Simulators Like Henne Better Than Bortles

Find out about the Jaguars postseason odds when backup quarterbacks are taken into account. The results may surprise you.

They say that nobody knows more about sports than the oddsmakers in Las Vegas. It's usually explained that those big, pretty buildings were not built on people leaving Sin City ahead.

That may be true, but sports betting didn't build the buildings, slots and table games did.

We're not saying that we know more than Las Vegas, but in this situation, being at training camp and watching every play of the Jacksonville Jaguars does make us experts to a certain extent.

In a very interesting story on the Scout.com network, Tim Yotter read on PredictionMachine.com (who runs game simulations) how each team would fare if their backup quarterback was forced to play out the season.

As anyone would expect, some of the game's greats prove to be the most irreplaceable- Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Tony Romo and Matt Ryan- in terms of the percentage drop of their team's making the postseason.

What was interesting is that the Jaguars are the only team whose odds actually raise when Chad Henne is in for Blake Bortles.

Instead of being distraught about this revelation, be confident as I am that robots will not be taking over the world any time soon.

Based on 2014 statistics, some would reasonably believe that Henne is indeed the better man for the job. With that said, if you had working eyes you'd believe differently. Throwing the statistics out, Henne has topped out (or some would say bottomed). Although he would make fewer mistakes than Bortles did in his rookie season, the Jaguars 2014 first-round pick is more decisive, has better feet and is learning more about the position every day.

“It was probably mentally, for the most part," Bortles said about his progression. "Just decision-making, obviously, [and] being able to throw the ball accurately was a big part of what I wanted to do. But I felt really good and comfortable mentally with protections, with concepts, with schemes, [and] with the defense. That was encouraging, and that’s something I continue to work on.”

Even though Henne has had a nice training camp so far, it's clear to everyone that Blake Bortles is the superior quarterback. In a moment of truth, it's more than likely that Henne himself would even admit that.

This particular simulator shows the Jaguars have a 2.3 percent chance to make the postseason with Bortles under center for 16 games. That seems a little low in a division with the Titans and Texans. With Henne at quarterback they figure it to be 4.6 percent, a 100 percent increase.

Again, these predictors seem to make a lot of sense with the other teams, but regarding the Jaguars this couldn't be farther from the truth.


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