Predictions: Dink and Dunk Redux?

Tandler's Redskins Blog Ver. 09.29.06: Bold Predictions--Will we see another short passing exhibition by the Redskins this Sunday or will they have to open it up to beat the Jaguars?

You can reach Rich Tandler by email at WarpathInsiders@comcast.net

The short passing attack the Redskins used against Houston was fine, it served its purpose. They beat the Texans, the NFL equivalent of Duke, and Mark Brunell got his name into the NFL record book. But the beat the Jaguars, Washington will need to go deep, right? At least every once in a while, to keep them honest, won't they?

Maybe not.

There are plenty of reasons to believe that we will be treated, if that's the right word, to a repeat performance of the dink and dunk passing show that we saw last Sunday.

First of all, NFL coaches are addicts. They are addicted to what works and Al Saunders and Joe Gibbs liked what they saw last Sunday. After struggling for four preseason games and two regular-season contests, the offense clicked for 31 points. After having executed just two drives of 10 plays or more in the first two games, they had four such drives against Houston. Regardless of who the opponent is, there is a strong tendency towards not fixing it if it ain't broke.

Second, the short pass just may be the formula for beating Jacksonville. To beat the Jags' defense, you have to stay on the field. As discussed here earlier this week, they have held their opponents to an average of 23 minutes of possession per game. That's a lot of three and outs. More than a couple of those and you're done. Just as the Vikings did in the opener, Jacksonville will run the ball whether it's working or not. They're one of four NFL teams with over 100 rushing attempt this season despite the fact that they're averaging a pedestrian 3.7 yards a pop. They'll play the field position game very patiently.

This keeps their defense fresh, especially the massive heart of the unit, tackles Marcus Stroud (6-6, 321) and John Henderson (6-7, 328). If they're on the field for just about 50 snaps a game, as they have been so far this year, they can penetrate and disrupt.

A long pass "just to loosen things up" plays right into their hands. Such a play is a chance for them to get a breather while the offense lines back up. It's a wasted down and it puts that ball control offense one step closer to being back on the field and grinding up some more clock.

Of course if the long pass is complete it's a different story. You flip field position at the very least and put pressure on their defense. The choice the coaches and, as the one who will pull the trigger, Brunell will have to make is the risk of forcing something that hasn't worked all season vs. the reward of what happens if it works. On the heels of what happened with the short passing game last week, I just don't see a bombs away approach, or even much of an emphasis on intermediate routes.

Whether or not the short game will work is another story. The Jaguars' back seven is more physical and active than that of the Texans. The yards after catch may not be there. On average (see table below) Brunell's passes during his consecutive completions streak traveled about 2.75 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. If there is no YAC, that 2.75 times three doesn't equal a first down.

It's going to come down to the Redskins needing to find a way to get it done. Jacksonville isn't going to score a whole lot of points, maybe 13 or 17. It's doubtful that the Redskins will score three offensive touchdowns. They will need a kick return, an interception, a blocked kick, a couple of Derrick Frost punts rolling dead inside the five, maybe all of the above.

And they'll need to let the refs keep the laundry off of the field. Second and 20 against this defense is a ticket to disaster.

They'll also need John Hall to be in the form he was last Sunday when he boomed—OK, snuck—a 46-yard field goal over the crossbar. If he can get a couple of those and one chip shot, the Redskins will win.

Redskins 16, Jaguars 13

Brunell's record streak

Just to inject some facts into the discussion, here is a breakdown of Brunell's performance against Houston last Sunday. The first column is how far past, or behind, the line of scrimmage each pass was. Then there is the total gain on the play and then the yards after the catch and the player that caught each pass. You may draw your own conclusions here. I find it difficult to tell much from it because there is nothing to compare it to.

 

 

Point of pass

Gain

YAC

Receiver

 

-3

74

77

Portis

 

-2

13

15

Moss

 

3

9

6

Lloyd

 

1

6

5

Cooley

 

-5

23

28

Randle El

 

1

1

0

Sellers

 

-2

3

5

Sellers

 

3

4

1

Portis

 

-3

0

3

Cooley

 

6

14

8

Betts

 

6

6

0

Moss

 

-3

9

12

Cooley

 

25

25

0

Patten

 

4

4

0

Randle El

 

7

7

0

Randle El

 

1

7

6

Moss

 

4

5

1

Sellers

 

-3

8

11

Betts

 

3

5

2

Moss

 

8

11

3

Lloyd

 

10

13

3

Moss

 

0

6

6

Moss

Average Point

2.77

 

 

 

Rich Tandler is the author of The Redskins From A to Z, Volume 1: The Games. This unique book has an account of every game the Redskins played from when they moved to Washington for the 1937 season through 2001. For details and ordering information go to http://www.RedskinsGames.com


Breaking Burgundy Top Stories

\r\n\r\n","mobileBody":"

You can reach Rich Tandler by email at WarpathInsiders@comcast.net

The short passing attack the Redskins used against Houston was fine, it served its purpose. They beat the Texans, the NFL equivalent of Duke, and Mark Brunell got his name into the NFL record book. But the beat the Jaguars, Washington will need to go deep, right? At least every once in a while, to keep them honest, won't they?

Maybe not.

There are plenty of reasons to believe that we will be treated, if that's the right word, to a repeat performance of the dink and dunk passing show that we saw last Sunday.

First of all, NFL coaches are addicts. They are addicted to what works and Al Saunders and Joe Gibbs liked what they saw last Sunday. After struggling for four preseason games and two regular-season contests, the offense clicked for 31 points. After having executed just two drives of 10 plays or more in the first two games, they had four such drives against Houston. Regardless of who the opponent is, there is a strong tendency towards not fixing it if it ain't broke.

Second, the short pass just may be the formula for beating Jacksonville. To beat the Jags' defense, you have to stay on the field. As discussed here earlier this week, they have held their opponents to an average of 23 minutes of possession per game. That's a lot of three and outs. More than a couple of those and you're done. Just as the Vikings did in the opener, Jacksonville will run the ball whether it's working or not. They're one of four NFL teams with over 100 rushing attempt this season despite the fact that they're averaging a pedestrian 3.7 yards a pop. They'll play the field position game very patiently.

This keeps their defense fresh, especially the massive heart of the unit, tackles Marcus Stroud (6-6, 321) and John Henderson (6-7, 328). If they're on the field for just about 50 snaps a game, as they have been so far this year, they can penetrate and disrupt.

A long pass \"just to loosen things up\" plays right into their hands. Such a play is a chance for them to get a breather while the offense lines back up. It's a wasted down and it puts that ball control offense one step closer to being back on the field and grinding up some more clock.

Of course if the long pass is complete it's a different story. You flip field position at the very least and put pressure on their defense. The choice the coaches and, as the one who will pull the trigger, Brunell will have to make is the risk of forcing something that hasn't worked all season vs. the reward of what happens if it works. On the heels of what happened with the short passing game last week, I just don't see a bombs away approach, or even much of an emphasis on intermediate routes.

Whether or not the short game will work is another story. The Jaguars' back seven is more physical and active than that of the Texans. The yards after catch may not be there. On average (see table below) Brunell's passes during his consecutive completions streak traveled about 2.75 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. If there is no YAC, that 2.75 times three doesn't equal a first down.

It's going to come down to the Redskins needing to find a way to get it done. Jacksonville isn't going to score a whole lot of points, maybe 13 or 17. It's doubtful that the Redskins will score three offensive touchdowns. They will need a kick return, an interception, a blocked kick, a couple of Derrick Frost punts rolling dead inside the five, maybe all of the above.

And they'll need to let the refs keep the laundry off of the field. Second and 20 against this defense is a ticket to disaster.

They'll also need John Hall to be in the form he was last Sunday when he boomed—OK, snuck—a 46-yard field goal over the crossbar. If he can get a couple of those and one chip shot, the Redskins will win.

Redskins 16, Jaguars 13

Brunell's record streak

Just to inject some facts into the discussion, here is a breakdown of Brunell's performance against Houston last Sunday. The first column is how far past, or behind, the line of scrimmage each pass was. Then there is the total gain on the play and then the yards after the catch and the player that caught each pass. You may draw your own conclusions here. I find it difficult to tell much from it because there is nothing to compare it to.

 

\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n
\r\n

 

\r\n
\r\n

Point of pass

\r\n
\r\n

Gain

\r\n
\r\n

YAC

\r\n
\r\n

Receiver

\r\n
\r\n

 

\r\n
\r\n

-3

\r\n
\r\n

74

\r\n
\r\n

77

\r\n
\r\n

Portis

\r\n
\r\n

 

\r\n
\r\n

-2

\r\n
\r\n

13

\r\n
\r\n

15

\r\n
\r\n

Moss

\r\n
\r\n

 

\r\n
\r\n

3

\r\n
\r\n

9

\r\n
\r\n

6

\r\n
\r\n

Lloyd

\r\n
\r\n

 

\r\n
\r\n

1

\r\n
\r\n

6

\r\n
\r\n

5

\r\n
\r\n

Cooley

\r\n
\r\n

 

\r\n
\r\n

-5

\r\n
\r\n

23

\r\n
\r\n

28

\r\n
\r\n

Randle El

\r\n
\r\n

 

\r\n
\r\n

1

\r\n
\r\n

1

\r\n
\r\n

0

\r\n
\r\n

Sellers

\r\n
\r\n

 

\r\n
\r\n

-2

\r\n
\r\n

3

\r\n
\r\n

5

\r\n
\r\n

Sellers

\r\n
\r\n

 

\r\n
\r\n

3

\r\n
\r\n

4

\r\n
\r\n

1

\r\n
\r\n

Portis

\r\n
\r\n

 

\r\n
\r\n

-3

\r\n
\r\n

0

\r\n
\r\n

3

\r\n
\r\n

Cooley

\r\n
\r\n

 

\r\n
\r\n

6

\r\n
\r\n

14

\r\n
\r\n

8

\r\n
\r\n

Betts

\r\n
\r\n

 

\r\n
\r\n

6

\r\n
\r\n

6

\r\n
\r\n

0

\r\n
\r\n

Moss

\r\n
\r\n

 

\r\n
\r\n

-3

\r\n
\r\n

9

\r\n
\r\n

12

\r\n
\r\n

Cooley

\r\n
\r\n

 

\r\n
\r\n

25

\r\n
\r\n

25

\r\n
\r\n

0

\r\n
\r\n

Patten

\r\n
\r\n

 

\r\n
\r\n

4

\r\n
\r\n

4

\r\n
\r\n

0

\r\n
\r\n

Randle El

\r\n
\r\n

 

\r\n
\r\n

7

\r\n
\r\n

7

\r\n
\r\n

0

\r\n
\r\n

Randle El

\r\n
\r\n

 

\r\n
\r\n

1

\r\n
\r\n

7

\r\n
\r\n

6

\r\n
\r\n

Moss

\r\n
\r\n

 

\r\n
\r\n

4

\r\n
\r\n

5

\r\n
\r\n

1

\r\n
\r\n

Sellers

\r\n
\r\n

 

\r\n
\r\n

-3

\r\n
\r\n

8

\r\n
\r\n

11

\r\n
\r\n

Betts

\r\n
\r\n

 

\r\n
\r\n

3

\r\n
\r\n

5

\r\n
\r\n

2

\r\n
\r\n

Moss

\r\n
\r\n

 

\r\n
\r\n

8

\r\n
\r\n

11

\r\n
\r\n

3

\r\n
\r\n

Lloyd

\r\n
\r\n

 

\r\n
\r\n

10

\r\n
\r\n

13

\r\n
\r\n

3

\r\n
\r\n

Moss

\r\n
\r\n

 

\r\n
\r\n

0

\r\n
\r\n

6

\r\n
\r\n

6

\r\n
\r\n

Moss

\r\n
\r\n

Average\r\n Point

\r\n
\r\n

2.77

\r\n
\r\n

 

\r\n
\r\n

 

\r\n
\r\n

 

\r\n

Rich Tandler is the author of The Redskins From A to Z, Volume 1: The Games. This unique book has an account of every game the Redskins played from when they moved to Washington for the 1937 season through 2001. For details and ordering information go to http://www.RedskinsGames.com

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