What The Rams-Titans Trade Means To Cowboys

The Rams get more value than you think, if they're right. The Titans get more picks and therefore more chances to be right. And what does the blockbuster NFL Draft trade mean to the Cowboys? A Premium breakdown:

Conventional wisdom isn't always right because -- no disrespect to the football-watching world -- many of us know infinitely less than we think we know.

To wit: The idea that the Titans-Rams blockbuster trade suddenly "changes everything'' for the Dallas Cowboys!

Or ... The idea that because the Titans got so many picks in the deal -- twice as many as the Rams! -- they somehow "fleeced'' LA.

Let's do the second claim first:

As Fish is explaining today on 105.3 The Fan today, the "Trade Value Chart'' gives us some "rates of currency'' to measure the value of all these picks being exchanged.

Here's what the Titans get:

*2016 15th pick = 1050 points

*2016 43rd pick = 470 points

*2016 45th pick = 450 points

*2016 76th pick = 210 points

* 2017 1st round (let’s put it in the middle and assume 15th overall)

*2017 3rd round (middle, assuming 79th overall)

Titans TOTAL = 3,425 points

Here's what the Rams get:

*2016 1st pick = 3,000  points

*2016 113th pick = 68 points

*2016 177th pick = 21.8 points

Rams TOTL = 3,089.8 points

Look at the two totals. The Titans "outpoint'' the Rams, 3,425 points to 3,089.8 points. So the Titans "win'' -- but by only 335 points, the equivalent of a late second-round pick.

In other words, according to the chart (as Fish reports, developed inside Valley Ranch by Cowboys exec Mike McCoy and then implemented by Jimmy Johnson and now wide-spread in use in one form or another across the NFL), the Rams overpaid by a late second-rounder. By one pick. Something they will have been happy to do if their guy (Carson Wentz? Jared Goff?) becomes a stud QB. Right?


Well, when you put it that way ... right.

Now to more wrongheaded "conventional wisdom'' as it relates to Dallas, and it goes something like this: "Oh, no, there goes the guy the Cowboys wanted! That changes their board!''

Actually, this trade, impactful as it is in so many ways, doesn't alter Dallas' board at all. The board is built on ranking talent; if, say, Goff ends up being the No. 1 pick, he can still be No. 1 on Dallas' board. And then, when he's picked by the Rams, the Cowboys war room simply turns its attention to the next guy. And the next.


Will the Rams pick "Dallas' guy''? There is no way right now to know who Dallas' guy is. If it was Goff, and he's gone? Play on. If it was Wentz? Same thing (though CHQ's impression is that it's not Wentz in Dallas.) If the Rams and Browns (at No. 2) both take a QB, and both those QBs were rated in the top two spots on Dallas' overall wish list? That would be unfortunate ... and that would be the only impact here. Otherwise, a dozen options remain in play. What if Dallas' favorite QB is the third guy and he remains at No. 4? What if it's Ezekiel Elliott or Jalen Ramsey or Myles Jack? What if there is great value in sliding down a few picks from No. 4? What if Tennessee calls and wants to give you a pair of picks to jump back up to No. 4 to take Laremy Tunsil? Or what if the Cowboys go ahead and draft Tunsil because he was one of their top two guys on the board all along?

Only in the singular event that the Rams take the player at No. 1 that Dallas was going to take at No. 4 -- and among the dozen possibilities that is certainly among them, however slight -- does this trade create some sort of war-room earthquake at Valley Ranch. Otherwise, it's business at usual.

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