Mock Drafts: The Horrible Truth

Browns fans basically kicked the keisters of the so-called draft experts, if one compares the results of their mock drafts. For example, not a single "expert" mock figured that Buffalo would take Lee Evans (pictured) with pick #13. Here is the horrifying truth, from the one site that goes back to see which mocks rocked, and which were less accurate than throwing darts at a dartboard.


Each year, prior to the NFL Draft, numerous draft sites and experts appear to declare their opinions on the likely outcome of the upcoming draft. Some experts appear with great fanfare and financial compensation, others are niche publications or are fans with a strong interest in tracking college players.

An element we see with increasing frequency is a "mock draft", where the aforementioned experts attempt to predict where players will be selected. Several years ago, so many mock drafts had appeared that we launched the "Mock Draft Muncher", which TBF (TheBrownsFan) has calculated and published every year since 2000. The Mock Draft Muncher attempts to combine all the mock drafts we can find (currently 40 are tracked) and synthesizes a single mock out of all the individual mocks.

Bernie's Insiders, since appearing as BrownsTNG.com in 1999, has produced a mock draft most years, generally the result of fans making picks in a chat room mock draft or, as this year, by allowing fans to make their own mock draft picks.

This year was the first year that we created an application to allow fans make their own mock draft picks and track the results. 120 Browns fans made picks using the application, and we are currently contacting the top scorers to dole out prizes such as a six-month BerniesInsiders.com subscription and gift certificates to our Draft Day Party host, Bunker Hill Golf Course.

We figured that it would be a kick to see how our visitors selections did compared with the draft "experts". Our formula for scoring the results was very simple - we added up the number of players the mock drafts actually picked to go in the right spot.

Browns fans took the experts to school.

Here are some of the numbers:

  • 6% of BerniesInsiders.com visitors nailed more correct selections than any of the published mock drafts
  • The same percentage (5%) of Browns fans had nine players selected at the right spot - the same as the top mock drafts (Great Blue North Report and NFLPlayers.com)
  • Therefore, over 10% of Browns fans did as well or better than any of the "expert" mock drafts.
  • Nearly a third (29%) of Browns fans selected seven or more players in the right spots, as opposed to 13% of the experts mock drafts.
  • ESPN Magazine referred to all draft gurus other than Mel Kiper as "Mel Kiper Wannabes". ESPN Interactive got six right, as did NFL.com's draft expert Vic Carucci, which would put them in the middle third of Browns fans. Kiper and Carucci can take solace, however, in that about half (56%) of the mock drafts published did worse than they did. Most of the other draft guru "wannabes" did exactly as well as Kiper.
  • In the name of full disclosure, the Mock Draft Muncher got five right (which makes sense based on how the mocks did in general) and Bernie's Insiders contributor Swerb got nine right. Your webmaster got six right, which means that I'm simply a better-coiffed Mel Kiper. Given that I've gone on record calling Kiper a "helmet-haired loon", you can form your own conclusions.

Here is a graph of the selections by Browns fans vs. those of the experts. The x-axis represents the number of players predicted in the right spot, and the y-axis is percentage of each group which got that number correct.


If you participated in the mock draft contest, you can click the button below to get your results:

Get your pick 'ems results!

Here is a full listing of how accurately all the mock drafts we tracked in 2004 predicted the final result:

One Browns Fan 12
Two Browns Fans 11
Four Browns Fans 10
Six Browns Fans 9
Great Blue North 9
NFL Players.com 9
Six Browns Fans 8
Draft King 8
Rob's Scouting 8
Fifteen Browns Fans 7
All Sorts Sports 7
Sixteen Browns Fans 6
Scott Wright 6
Ask The Commish 6
TSN.ca 6
Saints Revolution 6
Searle's Draft 6
Vic Carucci - NFL.com 6
Fantasy Insights 6
College Football News 6
Dallas Cowboys.net 6
ESPN Interactive 6
Twenty Browns Fans 5
Heard's F'ball Report 5
Sports Dialogue 5
Bengal Zone 5
Vikings Insiders 5
Pittsburgh Live 5
Frank Coyle 5
Draft Studio 5
Fifteen Browns Fans 4
Football.com 4
CBS Sportsline 4
900 Football Links 4
Couch Scout 4
Ourlad's 4
Fox Sports 4
The Red Zone 4
N2FL.com 4
NFL Report.com 4
Seventeen Browns Fans 3
Huddle Report 3
Draft Notebook 3
GoTitans.com 3
ClevelandBrowns.com 3
MSNBC 3
CNNSI 3
Eleven Browns Fans 2
NFL Forum 2
Draft Daddy 2
Four Browns Fans 1
About Football 1

The OBR Top Stories

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Here is a full listing of how accurately all the mock drafts we tracked in \r\n2004 predicted the final result:

\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n
One Browns Fan12
Two Browns Fans11
Four Browns Fans10
Six Browns Fans9
Great Blue North9
NFL Players.com9
Six Browns Fans8
Draft King8
Rob's Scouting8
Fifteen Browns Fans7
All Sorts Sports7
Sixteen Browns Fans6
Scott Wright6
Ask The Commish6
TSN.ca6
Saints Revolution6
Searle's Draft6
Vic Carucci - NFL.com6
Fantasy Insights6
College Football News6
Dallas Cowboys.net6
ESPN Interactive6
Twenty Browns Fans5
Heard's F'ball Report5
Sports Dialogue5
Bengal Zone5
Vikings Insiders5
Pittsburgh Live5
Frank Coyle5
Draft Studio5
Fifteen Browns Fans4
Football.com4
CBS Sportsline4
900 Football Links4
Couch Scout4
Ourlad's4
Fox Sports4
The Red Zone4
N2FL.com4
NFL Report.com4
Seventeen Browns Fans3
Huddle Report3
Draft Notebook3
GoTitans.com3
ClevelandBrowns.com3
MSNBC3
CNNSI3
Eleven Browns Fans2
NFL Forum2
Draft Daddy2
Four Browns Fans1
About Football1
\r\n","mobileBody":"


Each year, prior to the NFL Draft, numerous draft sites and experts appear to declare their opinions on the likely outcome of the upcoming draft. Some experts appear with great fanfare and financial compensation, others are niche publications or are fans with a strong interest in tracking college players.

An element we see with increasing frequency is a "mock draft", where the aforementioned experts attempt to predict where players will be selected. Several years ago, so many mock drafts had appeared that we launched the "Mock Draft Muncher", which TBF (TheBrownsFan) has calculated and published every year since 2000. The Mock Draft Muncher attempts to combine all the mock drafts we can find (currently 40 are tracked) and synthesizes a single mock out of all the individual mocks.

Bernie's Insiders, since appearing as BrownsTNG.com in 1999, has produced a mock draft most years, generally the result of fans making picks in a chat room mock draft or, as this year, by allowing fans to make their own mock draft picks.

This year was the first year that we created an application to allow fans make their own mock draft picks and track the results. 120 Browns fans made picks using the application, and we are currently contacting the top scorers to dole out prizes such as a six-month BerniesInsiders.com subscription and gift certificates to our Draft Day Party host, Bunker Hill Golf Course.

We figured that it would be a kick to see how our visitors selections did compared with the draft "experts". Our formula for scoring the results was very simple - we added up the number of players the mock drafts actually picked to go in the right spot.

Browns fans took the experts to school.

Here are some of the numbers:

Here is a graph of the selections by Browns fans vs. those of the experts. The x-axis represents the number of players predicted in the right spot, and the y-axis is percentage of each group which got that number correct.


If you participated in the mock draft contest, you can click the button below to get your results:

Here is a full listing of how accurately all the mock drafts we tracked in 2004 predicted the final result:

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