You can't be Super without a super QB

History shows that the Packers need Aaron Rodgers to be more than just OK if they are going to win a Super Bowl once the post-Favre era begins,'s Steve Lawrence says.

It's been said countless times, but Aaron Rodgers' development is the key to the Green Bay Packers' long-term success — or failure.

Super Bowl XLI was the latest bit of proof, when the Peyton Manning-led Indianapolis Colts handled the Rex Grossman-led Chicago Bears.

Hall of Fame quarterbacks — and those who are beyond a shadow of a doubt bound for the Hall, such as Brett Favre, Tom Brady and Manning — are a combined 29-16 in the Super Bowl. Eleven of those defeats came when one Hall of Famer beat another, such as when John Elway and the Denver Broncos beat Favre and the Packers in Super Bowl XXXII.

A Hall of Fame quarterback hasn't lost to a non-Hall of Famer since Super Bowl XXVI, when Jim Kelly and the Bills lost to Mark Rypien and the Redskins.

Beyond Hall of Famers, only once since Super Bowl XXVI has a clearly superior quarterback lost to a clearly inferior quarterback. That was Super Bowl XXXVII, when Brad Johnson and Tampa Bay beat NFL MVP Rich Gannon and Oakland.

History shows the Packers can get to the Super Bowl with only a decent quarterback. See this year's Bears, Jake Delhomme's Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl XXXVIII and Trent Dilfer's Baltimore Ravens, who beat Kerry Collins' New York Giants in Super Bowl XXXV.

But unless you have an overwhelming defense — like Dilfer's Ravens and Johnson's Buccaneers — history shows you're not going to win a Super Bowl without a well above-average quarterback.


 Lawrence is a regular contributor to Send comments to

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