There’s nothing like a Thanksgiving dinner with plenty of turkey to help erase the memory of lousy picks.
A second consecutive lousy week has the spread percentage dipping below .500 and the straight up percentage falling farther behind last year’s pace.
The Colts were road underdogs at Atlanta and not only covered but won. Should have known something was up with that line dwindling from seven to 3.5 points in a few days.
For the week, I went 7-7 straight up and 4-8-2 against the spread.
Yeah, let’s move on already.
(Odds by Oddsshark.com)
Eagles +2.5 at Lions — It’s interesting that Philly opened as a favorite and is now a dog. Hmmm. The money is going toward Detroit at home on Turkey Day. As much as it pains me, we’ll go with the home team. Pick: Lions 30, Eagles 27.
Panthers +1.5 at Cowboys — Carolina was a slight favorite at one point but now a dog. If I use the same logic as the previous game, plus adding that Tony Romo makes Dallas that much better … No, I’m staying with the unbeatens. Pick: Panthers 27, Cowboys 24.
Bears +8.5 at Packers — Green Bay finally rebounded at Minnesota while Chicago had Denver on the ropes and blew it. A short week and a trip to Lambeau Field don’t bode well for the Bears. The Pack will take care of business. Pick: Packers 34, Bears 23.
Vikings Even at Falcons — Minnesota’s winning streak ended with a thud while Atlanta continued its fade. So why is this a pick ‘em? Maybe because the Vikings were beaten so badly and the Falcons always keep it close. Pick: Falcons 26, Vikings 23.
Rams +10.5 at Bengals — St. Louis should have won at Baltimore, despite an anemic offense. Cincinnati lost a tough one at Arizona. The Bengals have lost two in a row, but will get straightened out at home against the Rams. Pick: Bengals 34, Rams 16.
Saints +3 at Texans — Isn’t it all about the timing? New Orleans was on a roll, then everyone was reminded of how bad the defense can be. That got coordinator Rob Ryan fired. Houston gets quarterback Brian Hoyer back. Pick: Texans 26, Saints 21.
Buccaneers +2.5 at Colts — The winless skid of picking Colts games with the spread has to end at some point, does it not? To be honest, statistically, Tampa Bay is playing better. The Colts' average margin of victory is 3.6 points. Pick: Colts 27, Buccaneers 24.
Chargers +4.5 at Jaguars — At some point, San Diego has to wake up and play a decent game, one would think. But the Chargers have been so bad lately, it won’t get any easier for Jacksonville to stay close in the AFC South. Pick: Jaguars 20, Chargers 17.
Bills +7 at Chiefs — This sure seems like another line that will hit exactly, just like last week, when Buffalo pushed in losing by a touchdown at New England. Kansas City crushed San Diego, but this one should be a bit tougher. Pick: Chiefs 24, Bills 16.
Dolphins +4 at Jets — Suddenly, everyone has hopped off the Jets’ bandwagon, huh? Miami disappointed, as should have been expected, in losing at home to Dallas. The Jets should be able to win an ugly game, but who knows? Pick: Jets 23, Dolphins 17.
Raiders Even at Titans — Oakland has fallen off in a pair of winnable games while Tennessee is going nowhere fast. Sounds like another forgettable matchup. No clue on this one. Seriously. An argument could be made for either side. Pick: Raiders 27, Titans 24.
Giants -2.5 at Redskins — Washington got waxed at Carolina, so it’s tough to make a case for bouncing back at home against New York. The Giants are coming off a bye, which means fresh legs and more than enough offense. Pick: Giants 23, Redskins 20.
Cardinals -11.5 at 49ers — Arizona will score. Can San Francisco? It’s a lot of points for a home underdog, and Arizona has stumbled away from home at Pittsburgh and St. Louis. But the Cardinals beat the 49ers last time by 40. Pick: Cardinals 38, 49ers 20.
Steelers +3.5 at Seahawks — The line has come down the past few days, which suggests Pittsburgh is getting some support. It will be interesting watching Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown against that Seattle defense. Pick: Seahawks 27, Steelers 23.
Patriots -2.5 at Broncos — No Peyton Manning for Bill Belichick and Tom Brady to beat this time. Denver’s defense should still make it a challenge for Brady, but it sure seems unlikely that the Broncos will be able to score enough. Pick: Patriots 27, Broncos 20.
Ravens +3 at Browns — The return of quarterback Matt Schaub doesn’t exactly inspire anyone to take the Ravens, huh? Baltimore didn’t just lose quarterback Joe Flacco but also running back Justin Forsett. Take the Browns at home. Pick: Browns 24, Ravens 13.
Last week: 7-7 (.500).
Overall: 99-61 (.619).
Last year after Week 12: 104-56-1 (.649).
Last week: 4-8-2 (.357).
Overall: 75-78-7 (.491).
Last year after Week 12: 86-73-2 (.540).
Phillip B. Wilson also can be found on Facebook and Google+.