It’s no secret Allen Robinson won’t make it out of the second round in most fantasy leagues (10 or more teams) and definitely in PPR format. The 22-year-old receiver logged 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns on only 80 catches. He has the size to play big, as well as the ability to take the top off the defense. Just where does he stack up amongst the best such as Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant, Odell Beckham Jr. or DeAndre Hopkins? Does he have more worth than a 31-year-old Jordy Nelson coming off an ACL tear? The truth is Allen Robinson provides a lot of upside; he is young and proved himself early in his career. The “sophomore slump” did not happen and entering his third year, he will take another step forward. He belongs in the top 5 at WR and proved that last season.
Blake Bortles is an interesting case at quarterback. He was third in the league in touchdowns last year with 35. The big three quarterbacks in fantasy remain Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers, and Cam Newton. Many consider the next wave to be Carson Palmer and Russell Wilson. Blake Bortles belongs in the category of the second tier. He is entering his third season and made a huge leap last year. There is no reason to believe he is not capable of scoring more fantasy points than Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, Philip Rivers or Tom Brady (missing four games) who are older and have higher injury risk. Bortles isn’t perfect, his completion percentage needs to improve and the interceptions have to go down (18 last year). However, he brings and big arm to throw the ball down field, size and the ability to rush for touchdowns. This puts him in the second wave of quarterbacks usually between rounds 5-7, exactly where he belongs.
The hidden gems of the Jags fantasy value lies in Allen Hurns, Julius Thomas and Marqise Lee. Hurns just got paid (4 years $40 million) but still holds that chip on his shoulder in camp. He has played all over at wide receiver and will see plenty of time in the slot as a safety blanket for Blake Bortles. His touchdowns will go down (10 last year), but he will see more catches in a faster offense.
Julius Thomas entered the season injured last year. He missed all of training camp, preseason and the first four games. It showed in his return as he looked sluggish and consistently battled injuries. He has made a 180 this training camp. The difference between him and many tight ends is speed. He can line up like a receiver and run the routes. He is being overlooked for guys like Travis Kelce, Greg Olsen and Jordan Reed, but he is every bit as talented as them. Expect a huge bounce back in his second year with the Jags.
Marqise Lee is perhaps the strangest case in this receiving core. He was taken in the second round in 2014 before Allen Robinson. The original idea was having him and A-Rob as their two main receivers. Lee just couldn’t stay healthy and it cost him his starting Job to Allen Hurns. Lee has looked great in camp; he is the fastest receiver on the field and looks every bit like his time at USC. He is a burner and could give the Jags another legitimate deep threat alongside Allen Robinson. His injury risk is still a factor, but if he is still around in the later rounds, take this man and don’t look back.
Stay away from the running backs. Chris Ivory and T.J. Yeldon are both talented players. The fact is they are splitting carries. You just don’t want those kinds of running backs on your team. You want a bell cow that touches the ball 25 times a game.