Denver - Pittsburgh: Who will win?

There are certain things in the NFL that are unlikely if not impossible to repeat. One of those is forcing a team to make 5 critical mistakes in a playoff game. One, two maybe even three are all a coach can hope for, but five is unheard of. The five mistakes the New England Patriots made last week put Denver in the driver's seat for a run at the Super Bowl. They won't be so fortunate this week.

Denver - Pittsburgh: Who will win?
By Jon Scott

The thing that strikes me about the two AFC teams playing for the right to go to Super Bowl XL is that the Broncos just don't look like a team that has what it takes to knock off the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. Sure they have a remolded Jake Plummer who is playing some of the best football of his career. Sure they have a defensive line that was upgraded by bringing in the starting line of the Cleveland Browns from last season. And sure they have a run-blocking scheme that has paved the way for Mike Anderson to gain over 1,000 yards with Tatum Bell to gain 900. But… there's something that doesn't sit well.

That something is the play of the Broncos in a postseason game they beat the New England Patriots 27-13. Here is a quick list of the things the Broncos did right:

1) Pressured Tom Brady
2) Forced turnovers
3) Capitalized on the Patriots' mistakes

Here's what they didn't do well:

1) Pass the ball without errors
2) Run the ball well
3) Stop the Patriots' passing attack

What about Champ Bailey's interception return you ask? Well that was a direct result of the pressure on Tom Brady from the Broncos defensive front and blitz. As much as you can credit Bailey with the jumping the route for the pick, if Brady wasn't pressured, he would have had time to see his other receivers. Credit the Broncos for a well deserved scheme, and Bailey for taking advantage of it.

So why do I think the Steelers will beat the Broncos? Because Pittsburgh has two things going for them that New England didn't and the third most critical factor won't be repeated.

  1. Pittsburgh has a better ground game than New England.
    While Denver was able to shut down New England's rushing attack (20 carries 80-yards), Denver had the opportunity to get off to a big lead (from capitalizing on turnovers) and take New England out of their game.

    Pittsburgh, if they don't make those mistakes, has the ability to just grind down that former Cleveland defense the same way they did it when those players were Browns. The Pittsburgh ground game has always been able to run, and there's nothing there to make one think that won't happen again this week.

    If Pittsburgh runs on first and second down, they're bound to have easy conversion on third, unlike what the Patriots faced last week. Even Pittsburgh's passing game is so-so, they can always find positive yardage by running.

  2. Pittsburgh's rush defense is on par with New England's and their blitzing schemes are just as good.
    Denver's ground game was ineffective against the Patriots' rush defense last week. They were able to pick up short gains when they needed to (two short yardage scores), but they couldn't get anything going to sustain drives (25 carries for 88 yards).

    Pittsburgh had time to watch what New England did to slow down Anderson and Bell, and will do the same thing against the Broncos. The difference is, Pittsburgh has a more polished secondary that will make Plummer pay if the Broncos try to put the game in Jake's hands. If Denver can't run, they're going to be in trouble third and long. The Broncos were 4 of 14, against New England, slightly above average. The concern will be whether the Broncos can get into third and short situations, or if they'll have to pass to convert.

  3. Turnovers.
    The Patriots turned the ball over 5 times (3 fumbles, 2 interceptions). Yet in spite of those turnovers, they still had shots in the game until the final two mistakes. Granted some think the pass interference call on Asante Samuel was a blown call (this writer included), the Broncos did what they had to in order to get points from those opportunities.

    Muffed punt, Fumble on a return, and a fumble by a back all set the Broncos up on a short field. Add in the interception return and the Broncos managed 24 of their 27 points off of turnovers.

    I just don't see that 14, 21 or 24 gift happening for Denver a second game in a row. Sure Denver is tough, and sure they'll score points. Taking away credit for their playmakers is not what this is about. This is purely a match-up of strength vs strength.

Throw all the stats you want at the debate, but they won't sway the opinion in Denver's favor. 9-0 is a nice run at home this season. It's just not looking like it will make it to 10-0. Pittsburgh will only fall if the Broncos are able to win one battle - the same one that doomed New England - turnovers.

Jon Scott has been covering the NFL for over a decade and is a member of PFWA. He is also the the managing editor of PatriotsInsider.com. You can also find archives of his columns on the Insiders by searching for "Jon Scott" or


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Denver - Pittsburgh: Who will win?
By Jon Scott

The thing that strikes me about the two AFC teams playing for the right to go to Super Bowl XL is that the Broncos just don't look like a team that has what it takes to knock off the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. Sure they have a remolded Jake Plummer who is playing some of the best football of his career. Sure they have a defensive line that was upgraded by bringing in the starting line of the Cleveland Browns from last season. And sure they have a run-blocking scheme that has paved the way for Mike Anderson to gain over 1,000 yards with Tatum Bell to gain 900. But… there's something that doesn't sit well.

That something is the play of the Broncos in a postseason game they beat the New England Patriots 27-13. Here is a quick list of the things the Broncos did right:

1) Pressured Tom Brady
2) Forced turnovers
3) Capitalized on the Patriots' mistakes

Here's what they didn't do well:

1) Pass the ball without errors
2) Run the ball well
3) Stop the Patriots' passing attack

What about Champ Bailey's interception return you ask? Well that was a direct result of the pressure on Tom Brady from the Broncos defensive front and blitz. As much as you can credit Bailey with the jumping the route for the pick, if Brady wasn't pressured, he would have had time to see his other receivers. Credit the Broncos for a well deserved scheme, and Bailey for taking advantage of it.

So why do I think the Steelers will beat the Broncos? Because Pittsburgh has two things going for them that New England didn't and the third most critical factor won't be repeated.

  1. Pittsburgh has a better ground game than New England.
    While Denver was able to shut down New England's rushing attack (20 carries 80-yards), Denver had the opportunity to get off to a big lead (from capitalizing on turnovers) and take New England out of their game.

    Pittsburgh, if they don't make those mistakes, has the ability to just grind down that former Cleveland defense the same way they did it when those players were Browns. The Pittsburgh ground game has always been able to run, and there's nothing there to make one think that won't happen again this week.

    If Pittsburgh runs on first and second down, they're bound to have easy conversion on third, unlike what the Patriots faced last week. Even Pittsburgh's passing game is so-so, they can always find positive yardage by running.

  2. Pittsburgh's rush defense is on par with New England's and their blitzing schemes are just as good.
    Denver's ground game was ineffective against the Patriots' rush defense last week. They were able to pick up short gains when they needed to (two short yardage scores), but they couldn't get anything going to sustain drives (25 carries for 88 yards).

    Pittsburgh had time to watch what New England did to slow down Anderson and Bell, and will do the same thing against the Broncos. The difference is, Pittsburgh has a more polished secondary that will make Plummer pay if the Broncos try to put the game in Jake's hands. If Denver can't run, they're going to be in trouble third and long. The Broncos were 4 of 14, against New England, slightly above average. The concern will be whether the Broncos can get into third and short situations, or if they'll have to pass to convert.

  3. Turnovers.
    The Patriots turned the ball over 5 times (3 fumbles, 2 interceptions). Yet in spite of those turnovers, they still had shots in the game until the final two mistakes. Granted some think the pass interference call on Asante Samuel was a blown call (this writer included), the Broncos did what they had to in order to get points from those opportunities.

    Muffed punt, Fumble on a return, and a fumble by a back all set the Broncos up on a short field. Add in the interception return and the Broncos managed 24 of their 27 points off of turnovers.

    I just don't see that 14, 21 or 24 gift happening for Denver a second game in a row. Sure Denver is tough, and sure they'll score points. Taking away credit for their playmakers is not what this is about. This is purely a match-up of strength vs strength.

Throw all the stats you want at the debate, but they won't sway the opinion in Denver's favor. 9-0 is a nice run at home this season. It's just not looking like it will make it to 10-0. Pittsburgh will only fall if the Broncos are able to win one battle - the same one that doomed New England - turnovers.

Jon Scott has been covering the NFL for over a decade and is a member of PFWA. He is also the the managing editor of PatriotsInsider.com. You can also find archives of his columns on the Insiders by searching for "Jon Scott" or

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