NFL picks 2015: Week 11

The Indianapolis Colts' line for their Sunday game at Atlanta has shrunk, giving the visitors 3.5 points after opening at a touchdown.

Let’s hear it for the underdogs! They didn’t just cover last week, they won outright.

Favorites were just 2-11 against the spread with the Saints-Redskins game at an even line. Some had the Saints favored, which is why many of the national stories had the favorite number at 2-12.

Ten road teams won, and nine of them were road underdogs. Go figure.

As a result, an ugly 6-8 mark straight up was worse than the 7-7 spread score. At least there were enough spread picks with the dogs to break even.

As a media friend always likes to say, this is why they keep building casinos in Las Vegas.


(Odds by

Titans +3 at Jaguars — Nothing like two AFC South rivals meeting on a Thursday night to capture the excitement of NFL primetime action. The Titans are coming off a bad home loss to Carolina. The Jags caught a break at Baltimore. Pick: Titans 27, Jaguars 24.

Colts +3.5 at Falcons — Both teams are coming off a bye. The Colts don’t have Andrew Luck, which explains the line. But Matt Hasselbeck has won twice this season. Atlanta has lost three of four to bad teams, so flip a coin on this one. Pick: Falcons 27, Colts 23.

Rams +3 at Ravens — Both are coming off bad home losses. Baltimore can’t seem to do anything right, but St. Louis absolutely imploded against Chicago and has benched QB Nick Foles. Another toss-up between shaky teams. Pick: Ravens 24, Rams 23.

Redskins +7 at Panthers — Unbeaten Carolina should have no problem staying that way against inconsistent Washington. The only question is can the Redskins make a game of it. Are the Panthers feeling a bit too good now? Pick: Panthers 28, Redskins 20.

Broncos -2.5 at Bears — Denver has quickly fallen in back-to-back weeks and now Peyton Manning is injured and sidelined. Many will look at the Bears’ romp at St. Louis and stick with Chicago. The gut says differently. Pick: Broncos 26, Bears 23.

Raiders -1 at Lions — After losing badly at home to the Vikings, Oakland hits the road to play a bad Detroit team that won at Green Bay for the first time since 1991. So everyone will hop on board with the Lions. Just can’t do it. Pick: Raiders 30, Lions 27.

Jets -4 at Texans — New York has had a little extra time to regroup from losing at home to the rival Bills. The Jets have a solid defense, but are inconsistent on offense. Same with the Texans, who bounced the Bengals Monday. Pick: Jets 23, Texans 17.

Cowboys -2.5 at Dolphins — The long-awaited return of QB Tony Romo should give Dallas every chance to end an awful losing streak against an inconsistent Miami bunch that won on the road at Philadelphia. It’s another toss-up. Pick: Dolphins 26, Cowboys 23.

Buccaneers +6.5 at Eagles — It must be maddening to try to figure out Philadelphia, which should have defeated Miami at home but blew it at the end with a Mark Sanchez interception while in field-goal range. Go figure. Pick: Eagles 30, Buccaneers 24.

Chiefs -3 at Chargers — Kansas City played its best game of the season in knocking off the Broncos in Denver. San Diego has had a bye week to rest up, but the reality is the Chargers aren’t very good. This one will be close. Pick: Chiefs 27, Chargers 23.

Packers -1 at Vikings — How can anyone expect Green Bay to lose four in a row? Seriously? But then again, who saw the Packers losing at home to Detroit? Minnesota impressed in winning at Oakland. Pick: Vikings 24, Packers 23.

49ers +14 at Seahawks — What a fat line for everyone looking to take the points. But Seattle is going to be a bit salty after losing at home in primetime to Arizona. San Francisco is in the wrong place at the wrong time. Pick: Seahawks 34, 49ers 13.

Bengals +4.5 at Cardinals — After such an ugly home loss on Monday to Houston, it’s that time of year again when everybody will question Cincinnati’s strength as a legit Super Bowl contender. Arizona is playing too well. Pick: Cardinals 30, Bengals 23.

Bills +7 at Patriots — How Buffalo gets an enticing line at New England must be because Julian Edelman suffered a foot injury. But QB Tom Brady can still get this done, especially at home against an outmanned foe. Pick: Patriots 34, Bills 24.

Picks totals

Straight up

Last week: 6-8 (.429).

Overall: 92-54 (.630).

Last year after Week 10: 96-50-1 (.656).

Spread ‘em

Last week: 7-7 (.500).

Overall: 71-70-5 (.503).

Last year after Week 10: 79-66-2 (.544).


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