What We Learned: Cowboys at Colts

The Colts dropped their third straight and are now one game behind the Jaguars for the division lead. Is it finally time to give up hope? Brad Keller takes a look at what we learned in Week 13.

The stats are there, but the inability to seize the moment is killing the Colts: When Indianapolis scored their first touchdown in the second quarter, they forced a three-and-out and got the ball back.  They went three-and-out themselves and momentum shifted back to the Cowboys sideline. 

When they took their first lead of the game early in the fourth quarter, they had several opportunities to get the ball back, hopefully score again, and close out the game.  Dallas took the game to them instead and staged a ten minute drive that took the wind out of the defense's sails and forced Peyton Manning to attempt to rally at the two-minute warning. 

In overtime, the defense got the ball back but the offense couldn't put together a scoring drive.  The Colts outgained the Cowboys and outscored them on offense, but they let too many opportunities slip away.  Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis each had a sack, but the defense was unable to consistently pressure Jon Kitna.  Dallas returned two interceptions for touchdowns and picked off four Manning passes.  When they had a chance to go for the throat, they did not hesitate and Indianapolis was too gassed by the end of the game to put up much of a fight.

The offense and defense are both exhausted from having to play catch up the past three weeks.  They need to operate with a lead in order to center themselves and start moving in the right direction on both sides of the ball.

Perhaps releasing Ryan Lilja was not a good idea: The Colts guards — still a revolving door at the position — have been dominated by stellar nose tackles the past three weeks.  They allowed Wince Wilfork, Antonio Garay, and Jay Ratliff to control the line of scrimmage and control the tempo of the game, disrupting both the run and pass offense for Indianapolis.  Jeff Saturday is still a good player, but he is no longer the Pro Bowl force that he once was.

The guard position has been unstable all season and Saturday has not been able to anchor the interior.  This should be a major focus in the offseason, as the Colts have a huge talent void up the middle.

Three things can happen when you throw the ball and two of them are bad: Indianapolis is averaging twice as many yards per pass attempt as they are when they run the ball, but the tipped pass that led to Manning's fourth interception is more of a symptom of throwing the ball too much than it is just bad luck.  When you throw the ball 48 times per game, there's a 67 percent chance that something bad will happen.

The NFL has set up the rules to make it easier to throw the ball, but there are limits to how much those rules can offset being one dimensional.  The yards the Colts can gain through the air means that they can't become a running team, especially since they are not running the ball well without Joseph Addai.  But, with a complete lack of balance on offense, defenses are starting to jump routes and make Manning look average.

Manning is regressing: He's staring down receivers.  He's hearing footsteps.  He's overlooking defenders that are sitting in passing lanes and sitting on routes.  He's trying to do too much and the offense is starting to unravel at critical moments.

Now, he still put up 35 points, so it would be foolish to blame the loss entirely on him.  But, he has been as much of a factor in the three game losing streak as he has been the reason Indianapolis was in two of those games right until the end.

Getting bigger at defensive tackle is not the same as getting stronger: Daniel Muir and Antonio Johnson represent an upgrade over what the Colts have had in the past, but they're still not at the level of the tackles the Indianapolis offense has faced in the last month.  Wilfork was a first-round pick, but Garay was selected in the sixth round and Ratliff in the seventh, so there is talent available at the position late.  Bill Polian needs to focus on identifying strong, aggressive players that still fit the Cover 2 scheme.

Eric Foster is coming into his own: Foster had three total tackles, a tackle for loss, a couple of other heads-up plays, and showed some pass rushing ability in fairly limited action.  Though he projects as more of an end than a tackle, he could be part of a very effective rotation at the position, particularly if Jerry Hughes ever steps up.

The fat lady has yet to sing: If the season ended today, Indianapolis would be the ninth seed and would therefore be out of playoff consideration.  Given the records of other wild-card eligible teams, the Colts would need to win their division to qualify for the postseason.  The good news is that three of their final four games are division games with a head-to-head matchup coming up with the division-leading Jaguars.  If they can win out, they will win the division.  That's a tall order, but it is what is keeping the fat lady in the wings.


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","mobileBody":"When Indianapolis scored their first touchdown in the second quarter, they forced a three-and-out and got the ball back.  They went three-and-out themselves and momentum shifted back to the Cowboys sideline. 

When they took their first lead of the game early in the fourth quarter, they had several opportunities to get the ball back, hopefully score again, and close out the game.  Dallas took the game to them instead and staged a ten minute drive that took the wind out of the defense's sails and forced Peyton Manning to attempt to rally at the two-minute warning. 

In overtime, the defense got the ball back but the offense couldn't put together a scoring drive.  The Colts outgained the Cowboys and outscored them on offense, but they let too many opportunities slip away.  Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis each had a sack, but the defense was unable to consistently pressure Jon Kitna.  Dallas returned two interceptions for touchdowns and picked off four Manning passes.  When they had a chance to go for the throat, they did not hesitate and Indianapolis was too gassed by the end of the game to put up much of a fight.

The offense and defense are both exhausted from having to play catch up the past three weeks.  They need to operate with a lead in order to center themselves and start moving in the right direction on both sides of the ball.

The Colts guards — still a revolving door at the position — have been dominated by stellar nose tackles the past three weeks.  They allowed Wince Wilfork, Antonio Garay, and Jay Ratliff to control the line of scrimmage and control the tempo of the game, disrupting both the run and pass offense for Indianapolis.  Jeff Saturday is still a good player, but he is no longer the Pro Bowl force that he once was.

The guard position has been unstable all season and Saturday has not been able to anchor the interior.  This should be a major focus in the offseason, as the Colts have a huge talent void up the middle.

Indianapolis is averaging twice as many yards per pass attempt as they are when they run the ball, but the tipped pass that led to Manning's fourth interception is more of a symptom of throwing the ball too much than it is just bad luck.  When you throw the ball 48 times per game, there's a 67 percent chance that something bad will happen.

The NFL has set up the rules to make it easier to throw the ball, but there are limits to how much those rules can offset being one dimensional.  The yards the Colts can gain through the air means that they can't become a running team, especially since they are not running the ball well without Joseph Addai.  But, with a complete lack of balance on offense, defenses are starting to jump routes and make Manning look average.

He's staring down receivers.  He's hearing footsteps.  He's overlooking defenders that are sitting in passing lanes and sitting on routes.  He's trying to do too much and the offense is starting to unravel at critical moments.

Now, he still put up 35 points, so it would be foolish to blame the loss entirely on him.  But, he has been as much of a factor in the three game losing streak as he has been the reason Indianapolis was in two of those games right until the end.

Daniel Muir and Antonio Johnson represent an upgrade over what the Colts have had in the past, but they're still not at the level of the tackles the Indianapolis offense has faced in the last month.  Wilfork was a first-round pick, but Garay was selected in the sixth round and Ratliff in the seventh, so there is talent available at the position late.  Bill Polian needs to focus on identifying strong, aggressive players that still fit the Cover 2 scheme.

Foster had three total tackles, a tackle for loss, a couple of other heads-up plays, and showed some pass rushing ability in fairly limited action.  Though he projects as more of an end than a tackle, he could be part of a very effective rotation at the position, particularly if Jerry Hughes ever steps up.

If the season ended today, Indianapolis would be the ninth seed and would therefore be out of playoff consideration.  Given the records of other wild-card eligible teams, the Colts would need to win their division to qualify for the postseason.  The good news is that three of their final four games are division games with a head-to-head matchup coming up with the division-leading Jaguars.  If they can win out, they will win the division.  That's a tall order, but it is what is keeping the fat lady in the wings.

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