Fifty-one different mock drafts.
One hundred sixty versions of those 51 mock drafts.
Six thousand forty-eight individual selections in those 160 versions of 51 mock drafts.
All of these have been entered into Scout's proprietary Mock Draft Muncher database, recorded for eternity, and then analyzed to see if the vast accumulation of draft knowledge dropped in all these mocks tells us anything.
Right now, it tells us that there's emerging consensus on who will go in what position in the NFL draft, just in time for that consensus to be thrown into chaos by unexpected 40 times and
So, before this combine-generated chaos sets in, let's look at the world's foremost composite mock draft to see how the internet's (occasionally self-appointed) draft experts see the 2017 NFL Draft playing out. Here are the rules for the simulation:
- If a top selected player by the mock drafters is available, that player is assigned to that team.
- If the top selected player is not available, but the second one is, that second player goes to the team.
- If the top two are not available, but the third one is, that player is selected for the team.
- If none of the top three picks are available, the simulation picks the player with the lowest average draft position at a position of need.
Got it? Let's go!
1: Cleveland Browns, Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A&M
Forty-three out of the fifty-one mock drafts name Garrett as the Browns selection with the number one pick in the draft. Closest behind Garrett are Mitch Trubisky and Jonathan Allen with three picks apiece. Garrett's average draft position selected is 1.22, about the lowest ADP seen for anyone not named "Luck".
This is what's called "consensus", and it's likely to only grow after Garrett's amazing display at the NFL Combine. Unless the Browns do something amazingly unexpected (
2: San Francisco 49ers, Mitch Trubisky, QB, North Carolina
Hearts around Trubisky's hometown of Mentor, Ohio (on the east side of Cleveland) will be broken as the Browns feel compelled to pick Garrett and allow Trubisky to slide into the hands of the San Francisco 49ers at pick two.
Trubisky is the pick in twenty of the mock drafts, with Jonathan Allen second at twelve, and fellow quarterbacks DeShone Kizer and Deshaun Watson well behind Trubisky.
Interestingly, Watson was the favorite selection of Mock Drafters until about 60 days ago, and ever since then, it's been all Trubisky (see graph here), with Kizer being selected half as much as he was before as well. Over the last sixty days, why would Trubisky emerge? Hard to say, beyond some sort of strange consensus being reached without any real new information.
3: Chicago Bears, Jonathan Allen, DL, Alabama
While the Bears need a quarterback as badly as the Browns and 49ers, the consensus of mock drafts is that the talented defensive lineman will be simply too good for the Bears to pass up at #3. Trubisky (assuming he makes it past the Niners) and Watson are the second and third-favorite picks, but well behind Allen with just eight and six selections in the mock drafts respectively.
4: Jacksonville Jaguars, Jamal Adams, S, LSU
Things get a bit closer at this stage of the game, with Jonathan Allen and Leonard Fournette close behind Adams with ten selections apiece compared to Adams thirteen selections. Adams has an average draft position of almost exactly seven, as he's ranked everywhere from the first pick (by USA Today on 2/20) to the twenty-fifth selection (The Big Lead on 1/3).
5: Tennessee Titans, Marshon Lattimore, CB, Ohio State
Lattimore's average draft position has been dropping rapidly into the top ten from as high as mid-second round in the early days of the mock drafts. Lattimore is the top pick with twelve selections, followed closely by Adams and Clemson WR Mike Williams.
6: New York Jets, Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU
While the Jets also have quarterback issues and Deshaun Watson and Mitch Tribusky make appearances at this point in various mock drafts, the leading selection is Fournette, the big running back out of LSU. Fournette has been sliding (see graph here) in this position of late, however, indicating that some re-thinking is taking place and he may slide in the mock drafts soon.
7: San Diego Chargers, Malik Hooker, S, Ohio State
Next to Garrett-to-the-Browns at #1, Hooker going to the Chargers might be the biggest consensus among our 50+ mock drafts. Twenty-one have him going to the Chargers, with the next most popular pick being fellow safety Jamal Adams with six.
8: Carolina Panthers, Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State
Mock drafters around the internet agree on one thing: Carolina needs some help at running back. What they disagree on is who the selection should be. Leonard Fournette is the top selection here, with 16 picks in the mock drafts. Dalvin Cook is close behind with nine selections. Because in Fournette went to the Jets above in our composite mock draft, Cook goes to the Panthers here.
9: Cincinnati Bengals, Reuben Foster, LB, Alabama
The top picks for the Bengals
10: Buffalo Bills, Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson
A lot of mock drafters are not expecting the Tyrod Taylor saga in Buffalo to end happily, as they select Watson over 20% of the time. Mike Williams of Clemson is close behind with seven selections, and DeShone Kizer is third with four.
11: New Orleans Saints, Derek Barnett, DE, Tennessee
Despite Barnett starting to slide down a bit in the mock drafts (see graph here), he's still narrowly the pick here as the top pick, Reuben Foster, is not available, having been selected above. Picks for the Saints are all over the map, with no one selection getting more than 15% of the picks.
12: Cleveland Browns, DeShone Kizer, QB, Notre Dame
For whatever reason, Kizer has been sliding down and down the mock draft boards (see graph here). The Browns happily snap him up here, with Kizer being the top selection among the mock drafts who, as with the Saint, are all over the map with potential picks for the talent-deficient Browns.
13: Arizona Cardinals, Mike Williams, WR, Clemson
Mock Drafters believe that the Cardinals will be looking for Carson Palmer's eventual replacement here, as DeShone Kizer is the top selection with eight picks at this slot. Following him closely behind are WRs Corey Davis and Mike Williams with six selections apiece. Williams has the lower average draft position, so he's the pick here.
14: Indianapolis Colts, Takkarist McKinley, DE, UCLA
Bad luck for the Colts, as their top pick, Dalvin Cook, and second pick, Derek Barnett, are both off the boards. The third pick is McKinley, with about 10% of the Colts picks in the mock drafts. Falling through is Solomon Thomas, who might be a more likely selection here given the way this draft has broken, but who is only actually picked twice in the mock drafts at #14. Thomas' average draft position is now down into the top twelve, so it's unlikely he slides this far, but that's how mock drafts are falling as of this moment.
15: Philadelphia Eagles, Corey Davis, WR, Western Michigan
The Eagles help solve their issue at WR by landing the rising WR out of the MAC, who is tied with Sidney Jones and Dalvin Cook as the top pick on six of the mock drafts. Davis is selected because of a lower average draft position.
16: Baltimore Ravens, Quincy Wilson, CB, Florida
Wilson is the top selection by mock drafters for the Ravens with six selections, with lots of potential picks landing with two or there selections out of the fifty-plus mock drafts in the Muncher. This is another possible landing spot for Solomon Thomas, who continues to slide....
17: Washington Redskins, Malik McDowell, DE, Michigan State
18: Tennessee Titans, O.J. Howard, TE, Alabama
19: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, John Ross III, WR, Washington
The run on pass catchers continues as our composite mock draft seems relatively certain the Ross will be the selection here with ten mock drafts assigning him to the Bucs.
20: Denver Broncos, Ryan Ramczyk, OT, Wisconsin
Offensive tackles dominate the selection chart for the Broncos, with Garett Bolles and Forrest Lamp getting multiple nods, but
21: Detroit Lions, Solomon Thomas, DE, Stanford
The Lions are the luckiest team in the league according to the consensus mock, with Solomon Thomas sliding to them as Best Player Available at a position of need with their top mock draft selections already off the board. Thomas average draft position selected is 11.43, so this is well after one would expect to see him taken, but this slide is an artifact of him not actually being the favorite player selected at any individual slot of the draft. Mock drafters know they like him, but aren't certain where he's going at this point, although (as noted above), Cincinnati is a likely landing spot if trends continue.
22: Miami Dolphins, Zach Cunningham, ILB, Vanderbilt
Fortune smiles upon the Dolphins as well as their second pick, Zach Cunningham, is available. O.J. Howard was the top
23: New York Giants, David Njoku, TE, Miami
Consensus pick! Seven mock drafts have Njoku here, with six going to fellow (and already selected) TE O.J. Howard. So, the mock drafts are saying that Giants are going TE come what may.
24: Oakland Raiders, Marlon Humphrey, CB, Alabama
The Raiders shore up their secondary in a big way as another Bama player comes off the boards at #24. Malik McDowell is actually the top pick
25: Houston Texans, Patrick Mahomes, QB, Texas Tech
We have consensus again at pick 25, where Patrick Mahomes is the leading selection for the Texans with seven selections at this spot. This masks a lot of mock draft confusion about where Mahomes will go, as he's missing in most of the mock drafts. Ones that pick him really like the Texans as a destination, however.
26: Seattle Seahawks, Cameron Robinson, OT, Alabama
There's no mystery, according to our fifty mock drafters, about what position will go off the boards when the Seahawks select: The top four picks are all offensive tackles. The
27: Kansas City Chiefs, Sidney Jones, CB, Washington
The top seven picks for the Chiefs are all defenders, with Sidney Jones and fast-rising Temple OLB Haasan Reddick the top two with four selections apiece. Zach Cunningham also has four
28: Dallas Cowboys, Taco Charlton, DE, Michigan
We're going to ignore all the rumors in this simulation, and assume the Cowboys will pick in their designated slot. The mock drafters are split between Charlton and Missouri DE Charles Harris here, but one more mock draft selects Charlton, so he's a consensus pick here for the Cowboys.
29: Green Bay Packers, Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford
The top pick (going away) for the Packers at this slot is Washington CB Sidney Jones, but we have him gobbled up by the Chiefs at two slots above. To find the selection, we have to Packers third-most selected player, Christian McCaffery. McCaffery, for what it's worth, is also New England's top selection in the mock drafts, but this selection might be proof that Bill Belichick doesn't always get what he wants.
30: Pittsburgh Steelers, Tim Williams, OLB, Alabama
Even when perennially selecting towards the bottom of the draft, the Steelers always seem to manage to find a player who fits into their system. The mock drafters this year are predicting it will be Williams who becomes the next Steelers OLB to torment quarterbacks in the AFC North.
31: Atlanta Falcons, Charles Harris, DE, Missouri
Here's where Harris comes off the board. He's the consensus pick of the mock drafters with eight selections out of fifty. Florida DT Caleb Brantley is next with six.
32: New England Patriots, Jabrill Peppers, S, Michigan
Other NFL teams may breathe a sigh of relief that top selections David Njoku and Christian McCaffery are off the board, but now they'll have to deal with how the Patriots might use the versatile Peppers, wins he's the top remaining pick for the Patriots
So, there you have it. The composite mock draft from over four dozen mock drafters around the internet.
Don't like it? Don't worry... this is certain to change after the combine and free agency, and we'll follow up with another composite mock draft then!