How Good are the Bills?

How good is this current Bills team? <BR> How Well is Humpty Playing This Season? <BR> Is there really a significant difference, practically, from the last two seasons to this one?

Afterall, they are on a current 4-game winning streak. What is that worth? Set aside the notion that those four teams have a combined record of 18-34 collectively with only four wins over any team present at .500 or better as a foursome. Two of those wins were the Rams defeating Seattle. The Browns defeated the Ravens much earlier in the season when they were a different team altogether and the Seahawks defeated the now 7-6 Vikings.

How good are the opponents that the Bills have beaten?

How many teams currently with winning records have the opponents that the Bills have beaten actually beaten themselves?

Arizona (4-9)
Cleveland (3-10)
Miami (2-11)
NY Jets (9-4)
St. Louis (6-7)
Seattle (7-6)

How good is Seattle (7-6)?

Well, they've beaten Minnesota (7-6), New Orleans (5-8), Tampa (5-8), Carolina (6-7), San Francisco (2-11) twice, and Miami (2-11).

How good is St. Louis (6-7)?

Well, they've beaten Seattle (7-6) twice, San Francisco (2-11) twice, Tampa (5-8), and Arizona (4-9).

How good is Arizona (4-9)?

Well, they've beaten New Orleans (5-8), Seattle (7-6), Miami (2-11), and the Giants (5-8).

How good is Miami (2-11)?

Well, they've beaten St. Louis (6-7) and San Francisco (2-11).

Very rapidly a picture is developing here suggesting a round-robin of win exchanges by one cruddy team over another in a scheduling hilarity!

How good are the Jets?

Well, they've beaten Buffalo, Miami (2-11) twice, Houston (5-8), Arizona (4-9), Cincinnati (6-7), San Francisco (2-11), Cleveland (3-10), and San Diego (10-3) early in the season as the only team with a winning record that they have beaten.

How good is Cleveland (3-10)?

Well, they've beaten Washington (4-9), and Cincinnati (6-7), and Baltimore (8-5) as the only winning team beaten and before the Browns turned into an injury nightmare. They were clearly a much better team at the season's onset.

Nevertheless, of all the teams that the Bills have beaten, those opponents have only beaten winning teams themselves twice in 18 games played vs. teams now with winning records and not including the Rams two wins over Seattle. Seattle has only played two teams with winning records, one of which being the mediocre Vikes. The Rams have also only faced three teams with winning records apart from Seattle, and those teams dusted the Rams to a collective tune of 119-56 in the three games.

Of the other three teams that the Bills have beaten, the Jets, the Fins again, and the Cardinals, in 14 games vs. teams with now seven or more wins, those teams collectively have only two wins.

The combined record of teams beaten by the Bills is 33-58, an average of less than 5-8. The combined record of teams lost to by the Bills is 52-26, an average of greater than 8-5. The offensive points scored by the Bills in 7 wins are 197. The offensive points scored by the Bills in 6 losses are 50. The defensive/special-teams points scored in the Bills 7 wins are 43. The defensive/special-teams points scored in the Bills 6 losses are 7.

So again, this is exactly why, among other analyses as put forth in prior pieces, there is little practical difference in this season's Bills vice other season's Bills during the Commander Tom-Humpty era. This media force is strong and the smokescreen thick, but the facts are clear upon further review.

The error of this season to be avoided is that this season will unwisely be used as a stepping stone for more of likely the same methodologies which have brought this team to the same exact mediocre/.500-or-thereabouts team that it has been for three seasons now during the CT-H era. As mentioned in countless articles prior, my hopes for a better team next season are now in jeopardy as the forward progress will once again likely be stinted in the faulty perceptions which are built on sand.

On a related note, how well has Humpty been playing this season?

I have received numerous notes letting me know how well he has played this season to which my very quick response is that there is no difference. But let's let the statistics speak for themselves.

In games vs. teams currently 7-6 or better, i.e. .500+, Humpty has 6 TDs, 12 INTs, and 15 total turnovers.

In games vs. teams currently 6-7 or worse, i.e. .500-, Humpty has 12 TDs, 3 INTs, and 4 total turnovers.

I ask the reader if this inspires any confidence whatsoever should the Bills ever enter the playoffs with Humpty as the QB?

There is no practical difference in the way Humpty has played this season vice that of 2002 or 2003, or seasons prior for that matter. The Bills should have looked to capitalize on getting this team moving forward next season vice attempting to hang onto a thread of hope that is already frayed. The approach used is risky and will cost the team heading into next season when it fails.


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