Polling Polian on Draft Strategy: Part Four

ColtPower concludes its look at Bill Polian's drafting strategy by looking at the data as a whole and coming up with some conclusions and trends. Catch up on Parts 1-3, see what the numbers tell us, and talk about what we've learned in the forums!

If you missed the earlier installments of this series, you can take a look at them here:

Part One | Part Two | Part Three

So, what did we learn on this little stroll down memory lane? Well, something we already knew — that Polian is one of the best in the business. His first-round picks have been nothing short of brilliant and he's mined plenty of gems in later rounds as well. He's missed on a few, but the proof is in the pudding: no other NFL team has ever won 12 games in sixth consecutive seasons.

In fact, perhaps the only other run of consistent success that can match that was also engineered by Polian: the four straight Super Bowl appearances by the Buffalo Bills from 1991-1994.

When he was fired from Buffalo in 1993, following the team's third-straight loss in the Super Bowl, Polian seemed to understand the difficulty of what he had accomplished, reportedly saying of the Bills, "They're a very special group of men. Cherish them, you will not see their like again."

The same is true of the current incarnation of the Colts. Thanks to Polian, they have enjoyed a run of success unequaled in regular-season football. Perhaps it is disappointing that the team has just one Super Bowl title during his tenure, but to win the Super Bowl, you have to first reach the playoffs, and the Colts have consistently put themselves in that position.

Polian alluded to how difficult it is to stay on top of the league during the NFL Scouting Combine, saying, "We've been on top for a long time — ten years in the playoffs or whatever it is — the system is supposed to take its toll on you over that time. We've been fortunate because it has not."

We'll close this series with a couple of observations discovered while going over Polian's draft history:

  • Polian doesn't miss with first-round picks: As we saw in Part Two, his first-round success has been uncanny. The only legitimate criticism one could make is that Polian overvalued Rob Morris in the 2001 draft. But Morris contributed for six seasons and started in a Super Bowl that the team won. The criticism gets easier when you see that one player Polian passed on was Keith Bulluck, but all in all, it's difficult and frankly, unfair to say Morris was a "mistake."



  • Polian focuses more on defense than offense: Although six of his nine first-round picks — Peyton Manning, Edgerrin James, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Joseph Addai and Anthony Gonzalez — have been offensive players, he's actually picked far more defensive players than offensive players — 52 to 34.

    Part of that is just a numbers game. Teams use more defensive players than offensive players during the course of a game and a season. Defensive linemen rotate in and out, and linebacker and defensive back packages vary according to down and distance.

    That's rarely the case on offense. Most teams have a running back that shares the carries with a starter, and a tight end or fullback that rotates in, along with a couple of receivers. But offensive lines rarely change, so while an offense might use 14 or 15 players during a game, a defense might use four or five defensive tackles, four defensive ends, and any number of linebackers and defensive backs, adding up to 20 or more defensive players seeing snaps during the game.

    It also makes sense to have your defensive backups, who are used to shedding blocks and making tackles, around to fill out your kick and punt coverage units.

  • However, his eye might be slightly better for offensive players: This is a tough call to make, but a higher proportion of the offensive players listed above have become stars — in fact, all of them except Gonzalez, the youngest of the group, and Clark, who has the misfortune of playing in the AFC at the same time as Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates — have been to at least one Pro Bowl.

    The defensive group hasn't been shabby, however. Freeney has been to four Pro Bowls, and Bob Sanders has been to two and won a defensive player of the year award. Cato June, Antoine Bethea and Robert Mathis have also been Pro Bowlers drafted by Polian.

    It may be more accurate to say that Polian has a great eye for "can't-miss" offensive talent, but he's done a fine job identifying players that can play defense for the Colts throughout the draft.

    Which is a better trait? Well, both are pretty good. Where would this team be today had Polian chosen Ryan Leaf and Ricky Williams? Then again, how would the Colts have fared last season if Polian wouldn't have discovered Robert Mathis in the fifth round in 2003?

  • Polian — and the Colts — are committed to building through the draft: Approximately 80 percent of the current roster at the beginning of this month began their football career with the Colts, either through the draft or as undrafted free agents.

    While some teams rely on making a big splash through free agency to build their team, the Colts have gone the other route — almost completely disregarding big-name free agents in favor of keeping their own players and filling in the gaps with bargain free agents.

So, are we any closer to learning what Polian will do in this year's draft? Not really. We can be fairly sure that he'll pick a strong player and likely a future star in the first round, and he tends to learn towards offense. On the second day, he'll add players — likely defenders — that will be contributors in a year or two.

While there likely won't be a Manning or James at the 27th pick, remember that Polian was able to get Reggie Wayne and Joseph Addai with the 30th pick in 2001 and 2006, respectively, and grabbed Clark with the 24th pick in 2003.

If he can get a player of that caliber — and history indicates he can, and likely will — then Colts fans can be smiling on draft day, knowing their team is still in good hands.


Talk about this story in our Insider's Forum!

Follow ColtPower's updates on Twitter!


Colts Blitz Top Stories

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If you missed the earlier installments of this series, you can take a look at them here:

Part One | Part Two | Part Three

So, what did we learn on this little stroll down memory lane? Well, something we already knew — that Polian is one of the best in the business. His first-round picks have been nothing short of brilliant and he's mined plenty of gems in later rounds as well. He's missed on a few, but the proof is in the pudding: no other NFL team has ever won 12 games in sixth consecutive seasons.

In fact, perhaps the only other run of consistent success that can match that was also engineered by Polian: the four straight Super Bowl appearances by the Buffalo Bills from 1991-1994.

When he was fired from Buffalo in 1993, following the team's third-straight loss in the Super Bowl, Polian seemed to understand the difficulty of what he had accomplished, reportedly saying of the Bills, \"They're a very special group of men. Cherish them, you will not see their like again.\"

The same is true of the current incarnation of the Colts. Thanks to Polian, they have enjoyed a run of success unequaled in regular-season football. Perhaps it is disappointing that the team has just one Super Bowl title during his tenure, but to win the Super Bowl, you have to first reach the playoffs, and the Colts have consistently put themselves in that position.

Polian alluded to how difficult it is to stay on top of the league during the NFL Scouting Combine, saying, \"We've been on top for a long time — ten years in the playoffs or whatever it is — the system is supposed to take its toll on you over that time. We've been fortunate because it has not.\"

We'll close this series with a couple of observations discovered while going over Polian's draft history:

So, are we any closer to learning what Polian will do in this year's draft? Not really. We can be fairly sure that he'll pick a strong player and likely a future star in the first round, and he tends to learn towards offense. On the second day, he'll add players — likely defenders — that will be contributors in a year or two.

While there likely won't be a Manning or James at the 27th pick, remember that Polian was able to get Reggie Wayne and Joseph Addai with the 30th pick in 2001 and 2006, respectively, and grabbed Clark with the 24th pick in 2003.

If he can get a player of that caliber — and history indicates he can, and likely will — then Colts fans can be smiling on draft day, knowing their team is still in good hands.


Talk about this story in our Insider's Forum!

Follow ColtPower's updates on Twitter!

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