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Rich Tandler is the author of Gut Check, The Complete History of Coach Joe Gibbs' Washington Redskins. Get details and order at http://GutCheckBook.com
November 30, 2004
Gibbs Retirement Talk is Bunk
I suppose I would be remiss if I didn't address the "Gibbs might retire" report that Chris Mortensen gave on Sunday, especially since my wife just burst into the room and asked me about it. I told her to read the blog and find out about it.
I didn't see the report, but on one of the myriad Sunday morning shows that Mort does he said that he had heard that some friends of Gibbs had said that they were concerned about his health, his diabetic condition in particular, and that Gibbs might use that as a reason to pack it in as coach after this season. Gibbs was asked about the report in his post-game presser and he said that his health was superb and that he has no notion of leaving.
Gibbs has plenty of experience deflecting reports of his impending retirement. In my book Gut Check I chronicle a number of reports of his impending retirement. He brought the first one on himself when in December of 1989 he mused to reporters about life after football, saying that "There's been a chance that I'll leave for (the past) two years." That created such a uproar that he had to call a press conference a few weeks after the season to announce that he was staying. "They'll have to usher me out," he said.
It only took until the week after the first game of the next season for another report of Gibbs' retirement to surface, this one from Will McDonough of the Boston Globe. To that one, Gibbs responded, "I'll be here forever."
The rumors died down for a while after that and Gibbs inked a three-year extension following his third Super Bowl title in 1991. Just a little more than a near later, the stunning announcement of his departure came.
But I digress. As of right now, November 30, 2004, Gibbs isn't going anywhere. When he took the job he said that one of the reasons he came back was for the challenge. Building a winner in the NFL was one of the hardest things a person could endeavor to do, he said, and that was why he was there. This season has proven him to be absolutely correct in that assertion and there is simply no reason to believe that he would run away from the challenge. It just isn't in him.
Samuels' Upcoming Salary Cap Hit
I mentioned the cap hit that Chris Samuels' contract might create in the coming season and promised an explaination. Here it is, according to PC, the resident salary cap wizard at this blog's home site, WarpathInsiders.com.
Remember that Samuels can void the last year of his contract (2006) at any time.Predictions Analysis—A Policy Change
IMHO he WILL do this at the end of this season to pressure the Redskins into either negotiating a new contract, trading him or releasing him outright............or if we are prepared to take the cap hit that follows his decision he would be a free agent in 2006.
In any of these scenario's Samuels and his agent have the upper hand.
At some point in the next two years Samuels will be line for what he and his agent thinks will be a SIGNIFICANT contract.....along the lines of Ogden and Pace.
Samuels is due to count $9.643m against the 2005 cap AT THIS STAGE.
After Samuels voids the 2006 year of his contract the prorated signing bonus for 2006 (minus the Deion Sanders cap charge credit) accelerates into 2005.
The cap charge for Samuels then increases by $2.218m to $11.861m in 2005.
Now if we trade or release Samuels in 2005 (before his workout bonus is due and after he voids his 2006 year) we would take a 2005 dead cap hit of $4.426m - which means we would save over $7.4m against the 2005 cap.
This makes it almost as plain as the nose on your face that trading Samuels for a 1st round pick means that we not only get compensation for the player, but we are then able to use some of the cap savings to afford to cut Brunell.
Trading Gardner as well, would mean we eliminate all our overpriced vs performance players except maybe for Lavar who I have more faith in living up to his numbers than Samuels, Gardner or certainly Brunell.
I just need to make this clear to people talking about the Samuels situation.
To me this is a leading NFL QB type cap hit - not one for a very solid OL.
I've decided that, from here on out, if I correctly predict that the Redskins will lose a game, I'm not going to do a predictions analysis piece the following week. It's just not fun to do it, there's no point, so I'm not going to do it. If you would like me to explain or expound upon a particular point please feel free to leave a comment or send me an email.
Now, in the other three possible scenarios—I correctly predict a win, I predict a win and they lose or I predict a loss and they win—there will be a full analysis article. In the first case I need to brag, in the second two there is legitimate cause for me to take my medicine.
I predicted that the Steelers would beat the Redskins, so there is nothing further to discuss here.
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