With the boom of analytics taking real solid shape in pro sports, I have always wondered why pro teams don't hire a "wise guy" to analyze why they are the favorite or the underdog in a game," because let's face it, linemakers are the original users of analytics. They have the incredible knack of using data to set a line that is always making bettors sweat. More often than not, oddsmakers are right on the money when it comes to setting a line.
That's where I, Frankie Stacks, come in.
As an experienced gamester, I will be here to help you outwit, outgun, outsmart and crush your man this season. My first entry here focuses on the always popular prop bet of Super Bowl winner.
First up, let's start big and there is nothing bigger than the Super Bowl other then Terrance "Pot Roast" Knighton if you know what I mean.
Here's the thing about betting NFL football or any sport for that matter: Never go with the favorite and never ever go with your gut! Although your gut may have led you to make good or even great decisions in your life, don't trust it when it comes to NFL wagering. So when your get tells you, "I think the Redskins could be a dark horse this year," in all likelihood you are going to be wrong. But hey, if you want to throw a pittance on them at 125-1 to win the Super Bowl. Go for it!
Yep, the Redskins are a loooong shot to win the Super Bowl. They actually have the longest odds at 14-1 to win the NFC East. They are getting no respect but we expected that.
The favorite to win Vince Lombardi's trophy you ask? The Green Bay Packers are, at 6-1 to win Super Bowl 50. I would have thought Seattle would be the favorite with the bad taste left over from last year's runner up. But again, like I said never trust your own opinion. In fact Seattle is, according to the oddsmakers, has the second-best shot at +660.
So based on a $100 bet, you would win $600 if you took the Packers to win it all. Not a bad return. But what would be even juicier is taking say an Indianapolis at +900 or maybe even the pissed off defending champs New England after Deflategate. Tom Brady and crew +1200.
Maybe the smart money would be on, dare I say it Dallas at +1200 or maybe Peyton Manning has one more charge in him with Denver at +1200. Baltimore might be a smart play at +2000. There's Carolina at +4000.
You can't take Tennessee or Jacksonville, those two are the longest shots at 20-1 and they both stink. Even my gut can't be wrong on these two teams. They are just good. Not yet at least.
The moral to this story is don't take Green Bay to win it all. Looking at last year's odds, the Seahawks were the favorite to win it all and we all known what happened losing to New England who by the way was 14-1! That's some sweet action!