just for the sake of argument, let's go over some other potential candidates (because those previous guys are known quantities given their recent work):

-Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels:

Bill Belichick's disciples don't have a sterling reputation as head coaches away from their overlord. McDaniels is a prime example. With Denver, he went 11-17 and lost his head coaching job after going 3-9 in his second season. He eventually found his way back to New England, where he's working with Tom Brady again. Some believe McDaniels is setting himself up to be Belichick's successor with Patriots, and he would rather stand pat than jump at a head coaching job elsewhere.

-Bengals offensive coordinator Hue Jackson:

Jackson's name is gaining steam as one of the hottest potential head coaching candidates around. He turned Cincinnati's talented offense into one better units in the league with Andy Dalton under center. But with other suitors calling, probably with more talented rosters and more stability at quarterback, the 49ers would appear to be a long shot to land the former Raiders' coach, who went 8-8 in his first year in 2011 before incoming general manager Reggie McKenzie wanted to hire his own guy.

-Vikings offensive coordinator Norv Turner:

Turner might not be overly selective if he threw his hat in the ring for head coaching vacancies. He's familiar with the organization, having worked as 49ers offensive coordinator in 2006, and he has 15 years of head coaching experience with Washington, Oakland and San Diego, with a combined record of 114-122. He finished .500 or above in nine of his 15 seasons. Additionally, he's someone the 49ers could feel comfortable with trying to develop a young quarterback. He might one of the longest track records of developing quarterbacks of any current coach. But at 63, it's hard to imagine Turner as a long-term option, and his recent teams in San Diego hovered in mediocrity in his final three seasons.

-Bears offensive coordinator Adam Gase:

Gase was the final candidate passed over for Tomsula when he was hired last winter. There's no telling where the relationship between Gase and general manager Trent Baalke stands after the two couldn't agree on defensive coordinators at the critical stage of the interview process. Gase reportedly wanted to keep Vic Fangio around, while the 49ers brass wanted Tomsula to be his defensive coordinator. There's no telling if Gase would entertain another courtship from San Francisco, and he could have better options elsewhere. Like, say, Detroit, with Matthew Stafford at the helm.

-Stanford head coach David Shaw:

Shaw could jump to the NFL one day, but after nearly taking the Cardinal to the College Football Playoff, it's hard to imagine that jump coming this offseason. Many see Stanford as Shaw's dream job, and heading south to Santa Clara to work under work under York seems like a far less desirable option. Shaw seems like a coach who enjoys having complete control of a program. And unless a team with a solid structure in place approaches him with enough financial incentive to leave Stanford, he has no reason to bolt.

-Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly:

Like Shaw, Kelly is right at home in college, having one of the premier jobs in the country at Notre Dame. His team this season was arguably good enough to play in the College Football Playoff, but finished with two losses for a combined four points, with both games being decided on the last play. For Kelly to jump to the pros, it would take the right situation and the right price. Kelly is coaching York's alma mater - bagging him is a pipe dream.

There is no easy answer. The 49ers are in a tough spot. Their current coach is off to a bad start. But at the same time, there's no A-list candidate available that's a realistic possibility like Jim Harbaugh was in 2011.

If the 49ers are going to get rid of Tomsula, they risk turning into an organization with no direction. By keeping Tomsula, at least, they can say they have a direction, even if he hasn't done much to deserve a second season. For continuity's sake, the 49ers could keep Tomsula and find a new offensive coordinator to help groom an incoming rookie quarterback.

It's all very complicated. And given the current structure of the organization, there's no telling if a new coach would be any better in year one than Tomsula in year two.

No matter what, the 49ers need to find a direction and stick to it. Finding a new franchise quarterback wouldn't hurt, either.

Maybe they should start there.

Follow @ChrisBiderman

E-mail Niners Digest: NinersDigest@gmail.com

Get updates from Niners Digest by following here and become a subscriber to receive access to premium content and analysis.

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