Bold Predictions: Defense Wins Championships

Tandler's Redskins Blog Ver. 01.12.06--Bold Predictions: Don't look at the schedules in breaking down Sunday's Redskins-Seahawks game, look at the defenses.

You can reach Rich Tandler by email at WarpathInsiders@comcast.net

There is much talk about the relative strength of the schedules played by the Washington Redskins and the Seattle Seahawks and how that should influence the view of their NFC Divisional playoff game on Saturday at Qwest Field. Here are the facts:

The Redskins played home and home against the other three teams in their own NFC East division, four games each against the NFC West and the AFC West plus Tampa Bay and Chicago. Those opponents went 138-118, a .539 winning percentage (counting the division opponents' records twice). That means that every week, week in and week out, the Redskins were facing a 9-7 team.

Seattle played home and home against its own NFC West division, four each vs. the NFC East and the AFC South, plus Atlanta and Green Bay. Those opponents went 110-146, a .429 winning percentage, translating into about a 7-9 team each week.

There are those who say that this means that the Redskins are a battle-tested bunch whose record was well earned while Seattle is a mere paper bird of prey with a gaudy record built on the backs of the dregs of the NFL. There is some merit to the first point while the view here is that the talk of the Seahawks being weaker than their record doesn't hold much water.

If Seattle had been taken down to the wire a lot this season, if they had needed late field goals or defensive stands to eke out wins over their mediocre competition, their schedule might legitimately taken into account when evaluating them. However, in their 13 wins they outscored the competition by a combined 404-202. If you do the math, you'll find that that is a 2-1 margin. It doesn't matter who you're playing, if you double up your opponent week in and week out you probably would have been pretty successful no matter who you were playing.

Might the Seahawks have won one or two fewer games had they played Washington's schedule? Possibly but it's still likely that they'd have home field advantage. Would they have the league's top offense and the NFL's top rusher if they'd had a tougher road along the way? Probably not, although it wouldn't make Matt Hasselbeck, Shaun Alexander and company any less formidable.

That offense is one of many pluses the Seahawks have going for them. They also have the home field advantage throughout and the bye week in their favor. History has shown that these are not just major advantages, they are insurmountable. No six seed has ever advanced through the top seed to get to a conference championship game.

All is not lost for the Redskins, however. They have a few things going for them as well. Joe Gibbs is a Hall of Fame coach because he wins in January. Mark Brunell, albeit a younger, spryer version, has won playoff games in tough places. Clinton Portis is clearly a cut below Alexander in the pecking order of NFL running backs, but just one cut. The best receiver on the field will be Santana Moss and even the most avid Seattle homer would have to concede that the Redskins have the superior defensive unit.

Offensively, the Redskins will come out just like they did against the Bucs; taking some shots to try to get the early lead (That entire game wasn't played with the offense in a shell; remember Portis' option pass on their first offensive series?). In the course of doing so, expect heavy doses of Clinton "Gut and Power" up the middle. That's not just because those are his favorite plays, it's because the Redskins have an average weight advantage of over 30 pounds a man along their offensive line compared to Seattle's front four. Ladell Betts will spell Portis as Gibbs is going to want 40 carries out of the two of them combined (they got a combined 37 against Seattle in Week 4).

Should the Redskins get decent production out of Moss and Chris Cooley—and they caught a combined 10 passes for 148 yards the last time these two teams played—the Redskins should be able to put up 17 to 21 points.

The Seattle offense is death by a thousand paper cuts and that's not intended to be a slight against them. They lead the league in long drives and they finish them off, scoring 48 touchdowns in 60 Red Zone possessions. They're not going to kill you with the big play—Hasselbeck's long completion this year is 56 yards—but they are brutally efficient. Unless the Redskins jump to an early lead like they did last week, look for Gregg Williams to gamble more often with the blitz, confident that the defensive backs will be able to keep the receivers in front of them.

Will Seattle be able to inflict enough paper cuts to score 20 points? With the Redskins' defense healthier than it was a week ago when the put up a classic defensive performance, no. Defense wins championships and, therefore, it wins in the playoffs. Hasselbeck throws an interception on a tipped pass, Alexander finds the going very tough and the Redskins again survive and advance.

Redskins 21, Seahawks 17


Breaking Burgundy Top Stories

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You can reach Rich Tandler by email at WarpathInsiders@comcast.net

There is much talk about the relative strength of the schedules played by the Washington Redskins and the Seattle Seahawks and how that should influence the view of their NFC Divisional playoff game on Saturday at Qwest Field. Here are the facts:

The Redskins played home and home against the other three teams in their own NFC East division, four games each against the NFC West and the AFC West plus Tampa Bay and Chicago. Those opponents went 138-118, a .539 winning percentage (counting the division opponents' records twice). That means that every week, week in and week out, the Redskins were facing a 9-7 team.

Seattle played home and home against its own NFC West division, four each vs. the NFC East and the AFC South, plus Atlanta and Green Bay. Those opponents went 110-146, a .429 winning percentage, translating into about a 7-9 team each week.

There are those who say that this means that the Redskins are a battle-tested bunch whose record was well earned while Seattle is a mere paper bird of prey with a gaudy record built on the backs of the dregs of the NFL. There is some merit to the first point while the view here is that the talk of the Seahawks being weaker than their record doesn't hold much water.

If Seattle had been taken down to the wire a lot this season, if they had needed late field goals or defensive stands to eke out wins over their mediocre competition, their schedule might legitimately taken into account when evaluating them. However, in their 13 wins they outscored the competition by a combined 404-202. If you do the math, you'll find that that is a 2-1 margin. It doesn't matter who you're playing, if you double up your opponent week in and week out you probably would have been pretty successful no matter who you were playing.

Might the Seahawks have won one or two fewer games had they played Washington's schedule? Possibly but it's still likely that they'd have home field advantage. Would they have the league's top offense and the NFL's top rusher if they'd had a tougher road along the way? Probably not, although it wouldn't make Matt Hasselbeck, Shaun Alexander and company any less formidable.

That offense is one of many pluses the Seahawks have going for them. They also have the home field advantage throughout and the bye week in their favor. History has shown that these are not just major advantages, they are insurmountable. No six seed has ever advanced through the top seed to get to a conference championship game.

All is not lost for the Redskins, however. They have a few things going for them as well. Joe Gibbs is a Hall of Fame coach because he wins in January. Mark Brunell, albeit a younger, spryer version, has won playoff games in tough places. Clinton Portis is clearly a cut below Alexander in the pecking order of NFL running backs, but just one cut. The best receiver on the field will be Santana Moss and even the most avid Seattle homer would have to concede that the Redskins have the superior defensive unit.

Offensively, the Redskins will come out just like they did against the Bucs; taking some shots to try to get the early lead (That entire game wasn't played with the offense in a shell; remember Portis' option pass on their first offensive series?). In the course of doing so, expect heavy doses of Clinton \"Gut and Power\" up the middle. That's not just because those are his favorite plays, it's because the Redskins have an average weight advantage of over 30 pounds a man along their offensive line compared to Seattle's front four. Ladell Betts will spell Portis as Gibbs is going to want 40 carries out of the two of them combined (they got a combined 37 against Seattle in Week 4).

Should the Redskins get decent production out of Moss and Chris Cooley—and they caught a combined 10 passes for 148 yards the last time these two teams played—the Redskins should be able to put up 17 to 21 points.

The Seattle offense is death by a thousand paper cuts and that's not intended to be a slight against them. They lead the league in long drives and they finish them off, scoring 48 touchdowns in 60 Red Zone possessions. They're not going to kill you with the big play—Hasselbeck's long completion this year is 56 yards—but they are brutally efficient. Unless the Redskins jump to an early lead like they did last week, look for Gregg Williams to gamble more often with the blitz, confident that the defensive backs will be able to keep the receivers in front of them.

Will Seattle be able to inflict enough paper cuts to score 20 points? With the Redskins' defense healthier than it was a week ago when the put up a classic defensive performance, no. Defense wins championships and, therefore, it wins in the playoffs. Hasselbeck throws an interception on a tipped pass, Alexander finds the going very tough and the Redskins again survive and advance.

Redskins 21, Seahawks 17

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