More On The Draft
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- Fun With Draft Stats- DT's
The moniker- "Get your big guys early" certainly applies when we look at the draft statistics over the past decade. Without including the 2010 draft which featured Ndamukong Suh, Tyson Alualu and Gerald McCoy, our research clearly shows that Round One is the spot to beef up the middle of your defense. Of the 33 defensive tackles selected in the first round, 15 have worked out (became solid starters) for a hit rate of 45.5 percent. Pro Bowlers such as Haloti Ngata, Vince Wilfork, Tommie Harris, John Henderson, Marcus Stroud and Albert Haynesworth were all found by their respective teams in Round One.
What about the second round?
If you don't get your defensive tackle in the first round then it may be in your best interests to just wait. Our research shows that tackles selected in the second round have just a 20 percent hit rate (4 for 20). The 2001 draft may have yielded Pro Bowlers Kris Jenkins and Shaun Rogers in Round Two, but that was 10 years ago and there really hasn't been much to speak of at the position since. There 25+ percent drop in the hit rate from the first round to the second is the largest of any defensive position. In fact, the 20 percent hit rate is the lowest of any defensive position and the only position lower in the second round is quarterback.
Round Three has to be better, right?
The short answer is no. Defensive tackles selected in the third round have just a 10.3 percent hit rate (3 of 29), the lowest of any defensive position and the lowest of any position other than quarterback. For every diamond in the rough like Terrance Knighton there have been nearly ten times as many Claude Wroten's and Donnell Washington's.
What about the late-round picks?
Although late-round defensive tackles still have a low nine percent hit rate (11 of 122), the risk is minimal drafting in the fourth round and beyond. That nine percent rate is roughly middle of the pack when you take into account all the positions, both offensive and defensive. Solid starters that were found late include Corey Williams, Issac Sopoaga, Domata Peko, Paul Soliai and Kyle Williams.
Overall, our stats clearly show that the place to find a solid defensive tackle is Round One, and if you don't get one there, you probably shouldn't bother taking a shot for a while. This year's draft may prove this wrong as there will be several solid prospects that may be available in the second round and beyond, including Marvin Austin, Phil Taylor and Ian Williams. With that said, our research is based on facts so draft accordingly.
Charlie Bernstein is the host of "The Conundrum" on the Aquarius 7 Broadcasting Network (national), and Editor-in-Chief of Sports Media Interactive, covering multiple teams in the National Football League, NCAA, and National Basketball Association. Charlie covers the Jacksonville Jaguars for FoxSports and has been featured on the NFL Network and Sirius NFL Radio. Charlie is also a member of the Pro Football Writers of America.