The Patriots were held to 13 points or less in four of those five games, and they scored a whopping 17 in the other one.
Why this has happened is open to debate, but the Dolphins' propensity to play great defense at home certainly is a factor.
The Dolphins sure played awesome defense the last time they were at home this season, the Sunday night victory over Buffalo.
Truth is, the Dolphins have played very good defense — anywhere — in recent weeks, even though they're giving up more yardage than usual.
But the Dolphins have been making big play after big play on defense, thanks to some great coverage in the secondary and some outstanding pressure up front, led by Adewale Ogunleye.
We look for that to continue against a New England offensive line that is mediocre at best.
The Patriots don't have the type of running game to keep the Dolphins pass rush honest, so it could be a field day again for Ogunleye and Jason Taylor.
The key for the Dolphins winning this game will be getting some kind of production out of the offense because we truthfully don't see the Dolphins winning many games playing offense the way they did last Sunday at Jacksonville.
The guy who needs to step it up the most is Jay Fiedler, and we look for him to have a better day on Sunday.
Don't be surprise if he uses his leg to come up with a big play.
Ricky Williams gained 185 at Foxboro when the teams met last December, but we don't see him coming anywhere close to that number because New England is playing much better run defense this season also because the Pats will be keying on Williams — just like everybody else.
Neither team has been as impressive so far this season as their record would suggest, but we think this is where the Dolphins start separating themselves from the Pats and the rest of the division.
We see a trend continuing here.
The call: Dolphins 24, Patriots 13.