5 Bills Predictions: Bills DEs overwhelm OTs

5 Buffalo Bills predictions leading up to Week 4's matchup with the Giants.

1. Karlos Williams goes over 100 yards rushing for the second consecutive week

The NY Giants are second in the NFL in rush yards allowed (74.7 YPC) entering Week 4, but the stat is a bit deceiving. Josh Fyffe of The Giants Beat said the following on the stat:

“In some instances, this one in particular, numbers lie. While the Giants do currently employ the second best rush defense in the NFL, it isn’t because they have been plugging up opposing running backs. They did a solid job against all of the running backs they have faced this season, but also extended second half leads that forced opposing offenses to throw more often. In the three games played this seasons, opposing quarterbacks have thrown the ball 45, 46, and 49 times against the Giants, meaning that opponents average 46.6 pass attempts per game.”

The Bills are going to attempt to feed Williams the ball early and often against the Giants. In three games, Williams has looked like the real deal at the running back position. The rookie has carried the ball 24 times for 186 yards and three touchdowns in three games and it’s very possible that his carries on the season are doubled after Sunday.

Barring the Giants burying the Bills in a deep hole, Williams should see 20-25 carries against the Giants. If that happens, he’ll go over 100 yards rushing for the second consecutive week.

2. Buffalo ends Eli Manning’s streak of passes without an interception

Last week, Buffalo entered their Week 3 game facing a QB who hadn’t thrown an interception in quite a while. By the end of the game, Ryan Tannehill had thrown three interceptions. On Sunday, it will be déjà vu all over again, as Yogi Berra would say. Manning has thrown 108 passes without an interception but his streak will come to an end of Sunday against the Bills.

Buffalo’s aggressive defense will force the veteran into making at least one poor throw that the Bills take advantage of at Ralph Wilson Stadium.

3. Mario Williams and Jerry Hughes find success against Giants OTs

Williams is due for a breakout game this season and it could against the Giants. The defensive end will be matched up against Marshall Newhouse. The right tackle has had a rough start to the season, especially in run defense. Through three games, Pro Football Focus has given Newhouse an overall rating of -8.0 with a -6.5 rating in run blocking. In pass protection, Newhouse has allowed six quarterback hurries and two quarterback hits. This is a matchup that Williams should win on Sunday.

Jerry Hughes could also have a big game on Sunday, especially if Ereck Flowers (questionable) returns to the starting lineup. The rookie left tackle didn’t play last week but he really struggled in his first two weeks. Flowers missed last week's game but his first two NFL starts have not gone well. The left tackle has been credited with five quarterback hurries and three quarterback hits. Even worse, Flowers has been called for three penalties in two games. Those struggles would almost certainly continue against Hughes, one of the best pass rushers in the league over the last two years. 

4. Robert Woods leads the team in receptions

Woods hasn’t been bad this season but he hasn’t been as involved as many had expected. Yes, he has 125 yards receiving and a touchdown on nine receptions but his number hasn’t been called enough in 2015.

Without Sammy Watkins and LeSean McCoy on Sunday, Buffalo needs at least one player to step up in the passing game. Percy Harvin seems like the safer choice based on his early season chemistry with Taylor, but just like Mario Williams is due to breakdown defensively, Woods is due for a breakout performance on offense.

At the end of the game, Woods will lead the Bills in receptions.

5. Score Prediction: Bills 22, Giants 20

Do I really need to explain the score prediction? The final score comes 25 years too late, but Buffalo wins on a 47-yard Dan Carpenter field goal as time expires. 

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