Ahman Green: This one's a no-brainer. The Packers started two and sometimes three rookie offensive linemen. Another lineman, Scott Wells, was in his first season as the full-time starting center. The best run blocker, veteran right tackle Mark Tauscher, missed five games. His left tackle, Chad Clifton, battled through an injury-plagued season.
First-year coach Mike McCarthy was implementing the zone running scheme, creating a lengthy adjustment period.
Oh, did I mention Green suffered a season-ending injury last season?
Through it all, Green rushed for 1,059 yards and 4.0 yards per rush in the just-concluded season.
Green's not what he was in his prime, but he's far from finished. Barring another team opening the vault — highly unlikely considering Green will turn 31 in February — there's a 95 percent chance he will be back.
Robert Ferguson: In five of Ferguson's six seasons, Ferguson caught 27 or fewer passes, including just five receptions this past season.
In 13 games in his first NFL season, Ruvell Martin caught 21 passes. Not bad, considering he didn't catch his first pass until the sixth game.
Ferguson's cap charge: $2.8 million, the 10th-highest figure on the team. Martin's cap charge: $275,000, the second-lowest of the players on the 53-man roster.
If you're looking for bang for the buck, there's a 10 percent chance Ferguson — with a cap figure of $3.2 million in 2007 and under contract through 2008 — will be back.
Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila: KGB will lug a cap figure of almost $6.6 million into 2007. That's an awful lot of money for a part-time player.
But it's pretty clear that Ted Thompson is building a defense-first team. If KGB, in his new/original role as a pass rusher, returns to the form in which he averaged 12.25 sacks from 2001 to 2004, wouldn't he be worth the money, even if he's only playing 20 snaps a game?
I think there's at least a 75 percent chance Gbaja-Biamila will be a Packer for training camp. It will be his play in camp and during the preseason that will determine whether he actually makes the final roster.
But Henderson will turn 36 in February and clearly isn't close to what he used to be just a couple years ago. Henderson, who moonlighted last offseason as draft analyst for ESPN and has co-hosted a Packers show for a Green Bay television station for the past eight years, sounded like a man who's looking forward to a new phase in his life.
"It's time for me to give my son his due and my daughter her due, and give my wife some time," Henderson told the Green Bay Press-Gazette. "I'm hopefully going to be working on my other career, getting in front of the camera some more, doing some things."
Henderson signed a two-year contract last offseason after flirting with the Minnesota Vikings. The guess is there's a 95 percent chance the proud and classy veteran announces his retirement before the draft.
Bubba Franks: The veteran tight end has had back-to-back miserable seasons. He's only rarely a target in the passing game, and considering all the blocking he was asked to do in both the running and passing games this past season, it's no wonder he exhibited the hands of an offensive lineman.
Franks too often was the whipping boy for the Packers' offensive woes. With that said, parting ways may make both sides happy.
Franks' $1.6 million cap charge is pretty steep for a player who's no longer a threat in the passing game. Franks has been a good soldier, but he's become disillusioned with how he was used by Mike Sherman in 2005 and Mike McCarthy in 2006, especially after McCarthy and offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski promised him a bigger role. He's caught a total of one touchdown the previous two seasons after scoring seven times in 2004.
The tight end position as a whole was a disappointment, and Thompson and McCarthy may be leaning toward blowing it up and starting over, so there's no more than a 25 percent chance Franks will be back.
David Martin: No matter his talent level, there's no way the Packers can bring back Martin, who always seems to be injured once the team shows some faith in him.
From Martin's standpoint, maybe it's time for a change of scenery in hopes of changing his luck.
Martin is an unrestricted free agent next season, and it's hard to imagine any teams spending much on him. Still, even at what figures to be a bargain price, there's no more than a 10 percent chance Martin will return.
Lawrence is a regular contributor to PackerReport.com. Send comments to firstname.lastname@example.org.