Colts games continue to be a mystery against the spread, but the rest of Week 5 went well.
A last-minute change to take the Texans over the Colts dropped me to 2-3 straight up and 0-5 against the spread in predicting games for the team covered on a daily basis. That’s probably the worst I’ve ever been on the Colts, which goes to show how unpredictable this team can be.
The other games made up for it with a 10-4 week straight up and 8-5-1 against the spread.
On we go to Week 6, and something tells me the winless spread streak for the Colts is about to end.
(Odds provided by OddsShark)
Falcons -3.5 at Saints — An injured Julio Jones won’t prevent sticking with Atlanta. As much as New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees is a gamer, there’s only so much he can do on a weekly basis with the team around him. Pick: Falcons 26, Saints 20.
Bengals -3 at Bills — Regardless of who plays quarterback for the home team, Andy Dalton is making the plays for the visitors and that’s what will matter. Buffalo has come down to earth since taking the Colts apart in Week 1. Pick: Bengals 27, Bills 17.
Broncos -4 at Browns — Denver doesn’t have to count on defense every week, it just seems like it. Cleveland showed something at Baltimore, but the Ravens’ defense is imploding. Peyton Manning will make enough plays. Pick: Broncos 23, Browns 16.
Bears +3 at Lions — The line might surprise some because Chicago rallied to win at Kansas City Sunday, but Detroit is due to get its first win. The Lions were awful at home against Arizona last week. No way they play that lousy again. Pick: Lions 34, Bears 27.
Texans Even Jaguars — Houston is trying to decide on its quarterback, but running back Arian Foster and wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins are playmakers. That should be enough against the Jags, who are coming off a loss at Tampa Bay. Pick: Texans 30, Jaguars 24.
Chiefs +4 at Vikings — Kansas City’s letdown at home against the Bears became an even greater setback with running back Jamaal Charles being lost for the season. Minnesota had a bye week to rest up for this one. Pick: Vikings 34, Chiefs 17.
Redskins +7 at Jets — New York has the kind of defense to give Washington trouble. While it’s always a question how much the Jets will score, they’ve had a week off after a triumphant trip to London to regroup and rest up. Pick: Jets 23, Redskins 13.
Cardinals -3.5 at Steelers — Arizona’s bounce-back win in the Motor City reminded Bruce Arians’ team is still a tough out. Pittsburgh’s victory on the final play at San Diego Monday gave the Steelers some hope. At least for now. Pick: Cardinals 30, Steelers 23.
Dolphins +1 at Titans — Tennessee has had Buffalo and Indianapolis down when playing at home and let the games slip away. The Titans won’t let it happen again, especially against a team that just got its head coach fired. Pick: Titans 33, Dolphins 19.
Panthers +7.5 at Seahawks — While Seattle is winless on the road, it takes care of business at home although it’s fair to say the defending NFC champs have got some issues. Unbeaten Carolina finally plays a decent opponent. Pick: Seahawks 24, Panthers 16.
Chargers +11.5 at Packers — San Diego’s Monday home loss to Pittsburgh will sting for a while and now the Bolts have to visit Lambeau Field, where Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers doesn’t lose. Stick with the unbeatens. Pick: Packers 34, Chargers 24.
Ravens -1 at 49ers — Baltimore’s defensive problems couldn’t be more obvious. That the line gives the visitors a slight edge is indicative of how bad San Francisco has been playing. Look for the home team to prevail. Pick: 49ers 23, Ravens 20.
Patriots -10.5 at Colts — Recent history can’t be ignored when these two AFC rivals get together. The unbeaten visitors have routed the Colts by an average of 29 points in four previous meetings. That trend can’t be ignored. Pick: Patriots 38, Colts 23.
Giants +4 at Eagles — Not that Philadelphia has itself straightened out, but another home game after a Sunday win against the Saints gives Chip Kelly’s team a chance to build some momentum. The G-men won’t go down easy. Pick: Eagles 27, Giants 20.
Last week: 10-4 (.714).
Overall: 46-31 (.597).
Last year after Week 5: 50-26 (.658).
Last week: 8-5-1 (.607).
Overall: 36-39-2 (.481).
Last year after Week 5: 40-35-1 (.533).