5 Reasons: Why the Bills Will Beat The Pats

"Don't count your chickens before they hatch," is the old saying, and for good reason. The Buffalo Bills had the lead in the AFC East when they weren't having breakdowns. They could get back on track against a banged up Patriots team. Here are five reasons why that just might happen on Sunday.

Don't miss 5 reasons why the Pats will lose

Five Reasons the Patriots will beat the Buffalo Bills

1. Patriots Banged Up Secondary

Lee Evans is averaging 19.4 yards per game, fifth best with receivers who have more than 10 catches on the season. With the Patriots struggling to find healthy bodies in the secondary, signing Jason Webster off the street and making a run at former Oakland Raider DeAngelo Hall, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has concerns. The Patriots have the 17trh ranked pass defense in the NFL, but they've given up the third most passes over 40 yards (7), and they've also given up 23 plays of 20 or more yards. Between Evans and the talented Roscoe Parrish (known for his amazing kickoff returns), the Bills should be able to poke a few holes in the Patriots defense. Patriots players fighting health concerns: Terrence Wheatley is out with a wrist injury, Lewis Sanders has a hamstring problem, Deltha O'Neal was banged in the head and Ellis Hobbs is fighting a shoulder problem.

2. The Patriots Run Defense Problems

New England has allowed opponents to run for over 4 yards per carry four times this season. Although Marshawn Lynch hasn't been able to get on track this season (averaging just 3.5 yards per carry), he has managed over 4 yards per carry twice. If Lynch can get on track, he certainly has the potential, then it will take pressure off the Bills passing game. Removing pressure is more important than actually the yards gained. Lynch is a big back who can make the crucial short yardage plays to keep drives alive when needed.

3. Bills Can Take Advantage of Patriots Third Down Defense

The New England defense is allowing opponents to convert on 41.1% of their third down attempts this season. Last week New England allowed the Colts to convert 6 of 10 times (60%) sustaining drives at critical times. New England only allowed 301 yards in the game, but couldn't get off the field when they had the Colts stopped. Buffalo is converting on average 40% of their third downs. With Edwards given enough attempts to find Parrish or Evans downfield, he will be able to hit those plays. New England has to find a way to get off the field, and so far they're struggling in that category.

4. Bills Special Teams Can Make Big Plays

The Bills need a strong outing by their return unit, something they've been able to do on a semi-regular basis. Special Teams coach Bobby April has the Bills unit pulling out many stops this year. Punter Brian Moorman can, and has, run successful fake punts. He lea The team has been able to convert onsides kicks, Moorman has the fifth best gross punting average (46.7 yards) giving the Bills another weapon to win the battle of field position on those downs. Whether it's a big return or a strong kick, the Bills can take advantage of the Patriots coverage on special teams.

5. Bills Desperate For A Win

The Bills found ways to win early in the season jumping to a 5-1 record after knocking off the Chargers. Their wins haven't always been blowouts, but they did enough to win the close ones. New England with Cassel at the helm have only played close ones except for a blowout over the Broncos. If the Bills can keep the game close late, they will get a chance to march down the field for a win, or make a late comeback. New England isn't that good where they can just shut down an opponent. With Buffalo losing two of its last three to fall into a three-way tie in the division, the Bills desperately need a win - more than New England.

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