The Bears and expansion Houston Texans both have four wins, but in a tie the team with the weaker strength of schedule picks first. Thus, the Texans would get the nod for the third pick ahead of the Bears. The chances of Houston winning their last game of the year are slim as they host the Titans, who have won 9 of their last 10 games and are fighting for home field advantage in the AFC.
The Cowboys, Vikings and Cardinals all have five victories. If, all three lose and the Bears win then Chicago would pick 7th. However, both Minnesota and Dallas play opponents also under .500. The Vikings travel to Detroit, while the Cowboys go to Washington. The Cardinals are also on the road but have the toughest game at Denver.
The Bears host the Bucs and with Tampa's loss to the Steelers there is no chance the Bucs can claim home field advantage. They've clinched their division, but could still earn a first round bye if the Packers lose on the road against the Jets, who are still in the playoff hunt.
Either way the Bucs will know their fate when they take the field against the Bears. They could be playing for a first-round bye or the third seed, which would be important to them because it would likely postpone a potential rematch with the Eagles in the second-round of the playoffs.
Even if there's nothing to play for it's doubtful Jon Gruden is going to let his team head into the playoffs with a two-game losing streak.