(William Hauser/USA TODAY Sports)

Buffalo Bills RB Karlos Williams outperformed his 'expected' YPC average

Pro Football Focus looked at which backs outperformed their 'expected' YPC averages and Karlos Williams was high on their list.

Buffalo Bills running back Karlos Williams didn't shy away from contact in his rookie season. The back not only welcomed contact, but he found a way to usually keep his feet moving forward. By the end of the season, Williams rushed for 517 yards and seven touchdowns on 93 carries. In 11 games, Williams showed Bills fans a glimpse of what he can bring to the table.

Pro Football Focus recently published an article that featured Williams towards the top of their list. It discussed a running back's expected yards per carry average against their actual yards per carry average. Mike Clay, the writer of the article, broke down the YPC average for backs based upon the number of defensive backs on the field. Using data from 2007-2015, It shows that YPC increase when there are more defensive backs on the field. 

Next, Clay studied the defenses running backs faced in 2015 and charted their "expected" YPC, their actual yards per carry, and the differential. When all was said and done, Williams finished second in the NFL with a 1.3 YPC differential. Only Thomas Rawls of the Seattle Seahawks finished with a higher differential (1.4).

LeSean McCoy finished fifteenth on the list with a differential of 0.2. 

Not bad for a one-two punch in their first year in Greg Roman's offense. 

You can read the entire article here: How defensive packages impacted yards per carry in 2015


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