© Eric Hartline | 2015 Sep 20 | USA Today

Dallas Cowboys At New Orleans Saints Comprehensive Statistical Preview Of The Football Gods

The Cowboys will look to virtually eliminate the hated Saints from the 2015 playoff picture, while righting their own ship. Here's what the stats tell us.

You’ve got to love a good streak.

The New Orleans Saints are in a rebuild mode and it doesn’t look to be going well. They haven’t been able to turn their draft picks into solid contributors and their defense has become atrocious. Now, their quarterback is playing cat and mouse games as he tries to work through a bruised rotator cuff and the Cowboys are wondering if they’ll be facing the former Super Bowl MVP or Checkdown McCown.

The Saints have lost six in a row at home, while Dallas has won a ridiculous 10 straight regular-season road games. Still, the Saints are sitting at 0-3 and there isn’t a team that will get their crowd more into the game than the Dallas Cowboys with a backup quarterback.

Basic statistics will tell you that the Cowboys offense had a good game against Atlanta. Plenty of rushing yards, a QB with a pristine YPA… but we’re not here to be basic, are we?

In this Week Four edition of the Advanced Stats Notebook, we take a look at the early-season indicators on just how good each of the teams has looked.

______DVOA Playoff Odds______


FootballOutsiders.com

Mean Wins is Football Outsiders current projection for how each team will finish the season.

DVOA stands for Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average. It basically measures how much better a team (or player) is than the average team (or player) against the same opponent in the same game situations. As the season progresses, Weighted DVOA puts more weight on the team’s recent performance, rather than weighing all games equally. Which makes sense, in regards to future success, how a team has played over the last six games is much more important than how they played Week 1. For now though, the sample size is what it is.

DVOA and Mean Wins were not huge fans of the Cowboys performance against the Falcons last Sunday. Dallas lost over 1.5 games from their projection; in other words they were counted to win that game, and they looked so bad blowing that lead, it also reduced their chances of winning other games as the season progresses. The interesting tidbit is that their “with Romo” DAVE Rating increased, and sports a huge lead over “whole” Eagles and Giants squad… but will he return with things still to play for?

I would assume that based on the size of the loss to Atlanta compared to our NFC East bretheren is why they have higher percentages to advance in the playoffs than Dallas, despite Dallas having a higher percentage chance to be the only team from the division to qualify for the postseason.

FootballOutsiders.com

______Standard Statistics______

Dallas Cowboys

Off Yds / GOff Pts / GDef Yds / GDef Pts / G
Total 380.7 25 317.7 25.0
Rank 8th 12th 8th 20th

 

New Orleans Saints

Off Yds / GOff Pts / GDef Yds / GDef Pts / G
Total 370.3 20.0 397.0 28.0
Rank 13th 19th 29th 26th

 

Here we get our first look at the differences in the seasons of the two teams. Dallas is a Top 10 team in both Total Offense and Total Defense, and a in the top half of the league in scoring. Meanwhile, the Saints are a top half team in Total Offense, but at the bottom of the league in Total Defense, offensive and defensive scoring.

____Third Down Conversions____

TeamRankings.com


Dallas’ third down conversion percentage is completely unacceptable. If you are looking for the biggest change between 2014 and this year, look no further. Dallas spent the large majority of last season as the best third down conversion team in the league, and now they’re in the bottom third. This, can partially be traced to their difficulty in getting into advantageous third down situations, settling for 3rd and long due to early down failures much more often than last year.

However, Dallas is also struggling in third and short situations. They are just 6 of 14 in situations where they are 3rd and 3 or less, 42.9%. In 2014, they converted 59.2% of these opportunities.

TeamRankings.com



Here we see that both teams struggle to get off the field when given the opportunity. Atlanta was a gaudy 9 for 14, 64% in converting their third down opportunities. This was the prevailing theme of the second half blowout, as Dallas had numerous players logging far too many snaps for a team that prides itself in defensive rotations.

______TOXIC DIFFERENTIALS_______

Toxic Differential is a metric that started with Super Bowl winning head coach Brian Billick when he was the offensive coordinator during the Randy Moss era in Minnesota. It’s used to measure a team’s ability to create and prevent both turnovers and explosive plays. Toxic Differential is calculated by adding together a team’s turnover differential (takeaways - giveaways) and its big play differential (big plays for - big plays against). Various sites have various definitions for what constitutes a big play. As they have the most comprehensive ranking, we’ll roll with SportingCharts.com’s definition of 10+ yards on a running play and 25+ yards on a pass play. As SportingCharts says, “Over the last 10+ seasons, a majority of teams that have won the Super Bowl finished the regular season in the Top 10 for Toxic Differential.”

SportingCharts.com

Early season volume stats are prone to wild swings, but the Cowboys are in the wrong half of the league here. -3 turnover margin and breaking even on the big plays is not a recipe for success. Last year, Dallas struggled in the Toxic Differential rankings until the second half of the season; mostly due to the gigantic hole they fell into during Week 1 against the 49ers. Here’s a look at the Toxic Event Ledger from the Cowboys-Falcons game.

TeamToxic EventLedger
DAL 1 1-10-DAL 20 (15:00) J.Randle left tackle to DAL 48 for 28 yards (R.Alford). DAL +1
DAL 1 1-10-ATL 37 (14:03) J.Randle right end for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Randle orginally ran off tackle before changing course and running DAL +2
DAL 1 1-10-DAL 42 (11:09) J.Randle right end to ATL 38 for 20 yards (R.Allen). DAL +3
ATL 1 2-10-ATL 46 (5:42) D.Freeman right end pushed ob at DAL 38 for 16 yards (N.Hayden) DAL +2
ATL 2 1-10-DAL 19 (6:03) B.Weeden pass short left intended for J.Witten INTERCEPTED by W.Moore [N.Stupar] at DAL 34. W.Moore to DAL 23 for 11 yards (Z.Martin). DAL +1
DAL 2 1-10-DAL 20 (2:18) (Shotgun) B.Weeden pass short left to C.Beasley pushed ob at DAL 35 for 15 yards (R.Allen). DAL +2
ATL "2 1-10-ATL 42 (:28) (Shotgun) M.Ryan pass short middle to D.Freeman to DAL 23 for 35 yards (B.Carr). Pass complete on runner sneaking out of the backfield.
" DAL +1
ATL 3 3-3-DAL 45 (7:16) (Shotgun) M.Ryan pass deep right to J.Jones for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass complete on a "post pattern." EVEN
ATL 3 1-10-ATL 11 (3:09) D.Freeman right guard to ATL 27 for 16 yards (J.Wilcox). ATL +1
ATL 3 3-6-ATL 46 (:26) (Shotgun) M.Ryan scrambles up the middle to DAL 36 for 18 yards (S.Lee). ATL +2
ATL 4 2-6-ATL 42 (8:51) D.Freeman right end to DAL 41 for 17 yards (S.Lee) ATL +3

Once again, the ebb and flow of the Toxic Events crystalizes the roller coaster of the game. Once the big plays stopped for Dallas and swung in Atlanta’s favor, the story of the game was written. This is an interesting theme that appears to have carried over from 2014 and is starting to paint a picture that slow and methodical is a recipe for being beaten.

____AIKMAN EFFICIENCY RATINGS____

I was first introduced to the Aikman Efficiency Rankings via O.C.C.’s article on Blogging The Boys back in September of 2014. In it, (available here) he references an interview that Tm Colishaw did with Cowboys DC Rod Marinelli. Marinelli stated that the only two stats he pays attention to are turnovers and the Aikman Efficiency Rankings. Let that sink in; if our DC holds it in such high regard, it should be part of The Notebook!

Aikman.com

_PRIMARY DIFFERENTIAL RANKINGS_

We all know that it is a passing league, while running the football undoubtedly has an effect on the passing game, and more importantly how the opposition defends it. In the end, though, passing success is what leads to team success.

There are generally two stats that are easily calculated that seem to have a high correlation to predicting future success; Passer Rating differential and Adjusted Net Yards Per Passing Attempt differential. Both are calculated by simply finding the difference between what your offense achieves in each category and taking away what your defense gives up. Teams with the larger differentials are more likely to have future success (read: wins) than those teams with smaller, or negative differentials.

In statistics, this relationship between wins and PRD is called a correlation. The strength of the correlation is measured by the "correlation coefficient". The correlation coefficient measures the relationship between two variables. This coefficient is often referred to as "r²" and is expressed as a number between 1 and -1. The closer the r² number is to 1 or -1, the stronger the relationship between the two variables. The closer it is to zero, the weaker the relationship.

R² between PRD and wins in 2013 was 0.71, an astonishingly high correlation. It is almost as good as scoring differential (0.89) at predicting the W/L record of an NFL team.

PASSER RATING DIFFERENTIAL

RankTmGOff RatingDef RatingDifferential
1 Arizona Cardinals 3 117.8 58.6 59.2
2 Green Bay Packers 3 135.4 79.2 56.2
3 Buffalo Bills 3 116.1 78.1 38
4 New England Patriots 3 119.6 90.2 29.4
5 Cincinnati Bengals 3 121 94.7 26.3
6 Denver Broncos 3 83.3 58 25.3
7 Tennessee Titans 3 109.2 85.5 23.7
8 Carolina Panthers 3 86.5 66.3 20.2
9 Dallas Cowboys 3 101.4 81.7 19.7
10 San Diego Chargers 3 104.3 87.6 16.7
11 New York Jets 3 78.4 66.5 11.9
12 Atlanta Falcons 3 98.6 90.4 8.2
13 New York Giants 3 97.9 90 7.9
14 Pittsburgh Steelers 3 112.2 108.8 3.4
15 Oakland Raiders 3 99.5 98.9 0.6
16 Minnesota Vikings 3 80.1 85.4 -5.3
17 St. Louis Rams 3 86.6 94 -7.4
18 Philadelphia Eagles 3 72.5 81.7 -9.2
19 Seattle Seahawks 3 94.2 104.3 -10.1
20 Baltimore Ravens 3 82.2 92.8 -10.6
21 Cleveland Browns 3 89.9 102.9 -13
22 Houston Texans 3 70.5 85.4 -14.9
23 Washington Redskins 3 81.3 96.3 -15
24 Kansas City Chiefs 3 86.4 101.9 -15.5
25 Miami Dolphins 3 85.5 101.8 -16.3
26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 77.9 100.3 -22.4
27 Jacksonville Jaguars 3 78.3 102.2 -23.9
28 Detroit Lions 3 78.7 106.7 -28
29 Indianapolis Colts 3 65.1 95.1 -30
30 New Orleans Saints 3 85.4 119.6 -34.2
31 San Francisco 49ers 3 71.1 111.6 -40.5
32 Chicago Bears 3 69.2 123.8 -54.6

Now we’re getting somewhere. Notice the high correlation of passer ratings for teams at the bottom and top of these rankings to actual records. Teams that betray their records, like the Giants, had two wins slip out of their hands. Dallas is clearly superior to New Orleans in the passing game, with the obvious caveat of who is lining up at quarterback and the risk associated with earning these ratings.

ANY/A DIFFERENTIAL

Adjusted Net Yards Per Pass Attempt, or ANY/A, comes in third when it comes to correlating to victory with an R2 coefficient of 0.69. What exactly is ANY/A?

ANY/A: Adjusted net passing yards per attempt = (Passing Yards + (Passing TDs)*20 - (INTs thrown)*45 - Sack Yards) / (Passing Attempts + Sacks)

It’s basically a formula that takes into account sacks and interceptions in qualifying how efficient a team is in the passing game. Here’s how the team’s square up in this metric.

RankTmOff ANY/ADEF ANY/ADifferential
1 Arizona Cardinals 10 3.4 6.6
2 Green Bay Packers 10.1 5.2 4.9
3 Cincinnati Bengals 10.3 6 4.3
4 New England Patriots 9.1 5.7 3.4
5 Denver Broncos 4.9 2.5 2.4
6 Carolina Panthers 6.3 4 2.3
7 Buffalo Bills 7.7 5.5 2.2
8 St. Louis Rams 6.5 5 1.5
9 Tennessee Titans 7.5 6 1.5
10 Atlanta Falcons 7.7 6.3 1.4
11 Pittsburgh Steelers 8.6 7.3 1.3
12 Dallas Cowboys 7 5.9 1.1
13 New York Giants 7.6 6.5 1.1
14 New York Jets 5 4.5 0.5
15 San Diego Chargers 7 6.6 0.4
16 Oakland Raiders 7.2 7.5 -0.3
17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 6.6 -0.6
18 Philadelphia Eagles 4.6 5.3 -0.7
19 Minnesota Vikings 4.7 5.8 -1.1
20 Baltimore Ravens 5.8 6.9 -1.1
21 Cleveland Browns 6.6 7.9 -1.3
22 Jacksonville Jaguars 5.7 7.3 -1.6
23 Washington Redskins 5.1 6.7 -1.6
24 Houston Texans 4.7 6.4 -1.7
25 Kansas City Chiefs 5.3 7.1 -1.8
26 Seattle Seahawks 5.5 7.4 -1.9
27 Miami Dolphins 5.8 8.2 -2.4
28 Detroit Lions 4.9 7.7 -2.8
29 Indianapolis Colts 4.3 7.4 -3.1
30 Chicago Bears 4.3 8.7 -4.4
31 New Orleans Saints 6 10.6 -4.6
32 San Francisco 49ers 3.8 8.9 -5.1

Again, we see that Philadelphia’s success has so much to do with their special teams prowess. When that isn’t clicking, they tend to look closer to last week than their good weeks.

______WEEK 4 DVOA RANKINGS______

DVOA is a metric, devised by Football Outsiders, which measures success on each play as compared to league average based on "a number of variables including down, distance, location on field, current score gap, quarter, and opponent quality.” The metric is outputted in “percentage points better than average”.

COWBOYSOffense DVOADefense DVOAST DVOATotal DVOA
Value 4.1% 3.8% 0.6% 0.9%
Team Rank 12th 21th 17th 15th
SAINTSOffense DVOADefense DVOAST DVOATotal DVOA
Value -4.9% 26.4% -1.2% -32.4%
Team Rank 18th 31th 20th 29th

Suffice to say, DVOA is not a fan of the Saints effort thus far, and is lukewarm on the Cowboys. The rankings speak for themselves in indicating that this is a matchup that theoretically Dallas should be able to secure a win in.


CowboysHQ Top Stories

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Off Yds / GOff Pts / GDef Yds / GDef Pts / G
Total380.725317.725.0
Rank8th12th8th20th

 

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New Orleans Saints

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Off Yds / GOff Pts / GDef Yds / GDef Pts / G
Total370.320.0397.028.0
Rank13th19th29th26th

 

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Here we get our first look at the differences in the seasons of the two teams. Dallas is a Top 10 team in both Total Offense and Total Defense, and a in the top half of the league in scoring. Meanwhile, the Saints are a top half team in Total Offense, but at the bottom of the league in Total Defense, offensive and defensive scoring.

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____Third Down Conversions____

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\"\"TeamRankings.com


Dallas’ third down conversion percentage is completely unacceptable. If you are looking for the biggest change between 2014 and this year, look no further. Dallas spent the large majority of last season as the best third down conversion team in the league, and now they’re in the bottom third. This, can partially be traced to their difficulty in getting into advantageous third down situations, settling for 3rd and long due to early down failures much more often than last year.

However, Dallas is also struggling in third and short situations. They are just 6 of 14 in situations where they are 3rd and 3 or less, 42.9%. In 2014, they converted 59.2% of these opportunities.

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\"\"TeamRankings.com
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Here we see that both teams struggle to get off the field when given the opportunity. Atlanta was a gaudy 9 for 14, 64% in converting their third down opportunities. This was the prevailing theme of the second half blowout, as Dallas had numerous players logging far too many snaps for a team that prides itself in defensive rotations.

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______TOXIC DIFFERENTIALS_______

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Toxic Differential is a metric that started with Super Bowl winning head coach Brian Billick when he was the offensive coordinator during the Randy Moss era in Minnesota. It’s used to measure a team’s ability to create and prevent both turnovers and explosive plays. Toxic Differential is calculated by adding together a team’s turnover differential (takeaways - giveaways) and its big play differential (big plays for - big plays against). Various sites have various definitions for what constitutes a big play. As they have the most comprehensive ranking, we’ll roll with SportingCharts.com’s definition of 10+ yards on a running play and 25+ yards on a pass play. As SportingCharts says, “Over the last 10+ seasons, a majority of teams that have won the Super Bowl finished the regular season in the Top 10 for Toxic Differential.”

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\"\"SportingCharts.com
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Early season volume stats are prone to wild swings, but the Cowboys are in the wrong half of the league here. -3 turnover margin and breaking even on the big plays is not a recipe for success. Last year, Dallas struggled in the Toxic Differential rankings until the second half of the season; mostly due to the gigantic hole they fell into during Week 1 against the 49ers. Here’s a look at the Toxic Event Ledger from the Cowboys-Falcons game.

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
TeamToxic EventLedger
DAL1 1-10-DAL 20 (15:00) J.Randle left tackle to DAL 48 for 28 yards (R.Alford).DAL +1
DAL1 1-10-ATL 37 (14:03) J.Randle right end for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Randle orginally ran off tackle before changing course and runningDAL +2
DAL1 1-10-DAL 42 (11:09) J.Randle right end to ATL 38 for 20 yards (R.Allen).DAL +3
ATL1 2-10-ATL 46 (5:42) D.Freeman right end pushed ob at DAL 38 for 16 yards (N.Hayden)DAL +2
ATL2 1-10-DAL 19 (6:03) B.Weeden pass short left intended for J.Witten INTERCEPTED by W.Moore [N.Stupar] at DAL 34. W.Moore to DAL 23 for 11 yards (Z.Martin).DAL +1
DAL2 1-10-DAL 20 (2:18) (Shotgun) B.Weeden pass short left to C.Beasley pushed ob at DAL 35 for 15 yards (R.Allen).DAL +2
ATL\"2 1-10-ATL 42 (:28) (Shotgun) M.Ryan pass short middle to D.Freeman to DAL 23 for 35 yards (B.Carr). Pass complete on runner sneaking out of the backfield.
\"DAL +1
ATL3 3-3-DAL 45 (7:16) (Shotgun) M.Ryan pass deep right to J.Jones for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass complete on a \"post pattern.\"EVEN
ATL3 1-10-ATL 11 (3:09) D.Freeman right guard to ATL 27 for 16 yards (J.Wilcox).ATL +1
ATL3 3-6-ATL 46 (:26) (Shotgun) M.Ryan scrambles up the middle to DAL 36 for 18 yards (S.Lee).ATL +2
ATL4 2-6-ATL 42 (8:51) D.Freeman right end to DAL 41 for 17 yards (S.Lee)ATL +3

Once again, the ebb and flow of the Toxic Events crystalizes the roller coaster of the game. Once the big plays stopped for Dallas and swung in Atlanta’s favor, the story of the game was written. This is an interesting theme that appears to have carried over from 2014 and is starting to paint a picture that slow and methodical is a recipe for being beaten.

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____AIKMAN EFFICIENCY RATINGS____

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I was first introduced to the Aikman Efficiency Rankings via O.C.C.’s article on Blogging The Boys back in September of 2014. In it, (available here) he references an interview that Tm Colishaw did with Cowboys DC Rod Marinelli. Marinelli stated that the only two stats he pays attention to are turnovers and the Aikman Efficiency Rankings. Let that sink in; if our DC holds it in such high regard, it should be part of The Notebook!

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\"\"Aikman.com
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_PRIMARY DIFFERENTIAL RANKINGS_

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We all know that it is a passing league, while running the football undoubtedly has an effect on the passing game, and more importantly how the opposition defends it. In the end, though, passing success is what leads to team success.

\n

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There are generally two stats that are easily calculated that seem to have a high correlation to predicting future success; Passer Rating differential and Adjusted Net Yards Per Passing Attempt differential. Both are calculated by simply finding the difference between what your offense achieves in each category and taking away what your defense gives up. Teams with the larger differentials are more likely to have future success (read: wins) than those teams with smaller, or negative differentials.

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In statistics, this relationship between wins and PRD is called a correlation. The strength of the correlation is measured by the \"correlation coefficient\". The correlation coefficient measures the relationship between two variables. This coefficient is often referred to as \"r²\" and is expressed as a number between 1 and -1. The closer the r² number is to 1 or -1, the stronger the relationship between the two variables. The closer it is to zero, the weaker the relationship.

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R² between PRD and wins in 2013 was 0.71, an astonishingly high correlation. It is almost as good as scoring differential (0.89) at predicting the W/L record of an NFL team.

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PASSER RATING DIFFERENTIAL

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RankTmGOff RatingDef RatingDifferential
1Arizona Cardinals3117.858.659.2
2Green Bay Packers3135.479.256.2
3Buffalo Bills3116.178.138
4New England Patriots3119.690.229.4
5Cincinnati Bengals312194.726.3
6Denver Broncos383.35825.3
7Tennessee Titans3109.285.523.7
8Carolina Panthers386.566.320.2
9Dallas Cowboys3101.481.719.7
10San Diego Chargers3104.387.616.7
11New York Jets378.466.511.9
12Atlanta Falcons398.690.48.2
13New York Giants397.9907.9
14Pittsburgh Steelers3112.2108.83.4
15Oakland Raiders399.598.90.6
16Minnesota Vikings380.185.4-5.3
17St. Louis Rams386.694-7.4
18Philadelphia Eagles372.581.7-9.2
19Seattle Seahawks394.2104.3-10.1
20Baltimore Ravens382.292.8-10.6
21Cleveland Browns389.9102.9-13
22Houston Texans370.585.4-14.9
23Washington Redskins381.396.3-15
24Kansas City Chiefs386.4101.9-15.5
25Miami Dolphins385.5101.8-16.3
26Tampa Bay Buccaneers377.9100.3-22.4
27Jacksonville Jaguars378.3102.2-23.9
28Detroit Lions378.7106.7-28
29Indianapolis Colts365.195.1-30
30New Orleans Saints385.4119.6-34.2
31San Francisco 49ers371.1111.6-40.5
32Chicago Bears369.2123.8-54.6

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Now we’re getting somewhere. Notice the high correlation of passer ratings for teams at the bottom and top of these rankings to actual records. Teams that betray their records, like the Giants, had two wins slip out of their hands. Dallas is clearly superior to New Orleans in the passing game, with the obvious caveat of who is lining up at quarterback and the risk associated with earning these ratings.

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ANY/A DIFFERENTIAL

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Adjusted Net Yards Per Pass Attempt, or ANY/A, comes in third when it comes to correlating to victory with an R2 coefficient of 0.69. What exactly is ANY/A?

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ANY/A: Adjusted net passing yards per attempt = (Passing Yards + (Passing TDs)*20 - (INTs thrown)*45 - Sack Yards) / (Passing Attempts + Sacks)

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It’s basically a formula that takes into account sacks and interceptions in qualifying how efficient a team is in the passing game. Here’s how the team’s square up in this metric.

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RankTmOff ANY/ADEF ANY/ADifferential
1Arizona Cardinals103.46.6
2Green Bay Packers10.15.24.9
3Cincinnati Bengals10.364.3
4New England Patriots9.15.73.4
5Denver Broncos4.92.52.4
6Carolina Panthers6.342.3
7Buffalo Bills7.75.52.2
8St. Louis Rams6.551.5
9Tennessee Titans7.561.5
10Atlanta Falcons7.76.31.4
11Pittsburgh Steelers8.67.31.3
12Dallas Cowboys75.91.1
13New York Giants7.66.51.1
14New York Jets54.50.5
15San Diego Chargers76.60.4
16Oakland Raiders7.27.5-0.3
17Tampa Bay Buccaneers66.6-0.6
18Philadelphia Eagles4.65.3-0.7
19Minnesota Vikings4.75.8-1.1
20Baltimore Ravens5.86.9-1.1
21Cleveland Browns6.67.9-1.3
22Jacksonville Jaguars5.77.3-1.6
23Washington Redskins5.16.7-1.6
24Houston Texans4.76.4-1.7
25Kansas City Chiefs5.37.1-1.8
26Seattle Seahawks5.57.4-1.9
27Miami Dolphins5.88.2-2.4
28Detroit Lions4.97.7-2.8
29Indianapolis Colts4.37.4-3.1
30Chicago Bears4.38.7-4.4
31New Orleans Saints610.6-4.6
32San Francisco 49ers3.88.9-5.1

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Again, we see that Philadelphia’s success has so much to do with their special teams prowess. When that isn’t clicking, they tend to look closer to last week than their good weeks.

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______WEEK 4 DVOA RANKINGS______

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DVOA is a metric, devised by Football Outsiders, which measures success on each play as compared to league average based on \"a number of variables including down, distance, location on field, current score gap, quarter, and opponent quality.” The metric is outputted in “percentage points better than average”.

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
COWBOYSOffense DVOADefense DVOAST DVOATotal DVOA
Value4.1%3.8%0.6%0.9%
Team Rank12th21th17th15th
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
SAINTSOffense DVOADefense DVOAST DVOATotal DVOA
Value-4.9%26.4%-1.2%-32.4%
Team Rank18th31th20th29th

Suffice to say, DVOA is not a fan of the Saints effort thus far, and is lukewarm on the Cowboys. The rankings speak for themselves in indicating that this is a matchup that theoretically Dallas should be able to secure a win in.

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