Will it happen?
No need to break out your calculators because I took care of it. Here are the numbers.
McCoy has played in 86 games in his career and has tallied 6,491 rushing yards. The near 6,500 yards is good for 71st all time on the career rushing list.
71st does not seem that high on the list, but consider the names he has surpassed in just his sixth year in the league. Larry Johnson, Calvin Hill, and the Philly Phaithful’s own Steve Van Buren are in Shady’s rear-view mirror.
As a matter of fact, McCoy is on pace to own the Birds’ rushing record after Sunday’s contest against the Seahawks. Shady needs just 48 yards to break Wilbert Montgomery’s record 6,538 yards gained in an Eagles uniform. Montgomery owned the record since 1984.
McCoy’s first start was on September 27th, 2009 against the Chiefs. The rookie ran for 84 yards on 20 carries and a touchdown in a 34-14 win against Kansas City.
Over his near six years in the league, McCoy has averaged 75.5 yards a game.
His most impressive season was last year with 1,607 yards on 314 carries.
2013 was the lone year McCoy started every game in a season. Though he has yet to miss a game this season.
With four games remaining this season, Shady has 1,018 yards on the ground, which is third most in the league. That stat in itself is astounding, as McCoy had putrid game totals of 17, 19, and 22 yards earlier this year.
He has just four 100 yard rushing games so far. However, the former Pittsburgh Panther is getting hot when it matters, as two of them have come in the last two weeks.
The streak might come to an end this week, as the Birds play host to the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks. Seattle comes into the contest with the 5th best rushing defense in the league, giving up 86.3 yards a game.
For the Eagles to win this 4:25 date with the ‘Hawks, the success of the running game will be imperative. All four of Seattle’s losses have come when the opponent eclipses the century mark on the ground.
I personally do not see McCoy reaching triple digits on his own, but perhaps the three-headed attack of McCoy, Sproles, and Polk will lead the Eagles to the key component of beating the champs.
Philly’s last three games are against their division rivals. LeSean’s two highest outputs of the season have come against the Giants (149) and most recently the Cowboys (159). The Eagles home finale will be against the Cowboys next Sunday in front of America in prime time.
I would be shocked to see Dallas struggle as much as they did against the Eagles on Thanksgiving. Especially because of the extra rest they will have coming off a Thursday Night game against the Bears.
Nevertheless, It’s totally plausible Shady can break off a couple of big runs and get to the 100 yard plateau in front of the hometown fans.
The Redskins do not have a lot to boast about, but they do have a very solid rush defense. Currently 9th overall in the league, Washington shut down Shady to a mere 22 yards on 19 carries in the brouhaha back in Week 3.
It couldn’t get worse, right?
Plus, the Redskins are now rockin’ their best Sixers impression, riding a four game losing streak and a 3-9 record into the weekend. The tanking for Mariota might already be in full effect.
“To the victor go the spoils,” and McCoy might be the most victorious in Week 16.
Speaking of tanking. I’m proud to say the team on the longest losing streak in the league right now are the New York Giants.
New York, home of the 31st ranked rush defense, give up 140.6 rushing yards a game. They are the opponent for the Eagles in the final week of the season. If there was any team the McCoy could run on, it’s the Giants.
Right now, McCoy averages 84.8 yards a game. If he simply hits that average for each of his remaining games, he would total 339 yards.
If he reaches what each of his opponent’s give up, he would amass 441 yards.
My verdict: McCoy has been on fire, but won’t get to the point of rushing for 110 yards a game for the final four weeks of the season. He will struggle against Seattle, but will make up for it in his final two contests on the road in Washington and East Rutherford. I predict a total of 1,408 yards on the season.
Last year around this time, the NFL was congratulating Adrian Peterson on his amazing accomplishment of being the third fastest player ever to gain 10,000 yards. At the age of 28, Peterson made the mark in his 101st career game.
With 86 games in the books, It is apparent McCoy will not reach that achievement in 101 games.
By the start of the season next year, Shady will be 27 and approximately 3,100 yards away from 10k.
For McCoy to achieve the glory of 10,000 yards before 30 years old, the running back can realistically take two paths.
The first one would be have another 1,600 yard or so year on the ground in 2015. Then the runner can clean up the final 1,500 yards over the following two years. Pounding the rock in 2015 will definitely help the cause, but would put ware on the tires for the following years.
The second path would be continue what the coach has called so far. Through what we have seen with Chip Kelly’s game plan, McCoy has not had a game over 25 carries. Therefore, LeSean could average 1,200 yards a season, and still be healthy after the age of 30.
This route would be similar to what the Giants did with Tiki Barber. Barber owns two of the three seasons in NFL history where a 30+ year old has rushed for over 1,500 yards in a year (And those were for 1,860 and 1,662 yards).
Most important to the cause, #25 will have to stay healthy. Any injury that would make him miss six or more games would significantly hinder his chances at the achievement.