Bold Predictions--It Gets Late Early

Tandler's Redskins Blog Ver. 09.22.06--The Redskins have time to make something of their season, but it could be very late sooner than you think.

You can reach Rich Tandler by email at WarpathInsiders@comcast.net

Certainly, it's not too late for the Redskins to recover from their 0-2 start. In Joe Gibbs' first time around as coach in Washington he started 0-2 three times and 1-3 once.

The first 0-2 start came in 1981, Gibbs' first season as an NFL head coach. As we all know, that opening winless skid stretched to 0-5 before the team got its feet under itself and finished strong to wind up at 8-8.

In 1984 Dan Marino threw five touchdown passes and the Redskins got blasted by the Dolphins in the opener, losing that 35-17. The next week the 49ers had a 27-3 halftime lead and, while the Redskins rallied to make the score respectable at 37-31, the record still read 0-2. Washington recovered from its stumbling start, however, finishing with an 11-5 mark and the NFC East title.

In 1989, Washington not only lost its first two games, but they were both home games to division rivals. The Giants nipped them on a last-second field goal in the Monday night opener and then the Redskins blew a 20-0 lead to the Eagles and fell 42-37. That team finished 10-6 but missed the playoffs as two second-place teams in the NFC won 11 games.

The year of the 1-3 start was 1985 and, while Washington finished strong winning five of its last six games to finish as 10-6, tiebreakers cost them a Wild Card spot that year.

Given Gibbs' demonstrated ability to rally his teams, a double-digit win total and a playoff berth certainly still are realistic possibilities for the Redskins.

However, it's getting late already. If they don't get Al Saunders' complex offense figured out to a reasonable level of comfort and confidence—and that's every offensive player from Mark Brunell to the receivers to the backs to the line—soon they won't have enough time left in the season to make a run.

But you have to walk before making a run. And the initial steps will have to come in Reliant Stadium in Houston.

The Texans also are 0-2, but that record is not a surprise. They are recovering from having the league's worst record in 2005 and their realistic goal is to win half a dozen games or so. Their offensive line wasn't very good to begin with and now they've lost their starting left tackle and their center is banged up. The passing game featuring quarterback David Carr and receiver Andre Johnson has put up some good numbers, many of their yards have come late in their two blowout losses. Their defense is ranked last in the NFL statistically, although they have faced a couple of fairly potent offenses in the Eagles and Colts.

The result of this game is almost completely up to the Redskins. If they play like they did against Dallas they probably will lose. If they play like they did against Minnesota, it's a 50-50 proposition.

Should they begin to walk towards improvement, however, the Redskins should win, and do so fairly easily. A rusty Clinton Portis probably will find some tough going against a Houston defense that gears up to stop the run, but he should run well enough get some rhythm going in the offense. This will open things up for the passing game. Should things be in synch enough for the Redskins to take advantage of this and Mark Brunell can perform at a competent NFL level, Santana Moss should be able to snag a long one and, who knows, Chris Cooley and Brandon Lloyd might make their first meaningful receptions of the season.

Defensively, the key is the pass rush. Some were surprised that Gregg Williams didn't blitz more often the past two weeks, but veteran Williams watchers know that he doesn't tend to blitz older quarterbacks much, figuring that they know how to beat it. When facing younger, less experienced QB's like Carr he will blitz early, often, and from everywhere. Backers, safeties, corners, and maybe Williams himself will be coming after him. Dogs, stunts, zone blitzes, everything including the kitchen sink will be thrown at him.

This is the best-case scenario. It would be surprising, even shocking, to see everything come together suddenly. Look for some middle ground between where the Redskins are right now and where they want to be. Portis will gain around 75 yards and help keep the chains moving. The over-under is that Brunell will skip passes to two receivers, but he'll hit a reasonable number on the fly as well. He might even hit the 200 yard passing mark but an efficient 150 on 20 or so attempts is probably what we'll see.

Defensively, the Skins will get their share of sacks and, if the Washington offense is reasonably productive, the Texans running game has no shot. Still, with Carr and Johnson it's going to be difficult to shut them down completely.

A blowout isn't in the cards here. That would be fine by the Redskins, who need a win regardless of the adjective in front of it. They should get it, but they'll have to sweat it out. A late drive to a John Hall field goal will be necessary to salt this one away.

Redskins 20, Texans 10

Rich Tandler is the author of The Redskins From A to Z, Volume 1: The Games. This unique book has an account of every game the Redskins played from when the moved to Washington for the 1937 season through 2001. For details and ordering information go to http://www.RedskinsGames.com


Breaking Burgundy Top Stories

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You can reach Rich Tandler by email at WarpathInsiders@comcast.net

Certainly, it's not too late for the Redskins to recover from their 0-2 start. In Joe Gibbs' first time around as coach in Washington he started 0-2 three times and 1-3 once.

The first 0-2 start came in 1981, Gibbs' first season as an NFL head coach. As we all know, that opening winless skid stretched to 0-5 before the team got its feet under itself and finished strong to wind up at 8-8.

In 1984 Dan Marino threw five touchdown passes and the Redskins got blasted by the Dolphins in the opener, losing that 35-17. The next week the 49ers had a 27-3 halftime lead and, while the Redskins rallied to make the score respectable at 37-31, the record still read 0-2. Washington recovered from its stumbling start, however, finishing with an 11-5 mark and the NFC East title.

In 1989, Washington not only lost its first two games, but they were both home games to division rivals. The Giants nipped them on a last-second field goal in the Monday night opener and then the Redskins blew a 20-0 lead to the Eagles and fell 42-37. That team finished 10-6 but missed the playoffs as two second-place teams in the NFC won 11 games.

The year of the 1-3 start was 1985 and, while Washington finished strong winning five of its last six games to finish as 10-6, tiebreakers cost them a Wild Card spot that year.

Given Gibbs' demonstrated ability to rally his teams, a double-digit win total and a playoff berth certainly still are realistic possibilities for the Redskins.

However, it's getting late already. If they don't get Al Saunders' complex offense figured out to a reasonable level of comfort and confidence—and that's every offensive player from Mark Brunell to the receivers to the backs to the line—soon they won't have enough time left in the season to make a run.

But you have to walk before making a run. And the initial steps will have to come in Reliant Stadium in Houston.

The Texans also are 0-2, but that record is not a surprise. They are recovering from having the league's worst record in 2005 and their realistic goal is to win half a dozen games or so. Their offensive line wasn't very good to begin with and now they've lost their starting left tackle and their center is banged up. The passing game featuring quarterback David Carr and receiver Andre Johnson has put up some good numbers, many of their yards have come late in their two blowout losses. Their defense is ranked last in the NFL statistically, although they have faced a couple of fairly potent offenses in the Eagles and Colts.

The result of this game is almost completely up to the Redskins. If they play like they did against Dallas they probably will lose. If they play like they did against Minnesota, it's a 50-50 proposition.

Should they begin to walk towards improvement, however, the Redskins should win, and do so fairly easily. A rusty Clinton Portis probably will find some tough going against a Houston defense that gears up to stop the run, but he should run well enough get some rhythm going in the offense. This will open things up for the passing game. Should things be in synch enough for the Redskins to take advantage of this and Mark Brunell can perform at a competent NFL level, Santana Moss should be able to snag a long one and, who knows, Chris Cooley and Brandon Lloyd might make their first meaningful receptions of the season.

Defensively, the key is the pass rush. Some were surprised that Gregg Williams didn't blitz more often the past two weeks, but veteran Williams watchers know that he doesn't tend to blitz older quarterbacks much, figuring that they know how to beat it. When facing younger, less experienced QB's like Carr he will blitz early, often, and from everywhere. Backers, safeties, corners, and maybe Williams himself will be coming after him. Dogs, stunts, zone blitzes, everything including the kitchen sink will be thrown at him.

This is the best-case scenario. It would be surprising, even shocking, to see everything come together suddenly. Look for some middle ground between where the Redskins are right now and where they want to be. Portis will gain around 75 yards and help keep the chains moving. The over-under is that Brunell will skip passes to two receivers, but he'll hit a reasonable number on the fly as well. He might even hit the 200 yard passing mark but an efficient 150 on 20 or so attempts is probably what we'll see.

Defensively, the Skins will get their share of sacks and, if the Washington offense is reasonably productive, the Texans running game has no shot. Still, with Carr and Johnson it's going to be difficult to shut them down completely.

A blowout isn't in the cards here. That would be fine by the Redskins, who need a win regardless of the adjective in front of it. They should get it, but they'll have to sweat it out. A late drive to a John Hall field goal will be necessary to salt this one away.

Redskins 20, Texans 10

Rich Tandler is the author of The Redskins From A to Z, Volume 1: The Games. This unique book has an account of every game the Redskins played from when the moved to Washington for the 1937 season through 2001. For details and ordering information go to http://www.RedskinsGames.com

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