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November 30, 2004
Smoot a Goner?
After months of happy talk about it being a virtual certainty that Fred Smoot would return to the Redskins next year, things suddenly turned gloomy today. From WarpathInsiders.com's ace Redskins reporter John Keim:
Fred Smoot isn't optimistic about returning, even as the Redskins say he should be. ''Just say it's a gut feeling,'' Smoot said. ''A gut feeling.'' When asked if he felt that if there was no deal before season's end, then there'd be no deal at all, Smoot said, ''Yeah, that's how I think.'' Smoot stressed that he wants to return. Coach Joe Gibbs said, ''We really like him. He's a heck of a player and he has a great outlook on things. We'll make every effort to sign him. We were going hard at it and then it reached a point where there was a stalemate. Both sides reached a point where we both said we're better off waiting.''Perhaps this is the disappointing season and his current injury talking, but there certainly is cause for concern here. Rarely is heard a discouraging word from the mouth of Fred Smoot. If he says that doesn't like the way things are going in the contract negotiations, there must be some serious difference between the two sides.
The guess here is that Smoot and his agent have an inflated estimation of the cornerback's market value. He is a good corner, perhaps a very good one, but he's a cut or two below the elites in the league. If he's looking for more than seven figures in guaranteed money the Redskins are right to draw the line.
This may come down to Smoot testing the market in March. If he gets a crazy offer, he'll go. If not, he'll probably stay for the offer the Redskins have on the table right now.
Well, last week it was playoff scenarios. We now go quickly to looking at where the Redskins might draft.
Unlike playoff tiebreakers, which tries to identify factors that indicate that one team with the same record as another was inferior, the draft tiebreakers try to identify the worse of the tied teams. The NFL does that by positioning tied teams in inverse order of their strength of schedule. In other words, the team that played the weaker schedule will get to draft ahead of a team with the same record that had a weaker strength of schedule. Things like head to head and conference or division record have no bearing on deciding draft order.
Thanks again to Kevin Mac on WarpathInsiders.com for doing the nitty-gritty work to come up with the following information:
Team Wins SOS* Next week
- 1 SanFran 2 113 Patriots
- 2 Cleveland 3 140 Houston
- 3 Tennessee 4 124 Detroit
- 4 Miami 4 130 Baltimore
- 5 Arizona 5 108 Tampa
- 6 Tampa 5 113 Arizona
- 7 Chicago 5 113 Packers
- 8 Wash 5 115 Vikings
- 9 Giants 5 124 Dallas
- 10 Oakland 5 138 Jags
- 11 Detroit 6 120 Titans
- 12 Dallas 6 121 Giants
If the Redskins lose on Sunday, it's possible but unlikely that they will draft third, depending on if Miami and Tennessee both win and how the opponents of the other teams that finish in the five-win pool do. A position in the six hole is more likely.
If Redskins win on Sunday they probably will draft somewhere in the 8 to 10 range as it's unlikely that the SOS for Detroit and Dallas will drop enough to get to be more favorable than that of the Redskins and some other teams will five losses will also win, getting the Redskins into the mix with those teams as well.
No official "root for" list for this game, but I just wanted to make you aware of the situation.