If you are unlucky enough to live on the west coast the networks will rebroadcast Mary J. Blige, Destiny's Child, Elton John, Toby Keith, Lenny Kravitz and Jessica Simpson after the game. Fans paying thirty bucks for parking to temporarily house their land yachts around the Razor will no doubt look to lubricate frequently from the foamy nipple before even considering entering the stadium an hour earlier than usual to pay lager premiums for the profits they'll make on your unshaven face. The chicks and the coke are outside man and its not like we're going to see any pre-game skin anyway.
But how much would you love to see Kravitz rip open Jessica Simpson's honeydew cardigan during American Woman? Even if you didn't get a chance to see it live due to tape delay at least you'd see it the next morning on your favorite spank site. I called the NFL press office requesting another pole dance inspired number for the show but I was put on hold before I could ask. I also wanted to ask the officious press officer whether or not the NFL hated Arizona, but I never got the chance since I got disconnected and all redial attempts yielded a busy signal.
Despite a B-list offering before the show, the nation's eyes will tune into the Razor Thursday night at 9 pm as the New England Patriots host the Indianapolis Colts in a rematch of last year's AFC Championship Game. And this should provide a good kick-off game for this season. As the dinosaurs wait for calls from their aged demographic and islands in the Caribbean sink an inch from all the dead money they'll absorb in week one, we at home turn our attention to what really matters, picking winners on our favorite blood sport.
301 and 302 is a lousy connecting room in the old Howard Johnson's on Comm Ave. but it is also the card's best game this week. The over/under has soared from 43.5 to 46 in recent days, but considering what the weather gals are saying, the number will plummet as Frances crawls up Providence Turnpike.
I wonder who bets totals a week before a game when a wet field and slippery balls makes all the difference? There are other reasons to tune in to the weather. Gamblers will have to lay $1.80 on the line if they want to back the defending champions. Colts backers will experience $1.60 return on their money line investment of $1.00. Las Vegas Sports Consultants have installed the Patriots as a three point home favorite and that line has not budged.
For a local fanatic, there is no better feeling than the Patriots as defending champs and hosting the Week 1 home opener against the same team they've made their bitch for the past four years. But if you are a systems player there is no better feeling than the situation that occurs this Thursday night.
Simply put; since the millennium, the team that has won the championship title game has covered their first game the following season. How is that for a comfort? For those of us not lucky enough to call in our wagers from the dugout should note that this system play is 3-0 during the past three years. There is also a part two of this system play but we'll get into that next week.
In 2002 Tampa Bay hoisted the Vince Lombardi trophy when they beat Oakland as a four point 'dog 48-21. The Buccaneers traveled to Philadelphia for their first game in 2003 for a rematch of the NFC title game and won as a three point road 'dog 17-0. When New England (a fourteen point underdog) beat St. Louis 20-17 in 2001 they won their 2002 home opener against Pittsburgh as a two point home dog 30-14.The 2000 Baltimore Ravens annihilated the NY Giants 34-7 for their first trophy post relocation. The Ravens hosted Chicago as a ten-point favorite in their 2001 opener and won 17-6. This year it is Belichick again in control of the Patriots on their first game after a championship title.
The caveat emptor for system players on this trend is that in 1999 coming off their win over the Tennessee Titans, the St. Louis Rams hosted the Denver Broncos as a six point home favorite and lost the game outright 41-36 and costing system backers an early loss.
Always a Good Decision
But the faithful, though, don't want to sweat out the game. Why pick the hard ones? Consider that Patriots-Colts tilt will feature two of the leagues best kickers (QBs, RBs, and WRs as well) and while the spread squats at 3 points it means that the best probable outcome for Patriots' backers dropping a dime on the line is a push. I hate to say it, but this game has vigorish all over it so we'll eschew the side play for a total play. Here is why, like Samuel Adams, this total play is always a good decision.
Last year the Patriots held opponents to a league leading 14.9 points per game. And at home they were even better allowing 6.25 points in their last eight games!
The Patriots secondary, second to none, also led the league in interceptions. The Patriots were an astounding +17 in the turnover margin category in the regular season and +20 overall.
While there are changes to last year's squad, defensively the return of [Rosevelt] Colvin should reduce the pain of losing NT [Ted] Washington.
On the other side of the line the Colts bring their dog and pony show to the Razor that last year had a +10 turnover margin, a vast improvement over the previous two years when the Colts went -8 and -14 respectively.
However, the Colts defense has given rise to the lyrical "Dungy's Dolts" expression and if these horses want to shed that image they'll have to play better on defense. While the Colts ended last year 11th in overall defense, Indianapolis was a fetid 20th rank against the rush and sacked the quarterback only 31 times, of which tenacious DE Freeny accounted for a third!
Even though Dungy is known for his solid defense the Colts must improve against the rush. No time like the present for this to happen. They'll have to earn their real estate especially when Belichick test-drives his pimped out car with the gold package on national television.
Does Corey Dillon have another 278-yard game in him? Against this defense he might. Of course he's lost a step and can't turn the corner as well as he used to but there is plenty of room in Weiss' playbook for the Cincinnati Kid.
Conversely, look to the Colts offense to run long, sustained, meaningful drives. Like Dungy and OC Tom Moore did all of last year, they will use the offense to rest his defense against the onslaught that Belichick has game planned. The Colts won't hurt the Patriots long to Marvin (It's against the Law), but under cover with big steady WR Reggie Wayne against the smaller, slower Patriot LB corps.
Without Washington stopping the gap we'll see some let up as Edgerin James picks his way through the line-but he shouldn't see significant gains against the Patriots' front four in this game.
Under bettors should be aware that in Patriots' games in week one the over has cashed 3-1 since 2000. In week one the Colts record against the total is 2-2 since 2000 with all four games played on the road.
Rain is forecast for Thursday night and that means playing the under is always a good decision. Next week we'll tackle part two of the system play.
Impaler Perspective: Under 45 for 440 units.
Pending Perspective: Under 10.5 games Season Total (+1.10)
The information in this article is the writers opinion only. Any references to odds or wagering are are given for comparison or illustrative purposes only, and should not be taken as advice or an endorsement to gamble by this website, TheInsiders network or its affiliates. The Insiders, it's affiliates and the webmaster make no claim of responsibility for the accuracy of the information contained in this article, and have provided the content for recreational purposes only.