MDM: Late-Breaking Draft Trends

Our updated survey of over 50 mock drafts shows that there are some late-breaking trends which may delight (and annoy) Browns fans. There is sharp movement on several fronts with 48 hours to go before the draft kicks off Saturday...


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Showing that mock drafts have herding instincts as powerful as their ability to reproduce, recent updates to the 50+ mock drafts tracked by the Mock Draft Muncher show a massive shift towards Michigan WR Braylon Edwards as the Browns selection in the last four days. The move from Alex Smith and Derrick Johnson to Edwards is one of the most pronounced trends to be found in the Mock Draft Muncher as we near Saturday's draft.

Here are the late-breaking trends as shown in the mock drafts surveyed by the Muncher:

  1. Edwards to the Browns
    The shift is very impressive, as Edwards goes from being an also-ran to the front-runner within a week. One of the most dramatic displays of mock draft herd mentality in memory.
  2. Few Are Buying Edwards Posturing by SF and Miami
    Edwards isn't moving upward in mock drafts for the 49ers or Miami Dolphins, indicating that mock draft experts feel that the Dolphins will still choose a QB or RB when push comes to shove. The only question now is whether Saban can fool the Vikings. Niners trend. Dolphins trend.
  3. Browns picking Jason Campbell in the Second is Looking Less Likely
    Campbell is only showing on a couple of first-round mock drafts, but there is some sharp last-minute movement to Campbell in the #25 draft slot previously held by the Broncos, and now property of the Redskins. With Charlie Frye the subject of possible interest by the Packers, there exists the prospect of a first-round run on all the top available quarterbacks.
  4. Matt Jones gets the 2005 Outta Nowhere Award
    Jones is easily this year's player who came out of nowhere in the last month of the draft, i.e., the "workout warrior" winner. Jones was not on a single mock draft one month ago. While his average draft position has changed little, Jones has now shown up about half of the mock drafts, with curve being exponential.
  5. Alex Smith to Dolphins Gains Credibility
    First though to be posturing for the benefit of the Tampa Bay Bucs and Jon Gruden, more Mock Draft authors are buying that Alex Smith could be the selection of the Dolphins. Smith is gaining somewhat on both the Niners and Dolphins. The confusion around who will actually pick Smith shows up in the Mock Draft Muncher draft simulation, because he's the second choice of the Niners, Dolphins, and Browns respectively, and falls through the top three picks.

There are other trends which you may be able to spot as you surf around the Mock Draft Muncher pages.

Massive thanks, as always, to TheBrownsFan for allowing us to adapt his spreadsheets and reports for our use on


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