The Terror! 39 Mock Drafts Absorbed!

It grows larger and larger. It has no known predators. At this point, it's impossible to stop the Mock Draft Muncher, which has now consumed 39 mock drafts. The voracious creature, a statistical averaging of every mock draft known to man now shows the Browns taking...

The Mock Draft Muncher just continues to grow. Short of catching some sort of horrible disease or running out of mock drafts to eat, there is nothing that can stop it's inexorable growth.

Except perhaps the amount of hard disk space on TBF's computer. If that holds out, there is no mock draft safe from being absorbed. Thirty-nine have been consumed, with no end in sight.

The mocks seem to be following the pattern we saw from a year ago.

Early on, the mocks were pretty stable, as they were in 2003. For example, most early mock drafts assumed the Chargers would want Eli Manning with their first pick. Now, though, every NFL team does its best to fill the air with uncertainty, doubt, and - let's face it - blatant fabrications which would shock OJ Simpson's defense team with their awe-inspiring boldness.

With a month to go before the NFL draft, the fog of draft war is settling in and the mocks are displaying the confusion. Continuing with the example of the Chargers, we now find out that they're talking to the three quarterbacks and OT Robert Gallery. Then, just when we think we've got it narrowed down, they deal their best pass-catching mass of more-or-less human physiology, David Boston, to the Dolphins. Whoa! Does this mean one of this year's crop of elite receivers could be the Chargers pick with the first choice?

Trust us, the guys who write the mock drafts don't know any more than we do. Or the Chargers, for that matter.

What we can tell you, based on our analysis of last year's mock drafts, is that the mocks were actually more accurate toward the early part of the year than they were at the end. Maybe you can make sense of all this. 


Observant Browns fans might look at these results and note that the Muncher's first choice for the Browns, Kellen Winslow, was selected previously at Washington's top choice. Even more observant Browns fans - and by this we mean you - might notice that the second choice of the Browns in the mocks, Robert Gallery, was also selected previously, by the Giants.

So, if both of those players are off the boards, who would the Browns pick? A possible is found in TBF's accounting of all the Browns picks in the mocks:

Number of times player was
chosen, their position, &
Average Draft Position

Team, Slot,
# of times player was
most frequently chosen

Player Qty POS ADP Team Slot Qty
Kellen Winslow 12 TE 7.13 Cleveland 7 12
Robert Gallery 7 OT 4.56 NY Giants 4 27
Ben Roethlisberger 6 QB 5.59 Arizona 3 18
Roy Williams 3 WR 9.62 Jacksonville 9 14
Shawn Andrews 3 OT 16.03 Miami 20 7
Tommie Harris 2 DT 9.59 Atlanta 8 12
Mike Williams 1 WR 5.42 Oakland 2 7
Chris Gamble 1 CB 14.69 NY Jets 12 13
DJ Williams 1 LB 19.67 Minnesota 19 6
Sean Taylor 1 S 5.72 Washington 5 16
Philip Rivers 1 QB 17.90 Pittsburgh 11 7
Vince Wilfork 1 DT 13.00 Houston 10 10

In this analysis, Winslow, Gallery, and Roethlisberger are off the boards before the Browns pick, and they would go to their third selection, either Roy Williams or Shawn Andrews. Williams is generally considered to be a higher choice, so for arguments sake, we would say that the Muncher is pointing the Browns at the Texas WR if they stay where they are in the first round.

- AB


The OBR Top Stories