Getting to 12

Tandler's Redskins Blog Ver. 09.07.06--To have the kind of season they want to have, the Redskins probably will have to win 12 regular season games. Here are a few road maps that can get them there.

You can reach Rich Tandler by email at WarpathInsiders@comcast.net

Nine wins might get you into a pool of teams that are sweating out commons opponents' records going into the last week of the season, hoping to somehow the right combination of results is half a dozen different games falls exactly right to get them into the playoffs.

Ten wins, of course, is better but it leaves you still sweating out your playoff fate right through the last play of the last quarter of the last game. Ten also usually has you packing your bags for the opening round of the playoffs with little chance of returning home even if you do manage to survive and advance.

Eleven is a decent number. All but one NFC team that has won 11 games in a season since 1990 has hosted a first-round playoff game, although winning that one usually wins you the right to travel to an opponent that has had a week off to rest up.

Twelve is where you want to be. That will always get you a home game and will often get you a bye. Only six times since 1990 has an NFC team with 12 wins been relegated to Wild Card status. With the NFC still being somewhat down compared to the AFC this year, it would be quite surprising if this was one of those years that a 12-win team didn't earn a week off.

If the Redskins want to be in position to make a serious run at Super Bowl XLI in February, it is likely that they will need to win those 12 games. That should ensure that at least part of the road to the Super Bowl will go through FedEx Field and would likely mean a week off to heal the bumps and bruises. How can they get there?

Win their home games

 Winning seven or eight of their home games would go a long way towards getting to that 12-win mark. With the caveat that injuries and the nature of the NFL can dramatically change how "easy" or "hard" a game may seem to be right now, it looks like the Redskins should be strong favorites in just two of their home games; the one this Monday against the Vikings and against the Titans in October. If they can hold home field in those two games, that leaves a group of six games against Jacksonville, Dallas, Carolina, Atlanta, Philadelphia, and the New York Giants that they must either sweep or lose only one of. That would be a very tall order. A 5-3 home record would be something to be proud of and 6-2 would be outstanding.

If they manage to go 6-2 at home, could they match that record on the road to get to 12 wins? Right now, the Redskins should be pretty solid road favorites against Houston, New Orleans, and St. Louis and even money in Philadelphia. If they could sweep those four they could split the games in Dallas, New York, Indianapolis, and Tampa and post a 6-2 road record. Again, long odds on being able to pull this off by avoiding the road upset, but it seems to be a better bet than pulling off the 6-2 home mark.

Win their division games

A big part of the Redskins' resurgence last year was due to their 5-1 record against teams in the NFC East after years of struggling with division records that were well under .500. When looking at last year's 10-6 mark and trying to figure out a way to add two wins to it, this is a major hurdle. Given the way the teams in the division have improved, it's extremely unlikely that the Redskins can duplicate their sweeps of Philadelphia and Dallas this year.

They might have to improve by 3-4 games in their record outside of the division in order to get to 12 wins.

Win some AFC games

This is an area where the Skins can make up some ground from their 2005 performance. They went 0-4 against the NFC West last year. In fact, Joe Gibbs has yet to beat an AFC team since he has returned to coaching. That should change this year with the Redskins playing the AFC South. Only one of those four games looks like a probable loss, the one against the Colts in Indianapolis. The other tough team in the division, Jacksonville, is a home game and it shouldn't matter where they play the Texans and Titans, those should be games that the Redskins take easily. That could make up for a tougher road to hoe in the division.

Win each quarter of the season

I've heard some players talk about looking at the season in quarters as a way to break up the daunting marathon of the 16-game schedule. To get to 12 wins, the Redskins will have to win three out of every four games. This seems difficult but it certainly could be done. Pencil in a first-quarter loss to Dallas. In the second four games, Indy will be a very tough one. In the third four-game stretch a loss in either Philly or Tampa is a good bet. With the two tougher, division games being at home in that last four-game stretch, and given Joe Gibbs' incredible December record, that could be an opportunity to make up for any quarters of the season where they go 2-2.

They can stumble to that extent. Any 1-3 stretches, however, will make it very, very difficult to win 12 games.

Redskins 2006 schedule

Mon. Sep 11 Vikings 7:00 p.m. ET
Sun. Sep 17 @ Cowboys 8:15 p.m. ET
Sun. Sep 24 @ Texans 1:00 p.m. ET
Sun. Oct 1 Jaguars 4:15 p.m. ET
Sun. Oct 8 @ Giants 1:00 p.m. ET
Sun. Oct 15 Titans 1:00 p.m. ET
Sun. Oct 22 @ Colts 4:15 p.m. ET
Sun. Nov 5 Cowboys 1:00 p.m. ET
Sun. Nov 12 @ Eagles 1:00 p.m. ET
Sun. Nov 19 @ Buccaneers 1:00 p.m. ET
Sun. Nov 26 Panthers 1:00 p.m. ET
Sun. Dec 3 Falcons 1:00 p.m. ET
Sun. Dec 10 Eagles 1:00 p.m. ET
Sun. Dec 17 @ Saints 1:00 p.m. ET
Sun. Dec 24 @ Rams 1:00 p.m. ET
Sat. Dec 30 Giants 8:00 p.m. ET

Rich Tandler is the author of The Redskins From A to Z, Volume 1: The Games. This unique book has an account of every game the Redskins played from when the moved to Washington for the 1937 season through 2001. For details and ordering information go to http://www.RedskinsGames.com

Previous entries

The Redskins Quarterback Matrix. . .posted 09.06.06

They say that if you have two #1 quarterbacks that you really don't have a number one quarterback.

How about if you have two #2's?

Joe Gibbs provided an answer to one of the summer's few non-injury related questions yesterday when he announced his relief plan should Mark Brunell go down with an injury at some point during the season. If Brunell gets hurt during a game, Todd Collins will come in to finish up the game. If Brunell will miss the next game and there is a full week of practice to prepare the backup, Jason Campbell will be the man.

The headline at the team's official site reads, "Backup QB situation settled". Not so fast. The bow on this one isn't tied as neatly as it might appear at first glance.

As veteran Gibbs watchers know, the term "veteran" meaning going back a year ago, Gibbs' pronouncements on his quarterbacks are subject to change. Gibbs himself said that the plan was subject to change if, say, Collins played very well in relief. In other words, he has sufficient wiggle room to change his mind.

This Solomon-like compromise to divide the #2 QB baby in half would appear to be a deal struck between Gibbs and offensive guru Al Saunders, who certainly has a stake in who is running the offense. By all indications it appears that Gibbs is more enamored with Campbell than Saunders is. Saunders, of course, is Collins' champion, having brought him over from Kansas City. Gibbs traded away some high draft picks to get the first-round choice that the team used to draft Campbell, so he has invested a great deal in the second-year player out of Auburn. Since both men fervently hope that their plan never has to be used as they would both like to see Brunell have a solid, injury-free season, the decision on who would take over for Brunell was essentially put off until such a decision had to be made.

So, what we know is this—Todd Collins will be the second, active quarterback on game days and Jason Campbell will be the inactive #3 man. If Brunell goes out during a game, Collins will come in. Other than that, we don't know anything. It's anyone's guess unless Collins throws three interceptions and the Redskins lose an 11-point lead. In that case it's a pretty safe bet—not certain, but pretty safe—that Campbell would start the next game. If Collins comes in in the middle of the third quarter and goes 7 for 15 for 101 yards but he hands the ball off to Clinton Portis well and the Redskins rally from a seven-point deficit and win, does he start the next week if Brunell still can't play? Is the bottom line the win or does a so-so passing performance warrant another chance?

Not even Gibbs or Saunders knows the answers to these questions right now. Such answers depend on dozens, perhaps hundreds of variables and the most basic of these are the coaches' gut feelings. The twist in this particular situation is that there are two guts to consider here, Saunders' and Gibbs'. Again, the best-case scenario is that Brunell takes every snap and the question never has to be put on the table. If not, however, it will be interesting to see how the gut check between Saunders and Gibbs will turn out.

Portis: No News is Good News (posted 09.04.06)

Some sloppy reporting over the weekend has led many to conclude that the chances are slim that Portis will take the field on Monday. A report on KFFL.com, which is a popular website that compiles sports reports from around the Internet and posts them in capsule form, said that Portis was "doubtful" for the opener. Here is the report:

Redskins | Portis doubtful for opener
Sat, 2 Sep 2006 09:16:01 -0700

The Associated Press reports Washington Redskins RB Clinton Portis' (shoulder) availability for the season opener is in serious doubt, according to head coach Joe Gibbs.

This led to a rash of message board posts and talk-show calls from panicked Redskins fans saying that, see, the injury really is more serious than the Redskins are letting on. The problem is that Joe Gibbs never said any such thing. The last time he spoke to the media, which was on Friday, here is what he had to say about the injury situation:

With the exception of Clinton and Shawn, I think we know what we've got with everyone else (in terms of injuries). I think Clinton has done extremely well. We'll have a discussion with him and see what he thinks.

How they get "serious doubt" out of this statement, I have no idea. The folks at KFFL should know that the word "doubtful" has a very precise meaning in terms of NFL injuries. On the official injury report it means that there is a 75% chance that the player won't play. You simply can't draw that conclusion from what Gibbs said. It was quite sloppy and irresponsible of KFFL to have stated the situation in that way.

The view here is that it would be surprising, although not shocking, for Portis to sit out on Monday. This feeling is based on the simple fact that if the shoulder was considerably worse than the Redskins have been indicating that word of that would have leaked out by now. This story is national news. It is being pounded on all angles. The health of Portis' shoulder is a critical story in the fantasy football world. Ever since the injury happened on August 13 thousands of phone calls have been made in an effort to get a solid nugget of information indicating that the injury would either cost Portis some games or would seriously hamper his performance in 2006. Not one remotely credible report has come out indicating that either one of those is likely to happen.

In this case, the old saying rings very true—no news is good news.

This doesn't mean that there is no cause for concern. Although Portis is right handed and he prefers to carry the ball in that hand and the injury is to the left shoulder, consider the picture below.

He's using his left arm to push off a defender and gain a few additional yards. If the arm you use for your stiff arm is stiff all season long, that could well to hamper your effectiveness, especially if defenders are coaches to grab that arm and yank on it. Yeah, that wouldn't really seem to be sporting, but don't think that Gregg Williams would hesitate to do the same thing if he was an opposing defensive coordinator and he knew that a well-timed yank might put the other team's best offensive player on the bench.

Regardless, it's been amusing to see many Redskins-bashing members of the media do such an abrupt about-face when it comes to the value of Clinton Portis. When the Redskins traded for Portis in 2004 these folks were incredulous that they would give up Champ Bailey and a #2 draft pick for a system back. When they signed Portis to a big contract extension a few months later, it was ridiculous to pay so much for a mere running back, a commodity that could be had for much, much less cap space.

Now that Portis may, just may, be affected by this shoulder injury the same journalists have dropped the Redskins from being a possible Super Bowl contender to a team that will be fortunate to finish around .500. His value is growing immeasurably in his absence. A little consistency would be nice, but why should these guys start now?


Breaking Burgundy Top Stories

\r\n\r\n","mobileBody":"

You can reach Rich Tandler by email at WarpathInsiders@comcast.net

Nine wins might get you into a pool of teams that are sweating out commons opponents' records going into the last week of the season, hoping to somehow the right combination of results is half a dozen different games falls exactly right to get them into the playoffs.

Ten wins, of course, is better but it leaves you still sweating out your playoff fate right through the last play of the last quarter of the last game. Ten also usually has you packing your bags for the opening round of the playoffs with little chance of returning home even if you do manage to survive and advance.

Eleven is a decent number. All but one NFC team that has won 11 games in a season since 1990 has hosted a first-round playoff game, although winning that one usually wins you the right to travel to an opponent that has had a week off to rest up.

Twelve is where you want to be. That will always get you a home game and will often get you a bye. Only six times since 1990 has an NFC team with 12 wins been relegated to Wild Card status. With the NFC still being somewhat down compared to the AFC this year, it would be quite surprising if this was one of those years that a 12-win team didn't earn a week off.

If the Redskins want to be in position to make a serious run at Super Bowl XLI in February, it is likely that they will need to win those 12 games. That should ensure that at least part of the road to the Super Bowl will go through FedEx Field and would likely mean a week off to heal the bumps and bruises. How can they get there?

Win their home games

 Winning seven or eight of their home games would go a long way towards getting to that 12-win mark. With the caveat that injuries and the nature of the NFL can dramatically change how \"easy\" or \"hard\" a game may seem to be right now, it looks like the Redskins should be strong favorites in just two of their home games; the one this Monday against the Vikings and against the Titans in October. If they can hold home field in those two games, that leaves a group of six games against Jacksonville, Dallas, Carolina, Atlanta, Philadelphia, and the New York Giants that they must either sweep or lose only one of. That would be a very tall order. A 5-3 home record would be something to be proud of and 6-2 would be outstanding.

If they manage to go 6-2 at home, could they match that record on the road to get to 12 wins? Right now, the Redskins should be pretty solid road favorites against Houston, New Orleans, and St.\r\nLouis and even money in Philadelphia. If they could sweep those four they could split the games in Dallas,\r\nNew York, Indianapolis, and Tampa and post a 6-2 road record. Again, long odds on being able to pull this off by avoiding the road upset, but it seems to be a better bet than pulling off the 6-2 home mark.

Win their division games

A big part of the Redskins' resurgence last year was due to their 5-1 record against teams in the NFC East after years of struggling with division records that were well under .500. When looking at last year's 10-6 mark and trying to figure out a way to add two wins to it, this is a major hurdle. Given the way the teams in the division have improved, it's extremely unlikely that the Redskins can duplicate their sweeps of Philadelphia and Dallas this year.

They might have to improve by 3-4 games in their record outside of the division in order to get to 12 wins.

Win some AFC games

This is an area where the Skins can make up some ground from their 2005 performance. They went 0-4 against the NFC West last year. In fact, Joe Gibbs has yet to beat an AFC team since he has returned to coaching. That should change this year with the Redskins playing the AFC South. Only one of those four games looks like a probable loss, the one against the Colts in Indianapolis. The other tough team in the division, Jacksonville, is a home game and it shouldn't matter where they play the Texans and Titans, those should be games that the Redskins take easily. That could make up for a tougher road to hoe in the division.

Win each quarter of the season

I've heard some players talk about looking at the season in quarters as a way to break up the daunting marathon of the 16-game schedule. To get to 12 wins, the Redskins will have to win three out of every four games. This seems difficult but it certainly could be done. Pencil in a first-quarter loss to Dallas. In the second four games, Indy will be a very tough one. In the third four-game stretch a loss in either Philly or Tampa is a good bet. With the two tougher, division games being at home in that last four-game stretch, and given Joe Gibbs' incredible December record, that could be an opportunity to make up for any quarters of the season where they go 2-2.

They can stumble to that extent. Any 1-3 stretches, however, will make it very, very difficult to win 12 games.

Redskins 2006 schedule

Mon. Sep 11 Vikings 7:00 p.m. ET
Sun. Sep 17 @ Cowboys 8:15 p.m. ET
Sun. Sep 24 @ Texans 1:00 p.m. ET
Sun. Oct 1 Jaguars 4:15 p.m. ET
Sun. Oct 8 @ Giants 1:00 p.m. ET
Sun. Oct 15 Titans 1:00 p.m. ET
Sun. Oct 22 @ Colts 4:15 p.m. ET
Sun. Nov 5 Cowboys 1:00 p.m. ET
Sun. Nov 12 @ Eagles 1:00 p.m. ET
Sun. Nov 19 @ Buccaneers 1:00 p.m. ET
Sun. Nov 26 Panthers 1:00 p.m. ET
Sun. Dec 3 Falcons 1:00 p.m. ET
Sun. Dec 10 Eagles 1:00 p.m. ET
Sun. Dec 17 @ Saints 1:00 p.m. ET
Sun. Dec 24 @ Rams 1:00 p.m. ET
Sat. Dec 30 Giants 8:00 p.m. ET

Rich Tandler is the author of The Redskins From A to Z, Volume 1: The Games. This unique book has an account of every game the Redskins played from when the moved to Washington for the 1937 season through 2001. For details and ordering information go to http://www.RedskinsGames.com

Previous entries

The Redskins Quarterback Matrix. . .posted 09.06.06

They say that if you have two #1 quarterbacks that you really don't have a number one quarterback.

How about if you have two #2's?

Joe Gibbs provided an answer to one of the summer's few non-injury related questions yesterday when he announced his relief plan should Mark Brunell go down with an injury at some point during the season. If Brunell gets hurt during a game, Todd Collins will come in to finish up the game. If Brunell will miss the next game and there is a full week of practice to prepare the backup, Jason Campbell will be the man.

The headline at the team's official site reads, \"Backup QB situation settled\". Not so fast. The bow on this one isn't tied as neatly as it might appear at first glance.

As veteran Gibbs watchers know, the term \"veteran\" meaning going back a year ago, Gibbs' pronouncements on his quarterbacks are subject to change. Gibbs himself said that the plan was subject to change if, say, Collins played very well in relief. In other words, he has sufficient wiggle room to change his mind.

This Solomon-like compromise to divide the #2 QB baby in half would appear to be a deal struck between Gibbs and offensive guru Al Saunders, who certainly has a stake in who is running the offense. By all indications it appears that Gibbs is more enamored with Campbell than Saunders is. Saunders, of course, is Collins' champion, having brought him over from Kansas City. Gibbs traded away some high draft picks to get the first-round choice that the team used to draft Campbell, so he has invested a great deal in the second-year player out of Auburn. Since both men fervently hope that their plan never has to be used as they would both like to see Brunell have a solid, injury-free season, the decision on who would take over for Brunell was essentially put off until such a decision had to be made.

So, what we know is this—Todd Collins will be the second, active quarterback on game days and Jason Campbell will be the inactive #3 man. If Brunell goes out during a game, Collins will come in. Other than that, we don't know anything. It's anyone's guess unless Collins throws three interceptions and the Redskins lose an 11-point lead. In that case it's a pretty safe bet—not certain, but pretty safe—that Campbell would start the next game. If Collins comes in in the middle of the third quarter and goes 7 for 15 for 101 yards but he hands the ball off to Clinton Portis well and the Redskins rally from a seven-point deficit and win, does he start the next week if Brunell still can't play? Is the bottom line the win or does a so-so passing performance warrant another chance?

Not even Gibbs or Saunders knows the answers to these questions right now. Such answers depend on dozens, perhaps hundreds of variables and the most basic of these are the coaches' gut feelings. The twist in this particular situation is that there are two guts to consider here, Saunders' and Gibbs'. Again, the best-case scenario is that Brunell takes every snap and the question never has to be put on the table. If not, however, it will be interesting to see how the gut check between Saunders and Gibbs will turn out.

Portis: No News is Good News (posted 09.04.06)

Some sloppy reporting over the weekend has led many to conclude that the chances are slim that Portis will take the field on Monday. A report on KFFL.com, which is a popular website that compiles sports reports from around the Internet and posts them in capsule form, said that Portis was \"doubtful\" for the opener. Here is the report:

Redskins | Portis doubtful for opener
\r\nSat, 2 Sep 2006 09:16:01 -0700

The Associated Press reports Washington Redskins RB Clinton Portis' (shoulder) availability for the season opener is in serious doubt, according to head coach Joe Gibbs.

This led to a rash of message board posts and talk-show calls from panicked Redskins fans saying that, see, the injury really is more serious than the Redskins are letting on. The problem is that Joe Gibbs never said any such thing. The last time he spoke to the media, which was on Friday, here is what he had to say about the injury situation:

With the exception of Clinton and Shawn, I think we know what we've got with everyone else (in terms of injuries). I think Clinton has done extremely well. We'll have a discussion with him and see what he thinks.

How they get \"serious doubt\" out of this statement, I have no idea. The folks at KFFL should know that the word \"doubtful\" has a very precise meaning in terms of NFL injuries. On the official injury report it means that there is a 75% chance that the player won't play. You simply can't draw that conclusion from what Gibbs said. It was quite sloppy and irresponsible of KFFL to have stated the situation in that way.

The view here is that it would be surprising, although not shocking, for Portis to sit out on Monday. This feeling is based on the simple fact that if the shoulder was considerably worse than the Redskins have been indicating that word of that would have leaked out by now. This story is national news. It is being pounded on all angles. The health of Portis' shoulder is a critical story in the fantasy football world. Ever since the injury happened on August 13 thousands of phone calls have been made in an effort to get a solid nugget of information indicating that the injury would either cost Portis some games or would seriously hamper his performance in 2006. Not one remotely credible report has come out indicating that either one of those is likely to happen.

In this case, the old saying rings very true—no news is good news.

This doesn't mean that there is no cause for concern. Although Portis is right handed and he prefers to carry the ball in that hand and the injury is to the left shoulder, consider the picture below.

[MEDIA:352334]

He's using his left arm to push off a defender and gain a few additional yards. If the arm you use for your stiff arm is stiff all season long, that could well to hamper your effectiveness, especially if defenders are coaches to grab that arm and yank on it. Yeah, that wouldn't really seem to be sporting, but don't think that Gregg Williams would hesitate to do the same thing if he was an opposing defensive coordinator and he knew that a well-timed yank might put the other team's best offensive player on the bench.

Regardless, it's been amusing to see many Redskins-bashing members of the media do such an abrupt about-face when it comes to the value of Clinton Portis. When the Redskins traded for Portis in 2004 these folks were incredulous that they would give up Champ Bailey and a #2 draft pick for a system back. When they signed Portis to a big contract extension a few months later, it was ridiculous to pay so much for a mere running back, a commodity that could be had for much, much less cap space.

Now that Portis may, just may, be affected by this shoulder injury the same journalists have dropped the Redskins from being a possible Super Bowl contender to a team that will be fortunate to finish around .500. His value is growing immeasurably in his absence. A little consistency would be nice, but why should these guys start now?

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