POORE'S PICKS: Week Eleven

Week eleven in the NFL Jim Poore picks all the games against the spread including his analysis for each matchup. Follow Jim's picks every week in this space. Enjoy the games.

Awful. Terrible. Disgusting. Sickening. Disturbing. No, I am not talking about the New England Patriots week 10 performance. I am talking about my performance in making the picks against the spread for week number 10. Quite honestly, I have never had such a poor weekly record in my tenure at making predictions, which spans several years. Ever. I went a dreadful 3-13 against the spread last week, and my record without the spread was only marginally better at 7-9. There are several reasons for this actually.

The NFL is very difficult to predict each and every week, let alone having a number to go against. This year has been absolutely crazy, with underdogs pulling off outright wins and the favorites under performing each and every week. Another reason is the half point, which is simply there to provide an absolute winner for he bettor as opposed to having a tie. And one other reason, and this one is more personal, is the time in which I write this very column. I write this column every Wednesday ( Tuesday this week) for Friday posting, which means I am making my predictions at least a day before anybody else is. Therefore, the points are going to change one way or the other by game time ( usually anyway ) and I also do not see any injury reports until after I make my picks. Certainly this is no excuse for a poor performance last week. But it does make a difference over the course of the season. Hopefully, I will get right back on track this week with a full schedule of games. As always, home team in CAPS.

KANSAS CITY 9 1/2 Oakland
Both teams might have their starting quarterbacks ready to play, but in Oakland's case it doesn't really matter. The Chiefs took a step back last week, and really need this game to stay afloat in the AFC West. The Raiders have been drowning since week number two. They will be treading water again this week. Take the Chiefs here.
Chiefs 28-13

Indianapolis 1 DALLAS
The Colts were lucky to survive again last week, but they managed to stay undefeated. The Cowboys have been playing pretty decent lately, with Tony Romo leading the way. The Colts, oddly, have played much better on the road this year. I don't see them taking a step back here. The Cowboys defense can be a little sketchy, and the Colts offense should be able to exploit that. I like the Colts away from home.
Colts 26-20

NEW ORLEANS 3 1/2 Cincinnati
Both teams lost last week, but the Bengals' was more frustrating. I don't know what has happened to this team. The Saints are still pretty decent, they just ran into a desperate Steelers team last week. I think the Bengals are desperate too, but I was saying that three weeks ago. I would like to take them here but I can't. Take the Saints.
Saints 24-20

Pittsburgh 3 1/2 CLEVELAND
The Steelers finally woke up last week, but it is going to be too little too late. The Browns shocked the Falcons last week, and have turned into a decent team. They just have trouble scoring points. I think their defense can stop the Steelers this week, but hopefully they can score enough to keep it close. Pittsburgh is better, but not by three and a half points. Take Cleveland.
Steelers 17-14

PHILADELPHIA 13 Tennessee
It looks like the bye week did the Eagles some good. They still might be the best team in the NFC East, but there is a long way to go. The Titans nearly beat Baltimore last week, and they are no longer complete doormats. I think the Eagles will cover though. The points are high and have been tough this year in any game, but I'll take my chances.
Eagles 31-17

BALTIMORE 4 Atlanta
The Ravens are quietly 7-2, and nobody seems to be paying any attention. The Falcons have been lousy since Micheal Vick had two good games in a row. Playing in Baltimore isn't going to help them any. The Falcons have pretty much played themselves out of any playoff scenario right now, while the Ravens are playing for a first round bye. There is plenty of time to go, but these two teams are headed in opposite directions.
Ravens 21-13

CAROLINA 6 1/2 St. Louis
The Panthers might be ready to take off after sputtering for a couple of weeks. The Rams are looking at second place in the NFC West. They are only mediocre anyway, but the Panthers are not. I am not sure the Rams have any answer for Steve Smith. Stephen Jackson has looked good, but he can't do everything. Take the Panthers at home.
Panthers 27-17

HOUSTON 1 1/2 Buffalo
Don't look now, but the Texans are favored in a game for the first time in a long time. They deserve to be. Gary Kubiak has them playing tough. The Bills, meanwhile, play great one week and poorly the next. They played great last week, though losing, so they are going to play poorly this week. The Texans are actually going to win two games in a row. That shows you the parity in the NFL.
Texans 20-17

New England 6 GREEN BAY
The points seem a little high here considering the way the Patriots have played lately. The Packers have turned it up a notch and actually aren't too bad right now. The Patriots have a lot of problems, but are still clinging to the division lead. I think they will bounce back here, but it will be tight. The Patriots right now are hard to trust until they get their act together.
Patriots 26-23

Chicago 7 NEW YORK JETS
This is the Bears second game in a row at the Meadowlands, and it isn't going to be easy. The Jets believe in Eric Mangini right now, and are playing very competitively. The Bears are clearly better, but they might be looking ahead to next week's game at New England. I think the Bears will pull out a close win, but it will be tough.
Bears 21-17

MIAMI 3 1/2 Minnesota
The Dolphins might finally be playing the way they were expected to, but it is way too much way too late. They can be spoilers though, just like the Vikings. The Vikings have been bad since getting blown out a couple of weeks ago. They can't seem to do anything right, similar to Miami at the start of the season. I like the Dolphins to win their third in a row here.
Dolphins 16-10

ARIZONA 2 Detroit
One would think the Cardinals have to win at some point. They can't be as bad as they have been playing. They have too much talent, especially on offense. The Lions have little talent on either side of the ball, but have managed to pull out a couple of wins. I am going to struggle to take the Cardinals here, but if there is a win on their horizon, this has got to be it.
Cardinals 27-24

Seattle 6 1/2 SAN FRANCISCO
The Seahawks should finally have Shaun Alexander and Matt Hasslebeck back, and that is only going to help. The 49ers, surprisingly, haven't been as bad as some thought. They aren't good enough to win here though, or cover. The Seahawks should be ready to make a good run to the post season now that they will be pretty healthy.
Seahawks 34-20

JACKSONVILLE 3 1/2 New York Giants
The Jaguars might be the toughest team in the league to figure out. Great one week, then absolutely terrible the next. They have lost twice to the Texans this year. The Giants need to bounce back after a tough loss, and I think they will. It is difficult to go with either team, but I think the Giants are the better play here, considering the major inconsistencies of the Jags.
Giants 27-23

GAME OF THE WEEK

DENVER 3 San Diego
This could be for the division title, even though it is only week 11. The Chargers came roaring back last week, while the Broncos hung on to beat the hapless Raiders. Both teams are very good, and likely playoff bound. I think the Broncos are a little bit better though, and the home field makes all the difference here. Look for the Broncos to take control of the division with a win here.
Broncos 30-24


STINKER OF THE WEEK

TAMPA BAY 1 1/2 Washington
This game is certainly a stinker, and the Redskins are finally going to make a quarterback change. Both teams need more then that though, as both have really struggled this year, and now the Redskins lose Clinton Portis again. I like Washington, but truthfully I don't know why.
Redskins 24-23

 



Record for Week 10: 3-13 ( 7-9 without spread )
Record through Week 10: 63-78-3 ( 91-53 without spread )
Game of the Week Record: 6-4
Stinker of the Week Record: 5-5



Remember to submit your picks for the weekly Pick'em, here: Patriots Insider Pick'em

Jim Poore has been a long time contributor to Patriots insider with his weekly picks column. Let him know what you think. Email him here: Rules of the pick'em and the login info can be found HERE in the PI Forums.

Talk about it in the Forums
URL: http://mb.scout.com/bpatriotsinsider


Patriots Insider Top Stories

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","mobileBody":"

Awful. Terrible. Disgusting. Sickening. Disturbing. No, I am not talking about the New England Patriots week 10 performance. I am talking about my performance in making the picks against the spread for week number 10. Quite honestly, I have never had such a poor weekly record in my tenure at making predictions, which spans several years. Ever. I went a dreadful 3-13 against the spread last week, and my record without the spread was only marginally better at 7-9. There are several reasons for this actually.

The NFL is very difficult to predict each and every week, let alone having a number to go against. This year has been absolutely crazy, with underdogs pulling off outright wins and the favorites under performing each and every week. Another reason is the half point, which is simply there to provide an absolute winner for he bettor as opposed to having a tie. And one other reason, and this one is more personal, is the time in which I write this very column. I write this column every Wednesday ( Tuesday this week) for Friday posting, which means I am making my predictions at least a day before anybody else is. Therefore, the points are going to change one way or the other by game time ( usually anyway ) and I also do not see any injury reports until after I make my picks. Certainly this is no excuse for a poor performance last week. But it does make a difference over the course of the season. Hopefully, I will get right back on track this week with a full schedule of games. As always, home team in CAPS.

KANSAS CITY 9 1/2 Oakland
Both teams might have their starting quarterbacks ready to play, but in Oakland's case it doesn't really matter. The Chiefs took a step back last week, and really need this game to stay afloat in the AFC West. The Raiders have been drowning since week number two. They will be treading water again this week. Take the Chiefs here.
Chiefs 28-13

Indianapolis 1 DALLAS
The Colts were lucky to survive again last week, but they managed to stay undefeated. The Cowboys have been playing pretty decent lately, with Tony Romo leading the way. The Colts, oddly, have played much better on the road this year. I don't see them taking a step back here. The Cowboys defense can be a little sketchy, and the Colts offense should be able to exploit that. I like the Colts away from home.
Colts 26-20

NEW ORLEANS 3 1/2 Cincinnati
Both teams lost last week, but the Bengals' was more frustrating. I don't know what has happened to this team. The Saints are still pretty decent, they just ran into a desperate Steelers team last week. I think the Bengals are desperate too, but I was saying that three weeks ago. I would like to take them here but I can't. Take the Saints.
Saints 24-20

Pittsburgh 3 1/2 CLEVELAND
The Steelers finally woke up last week, but it is going to be too little too late. The Browns shocked the Falcons last week, and have turned into a decent team. They just have trouble scoring points. I think their defense can stop the Steelers this week, but hopefully they can score enough to keep it close. Pittsburgh is better, but not by three and a half points. Take Cleveland.
Steelers 17-14

PHILADELPHIA 13 Tennessee
It looks like the bye week did the Eagles some good. They still might be the best team in the NFC East, but there is a long way to go. The Titans nearly beat Baltimore last week, and they are no longer complete doormats. I think the Eagles will cover though. The points are high and have been tough this year in any game, but I'll take my chances.
Eagles 31-17

BALTIMORE 4 Atlanta
The Ravens are quietly 7-2, and nobody seems to be paying any attention. The Falcons have been lousy since Micheal Vick had two good games in a row. Playing in Baltimore isn't going to help them any. The Falcons have pretty much played themselves out of any playoff scenario right now, while the Ravens are playing for a first round bye. There is plenty of time to go, but these two teams are headed in opposite directions.
Ravens 21-13

CAROLINA 6 1/2 St. Louis
The Panthers might be ready to take off after sputtering for a couple of weeks. The Rams are looking at second place in the NFC West. They are only mediocre anyway, but the Panthers are not. I am not sure the Rams have any answer for Steve Smith. Stephen Jackson has looked good, but he can't do everything. Take the Panthers at home.
Panthers 27-17

HOUSTON 1 1/2 Buffalo
Don't look now, but the Texans are favored in a game for the first time in a long time. They deserve to be. Gary Kubiak has them playing tough. The Bills, meanwhile, play great one week and poorly the next. They played great last week, though losing, so they are going to play poorly this week. The Texans are actually going to win two games in a row. That shows you the parity in the NFL.
Texans 20-17

New England 6 GREEN BAY
The points seem a little high here considering the way the Patriots have played lately. The Packers have turned it up a notch and actually aren't too bad right now. The Patriots have a lot of problems, but are still clinging to the division lead. I think they will bounce back here, but it will be tight. The Patriots right now are hard to trust until they get their act together.
Patriots 26-23

Chicago 7 NEW YORK JETS
This is the Bears second game in a row at the Meadowlands, and it isn't going to be easy. The Jets believe in Eric Mangini right now, and are playing very competitively. The Bears are clearly better, but they might be looking ahead to next week's game at New England. I think the Bears will pull out a close win, but it will be tough.
Bears 21-17

MIAMI 3 1/2 Minnesota
The Dolphins might finally be playing the way they were expected to, but it is way too much way too late. They can be spoilers though, just like the Vikings. The Vikings have been bad since getting blown out a couple of weeks ago. They can't seem to do anything right, similar to Miami at the start of the season. I like the Dolphins to win their third in a row here.
Dolphins 16-10

ARIZONA 2 Detroit
One would think the Cardinals have to win at some point. They can't be as bad as they have been playing. They have too much talent, especially on offense. The Lions have little talent on either side of the ball, but have managed to pull out a couple of wins. I am going to struggle to take the Cardinals here, but if there is a win on their horizon, this has got to be it.
Cardinals 27-24

Seattle 6 1/2 SAN FRANCISCO
The Seahawks should finally have Shaun Alexander and Matt Hasslebeck back, and that is only going to help. The 49ers, surprisingly, haven't been as bad as some thought. They aren't good enough to win here though, or cover. The Seahawks should be ready to make a good run to the post season now that they will be pretty healthy.
Seahawks 34-20

JACKSONVILLE 3 1/2 New York Giants
The Jaguars might be the toughest team in the league to figure out. Great one week, then absolutely terrible the next. They have lost twice to the Texans this year. The Giants need to bounce back after a tough loss, and I think they will. It is difficult to go with either team, but I think the Giants are the better play here, considering the major inconsistencies of the Jags.
Giants 27-23

GAME OF THE WEEK

DENVER 3 San Diego
This could be for the division title, even though it is only week 11. The Chargers came roaring back last week, while the Broncos hung on to beat the hapless Raiders. Both teams are very good, and likely playoff bound. I think the Broncos are a little bit better though, and the home field makes all the difference here. Look for the Broncos to take control of the division with a win here.
Broncos 30-24


STINKER OF THE WEEK

TAMPA BAY 1 1/2 Washington
This game is certainly a stinker, and the Redskins are finally going to make a quarterback change. Both teams need more then that though, as both have really struggled this year, and now the Redskins lose Clinton Portis again. I like Washington, but truthfully I don't know why.
Redskins 24-23

 



Record for Week 10: 3-13 ( 7-9 without spread )
Record through Week 10: 63-78-3 ( 91-53 without spread )
Game of the Week Record: 6-4
Stinker of the Week Record: 5-5



Remember to submit your picks for the weekly Pick'em, here: Patriots Insider Pick'em

Jim Poore has been a long time contributor to Patriots insider with his weekly picks column. Let him know what you think. Email him here: Rules of the pick'em and the login info can be found HERE in the PI Forums.

Talk about it in the Forums
URL: http://mb.scout.com/bpatriotsinsider

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