Who could leave Dallas?

It was announced Thursday at the Cowboys offered contracts to 11 of their free agents (while signing cornerback Cletis Gordon to a one-year extension). Who presents the biggest risk of leaving town?

The list: wide receiver Miles Austin got a first-round and third-round tender; defensive end Marcus Spears got a first-round offer; safety Gerald Sensabaugh, center Cory Proctor, wide receiver Sam Hurd, nose tackle Junior Siavii and defensive ends Jason Hatcher and Stephen Bowen got second-round offers; center Duke Preston got a fourth-round offer; safety Patrick Watkins got a fifth-round offer and offensive tackle Pat McQuistan received a seventh-round offer.

So who presents the biggest risk of leaving town?

Austin likely is going nowhere. Sure, there are teams out there that gladly would trade a first-rounder and third-rounder for him and sign him to a long-term deal, but Dallas owner Jerry Jones has said he has no intention of letting Austin get out of town. In other words, Jones envisions a long-term deal with Austin, but gave him the tender just in case.

Second-round tenders are higher than many envisioned for the likes of Bowen, Hatcher, Hurd and even Siavii, and they all probably will be back.

The most likely to leave, or to get offers Dallas will choose not to match, are safeties Gerald Sensabaugh and Patrick Watkins. Sensabaugh had an excellent season — some around Valley Ranch thought he deserved Pro Bowl consideration — so good that some team will conclude he is worth a second-round pick (assuming Jones doesn't cut Ken Hamlin to free up money for Sensabaugh, which would not be a total shocker).

Watkins, on the other hand, is like the football equivalent of Darius Miles and Kwame Brown.

Remember them? The former first-round picks of the Los Angeles Clippers and Washington Wizards, respectively, were saddled with enormous expectations because of their enormous physical gifts. But Miles and Brown also were wildly inconsistent; Miles is out of the NBA, and Brown might as well be, toiling away in anonymity at the end of the Detroit Pistons' bench.

The comparison isn't entirely accurate — Miles' career was cut short by injuries, and Watkins is a valued special teams contributer and backup safety — but his raw height and speed make him one of the NFL's most appealing safety prospects.

Watkins is excellent on special teams (if Jones can insist that last year's team was about "drafting for special teams," then it's hard to believe re-sign one of his own special teams leaders), but has gotten little more than occasional spot duty on defense.

But at this point, nobody has been able to get him to play consistently. Some coach out there will think, "I can help him reach his potential." When a team gets enamored with his height, speed and long arms, someone will pay for Watkins … and it might be a lot.

Sensabaugh was among the team's key players this season, and Watkins was a very underrated contributor. It's hard to imagine Jones allowing both to leave.

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