Mock Draft – v3.0's W. Keith Roerdink provides his latest version of the first round of the upcoming NFL draft.

With most of the college 'Pro Days' already completed, players had a chance to solidify their status, sway the doubters and in some cases, move up the draft board. And if someone's rising, that means someone else is falling. But don't let the Combine or a player's Pro Day fool you. True value lies in what a player did over three or four years of Saturdays. How did they play when they had talent around them? How did they play when they didn't? Did they play down to their competition or dominate them? Did they step up in big spots? Did they take plays off?

It's a lot easier to look good in shorts and a T-shirt. And while I'm not a scout, I put my faith in consistent production over an extended time period, not one day in February and one day in March. That said, there's not a lot of movement at the top of my draft board from version 1.0 (March 7, Detroit, however, could change all of this by trading down, allowing some receiver-hungry team to move up and grab Georgia Tech's Calvin Johnson.

Free agency moves have also filled holes for some teams and created some for others. Unfortunately for Packer fans, one of those moves was Willis McGahee going from Buffalo to Baltimore. That puts the Bills in the market for a franchise back and there's a good chance they'll select Cal's Marshawn Lynch four spots before Green Bay can grab him. But with needs at running back, tight end and safety, the Packers should have no problem finding an impact player and likely starter with the No. 16 pick.

Check back on April 4 for another updated version, but with most free agents of note long gone and the Packers' brass holding tight to their wallet while they stare longingly at Randy Moss, their draft strategy may not change much at all.

But before we get too far ahead of ourselves, let's take a look at's Mock Draft v 3.0:

1. Oakland Raiders: QB JaMarcus Russell, LSU
He's No. 1 with a bullet after a pro day that had scouts drooling. He's said to have the strongest arm of any signal caller in the NFL right now. That alone makes him the perfect fit for the Raiders offense, though Cleveland GM Phil Savage may make a strong push to get into this spot and take Russell, whom he's known since the former LSU Tiger was in high school.

2. Detroit Lions: OT Joe Thomas, Wisconsin
If they don't trade down, and they certainly want to, this is the safe pick. Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn had an impressive pro day as well, but if the Lions were really locked in on Quinn, there wouldn't be so many trade rumors. Look for Detroit Rock City to solidify its line if the Lions stay at No. 2 and target Drew Stanton out of Michigan State at the top of Round 2. But a lot of teams will want to come up and grab Calvin Johnson before the Bucs pick him.

3. Cleveland Browns: RB Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma
Newly acquired Jamal Lewis got a one-year deal that could pay him more than $3 million next year. I repeat, Jamal Lewis got a ONE-YEAR deal. … See where I'm going with this? Cleveland will be hard-pressed to pass on the uber-talented Peterson, whom they could pair with Lewis for a ferocious two-headed backfield. Lewis won't like it. But Lewis isn't the GM. If you're a Packer fan, you're hoping the Browns pass on Peterson and he slips to the Bills at No. 12.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: WR Calvin Johnson, Georgia Tech
The Bucs need somebody to catch passes from whoever eventually lines up at quarterback. Johnson is arguably the best player in the draft -- not just the best receiver -- but the best player, and a no-brainer pick. He's 6-foot-5, runs a 4.3 40 and would make Chris Simms' spleen look like a Pro Bowl passer. This might be the one time Detroit wishes they took a WR in the first round.

5. Arizona Cardinals: OT Levi Brown, Penn State
A lot of mock drafts have the Cards going DL here. Uh ... let's ask Matt Leinart. Wait, help him off the ground first. If the Lions end up taking Quinn, then Thomas is the pick here, but Brown remains the second-best tackle in the draft and the Cardinals offensive line is horrible. Leinart needs better protection and Edgerrin James needs more running room. This 328-pound man-mountain will clear the way and off-set the departed Leonard Davis.

6. Washington Redskins: DT Alan Branch, Michigan
Branch is the ultimate package of speed and power. This team has outside speed but needs more inside pass rush. The Redskins also need someone to stuff the run. In Branch, they get both. This guy killed people in the Big 10 and he'll carry that over to the next level. He didn't 'wow 'em' at his pro day, but like I said, if you liked him before, you should still like him now.

7. Minnesota Vikings: DE Gaines Adams, Clemson
Quinn will be tempting here. As would WRs Ted Ginn, Jr. or Dwayne Jarrett, assuming they haven't given up on Tarvaris Jackson. But Gaines is a big-play pass rusher who notched 12.5 sacks in 13 games last year and makes the tackle combination of Kevin Williams and Pat Williams even better by providing pressure from the outside.

8. Houston Texans: QB Brady Quinn, Notre Dame
They bypassed Reggie Bush and Vince Young in last year's draft to take Mario Williams. A year later, it seems like an even worse decision, if that's possible. Detroit passed on Quinn, Minnesota passed on Quinn. I say Houston pounces on him like a fat kid on cake.

9. Miami Dolphins: WR Ted Ginn, Jr., Ohio State
They lost Wes Welker to New England but pick up one of the draft's true game-breakers. Ginn was a threat to score every time he touched the ball for the Buckeyes and he could do the same in Miami. Though small in stature, he's got big play ability, especially as a return man. He'll more than make up for Welker's departure.

10. Atlanta Falcons: S LaRon Landry, LSU
The ATL's secondary is horrible, with Chris Crocker and Lawyer Milloy being quite possibly the worst safety tandem in the league. With free agent WR Joe Horn in the fold, they can forego an offensive target for Michael Vick and take a player with Pro Bowl potential who will immediately solidify their secondary. DE is another need, but Landry will make the bigger immediate impact.

11. San Francisco 49ers: DT Amobi Okoye, Louisville
This kid played as a 16-year-old true freshman and will be a 20-year-old rookie with four years of D-1 experience. He had a great senior year at Louisville and wowed scouts at the Senior Bowl and Combine. Might have the biggest upside of any defensive player in the draft. They'll consider MLB Patrick Willis, but Okoye is too good to pass up.

12. Buffalo Bills: RB Marshawn Lynch, California
Packer fans will now have some whine to go with their cheese. Lynch would have been the perfect replacement to Ahman Green, and while the Bills could take a corner like Leon Hall to make up for the loss of Nate Clements or possibly linebacker Patrick Willis, they plug a gaping hole left by Willis McGahee's free agent defection with the dynamic back out of Cal. It would be a shock if Oklahoma's Peterson fell this far, leaving Lynch for Green Bay. But a few years back, Steven Jackson slid down to St. Louis after being projected as a top 10 pick because teams simply had more pressing needs.

13. St. Louis Rams: WR Robert Meachem
With speedy Kevin Curtis leaving, Isaac Bruce getting another year older and newly acquired Drew Bennett not exactly a big-play threat, the Arch adds this smooth 6-foot-3, 214-pounder who ran a 4.39 40 and could be the second-best wideout in the draft behind Johnson.

14. Carolina Panthers: ILB Patrick Lewis, Ole Miss
Athletic and versatile, Willis can play inside or out. Carolina has several needs, including a receiver to pair with Steve Smith, but they opt for a replacement to Dan Morgan at middle linebacker. With his stock is on the rise after a strong performance at the Senior Bowl, the Combine and his pro day, Willis a great pick here.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers: DE Jamaal Anderson, Arkansas
The junior had 19.5 tackles for loss and 13.5 sacks. Some have said his numbers are a product of the Razorback's defensive scheme, but Anderson looks like a Richard Seymour clone. He's got loads of athletic ability (he used to play receiver) and a huge upside. Steel Town needs to replace the outside pass rush of Joey Porter and this is the guy to do it.

16. Green Bay Packers: TE Greg Olsen, Miami
They wanted Lynch bad, but there's other starting positions up for grabs and TE is one of them. Olsen's stock is soaring after a terrific combine and pro day. At 6-foot-6 and 254 pounds, he's got size, speed (4.51 40 at the combine) and run-after-the-catch ability. The last time GB took a tight end from Miami it worked out pretty well -- at least for a while. Olsen can be the red-zone threat Bubba Franks was in his hey day, while stretching the defense between the 20s. Florida safety Reggie Nelson could be another option here, along with Tennessee receiver Robert Meacham, but Olsen gets the nod. Watch for the Packers to target running backs like Auburn's Kenny Irons or Arizona's Chris Henry in Round 2.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars: S Reggie Nelson, Florida
A standout for the National Champion Gators, Nelson has the toughness of a safety with the cover skills to play corner. Deon Grant left J-Ville for the Emerald City and Donovin Darius finished the last two seasons on IR. Nelson scorched a 4.35 40 at his recent pro day and he'll be a Day One starter for the Jags.

18. Cincinnati Bengals: DE Adam Carriker, Nebraska
Big and versatile, Carriker will shore up the Bengals defensive line and fill the void left by David Pollack. At 6-foot-6 and 300 pounds, he's athletic enough to play end in a 3-4 scheme and strong enough to slide inside, if needed. Carriker was probably the most dominating defender at the Senior Bowl.

19. Tennessee Titans: CB Leon Hall, Michigan
The Titans jump for joy when Hall, a top 10 talent, falls to them at this spot. A great technician, the knock on Hall was his speed after getting torched by OSU's Ted Ginn Jr. and USC's Dwayne Jarrett late in the year. But he redeemed himself with a 4.39 40-yard dash at the combine to vault back into the top CB slot. They could use another target for Vince Young or a boost for a lackluster pass rush, but by saying hello to Hall, they can say buh-bye to Pacman Jones.

20. New York Giants: OLB Lawrence Timmons, Florida State
New York released both of last season's starting outside linebackers, so Timmons would be a natural to come in and claim on of those spots. He only started one year for the Seminoles, but his athletic ability makes him the pick over Penn State's Paul Posluszny.

21. Denver Broncos: DE Jarvis Moss, Florida
One of the most active teams in free agency, they added Dre Bly to their secondary, Daniel Graham at tight end and Travis Henry to their backfield. What about their pass rush? Here it is. Moss has drawn comparisons to another former Gator defensive playmaker: Jevon Kearse. He may need to bulk up his 250-pound frame, but he'll be a great third-down rusher.

22. Dallas Cowboys: FS Brandon Meriweather, Miami
With Meriweather's off-field troubles, you'd think he'd be a natural for the Bengals, but the 'Boys secondary needs some help and the former Hurricane would pair up nicely with Roy Williams. With Nelson and Landry gone, Dallas takes a big swing here.

23. Kansas City Chiefs: WR Dwayne Bowe, LSU
This offense needs a serious upgrade to current starters Eddie Kennison and Sammie Parker. Overshadowed by the underclassman at his position, Bowe was JaMarcus Russell's favorite target at LSU and will be for Trent Green or Damon Huard. He quieted the critics by running a 4.4 40 at his pro day at 218 pounds.

24. New England Patriots: CB Darrelle Revis, Pittsburgh
The notoriously frugal New Englanders jumped into free agency with both feet this year, signing Adalius Thomas, Wes Welker and Donte Stallworth. Now they can address their secondary with the Revis, a 2006 Thorpe Award winner who's played both cornerback positions in college and just ran a 4.38 at his pro day. They really need a safety as an heir apparent to Rodney Harrison or a tight end to replace Daniel Graham, but you can never have enough good corners.

25. New York Jets: DE Anthony Spencer, Purdue
A bit undersized at 6-foot-3, 261 pounds, Spencer slides down to the bottom third of the round, but he might be the best pass rusher in the draft. He's well-suited for the Jets' 3-4 scheme and could line up as an OLB when all is said and done. The Jets have needs at CB, but they'll go for the pass rusher early.

26. Philadelphia Eagles: WR Dwayne Jarrett, USC
They've got needs at linebacker, but Jarrett can't be passed up at this spot and instantly upgrades the Eagles offense. At 6-foot-5, he's a huge target for Donovan McNabb and catches the ball with one hand as easily as most receivers do with both hands. Can a Campbell's Chunky Soup commercial with McNabb's mom be far behind?

27. New Orleans Saints: CB Chris Houston, Arkansas
The Saints secondary got absolutely exposed during the playoffs. I mean, stop, drop and roll -- burned! Houston, who is quickly moving up the draft boards, puts a stop to that. He ran a blistering 4.32 at the combine, he's got a 450-pound bench press. Better yet, the bigger the game, the better he plays.

28. New England Patriots: LB Paul Posluszny, Penn State
Without many holes to fill, New England takes an instinctive playmaker who provides depth at all four linebacker positions and could be Tedy Bruschi's eventual replacement. Posluszny could go as high as No. 15 to the Steelers, so this is a great pick if he's here.

29. Baltimore Ravens: DE Charles Johnson, Georgia
This guy shouldn't be here. And when he is, the Ravens jump on this pass rushing phenom from the SEC. Equally adept playing the run, the Ravens are sure to find a way to maximize his talents, as they did with the departed Adalius Thomas, who cashed in with the Patriots.

30. Chargers: S Michael Griffin, Texas
An instant upgrade to last year's starter, Terrence Kiel, Griffin has decent speed and is a big hitter. He'll be a nice addition to a 14-2 team that doesn't need to do much more than get out of its own way. A receiver would be tempting if someone slid, but look for the Bolts to put Griffin in those new uni's.

31. Bears: OG Justin Blalock, Texas
Three of Chicago's starting five lineman are 33 or older. Blalock, who started a school-record 51 consecutive games at Texas, can play guard or tackle and gives an injection of youth and power to the interior of the Bears' aging offensive line and can eventually replace 35-year old guard, Ruben Brown.

32. Colts: LB Jon Beason, Miami
As good as the Colts' D was in the playoffs, it got exposed during the latter half of the regular season and needs some help. With Cato June gone via free agency, Beason gives the Colts a speedy, undersized player who projects nicely into the weak-side linebacker role of their 'Tampa 2' scheme. Tony Dungy has never taken a linebacker in the first round, but there's always a first time.

W. Keith Roerdink

W. Keith Roerdink is a frequent contributor to and Packer Report magazine. Look for his next Mock Draft update on April 4. E-mail him at

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