Bold Predictions: Grind 'Em Up

Tandler's Redskins Blog Ver. 10.13.06--The FedEx Field turf should be pretty well traveled patch of grass on Sunday after the Skins and Titans are finished with it.

You can reach Rich Tandler by email at WarpathInsiders@comcast.net

A year ago after five games the Redskins sat at 3-2. They were coming off of consecutive road losses to AFC opponents in Denver and in Kansas City after starting the season with three straight wins. In the opener they edged a Chicago team that nobody thought would wind up the year with a first-round bye. They followed that up with their game in Dallas that consisted of over three and a half forgettable quarters followed by five minutes for the ages. After a bye week they blew a 14-3 third-quarter lead before edging Seattle in overtime.

Their record stands just one game worse this year at 2-3 but it's what the politicians call the internals of the results that are causing consternation out there. They are 0-2 in the division and 0-3 against the NFC. In 2005 Washington was 5-1 vs. the NFC East and 10-2 against the NFC. The Redskins are already guaranteed of a worse performance in those tiebreakers for playoff spots than they had last year.

It's getting to the point where people are talking like the Redskins are in the SEC or something where non-conference wins don't count in the conference standings. This is the NFL--wins are wins. The NFC games are important but not necessarily of the make or break variety.

Last year the Redskins swept the NFC West and got swept by the AFC West. Had they reversed those outcomes, had they gone 0-4 in those in-conference games and won all four of those AFC games, they would have had exactly the same playoff seed as they actually ended up with. The in-conference wins meant nothing.

In fact, in and of itself, the 5-1 division record didn't help them. Washington was the only 10-6 team in the division—in the whole NFC for that matter—so the tiebreaker didn't matter. Of course the sweep over Dallas helped as it gave them two wins and dealt the Cowboys two losses and the Redskins finished a game ahead of them. But any route to 10-6 would have gotten them the same playoff invite as long as the Cowboys were still 9-7 or worse.

The Redskins' last nine games are against NFC opponents, but first there are AFC games against the Colts in Indianapolis on October 22 and their contest at FedEx Field this Sunday against the Tennessee Titans.

Make that the lowly Titans. Super Bowl participants in 1999 and playoff regulars for a few years after that, they have fallen and they can't get up. Tennessee is 0-5. They have lost some close ones, dropping one to Miami 13-10 and giving the Colts all they could handle last week before losing 14-13. They have been blown out twice, 40-7 by San Diego and 45-13 by Dallas.

The number that should interest the Redskins is 172.3. That is the number is rushing yards per game that the Titans have given up this year. Clinton Portis, Ladell Betts, Rock Cartwright and maybe even T. J. Duckett had better get their running shoes on.

Joe Gibbs' teams are now 120-19 when they have 30 or more rushing attempts in a game. The Redskins should have that many by the latter stages of the third quarter. The goal will be to move the chains and grind up and wear down the Titans.

While the Redskins' run defense is considerably stingier than that of the Titans, look for Tennessee to take the land route on Sunday as well. You need to look back no further than last Sunday, when the Redskins allowed 127 yards rushing to the Giants Tiki Barber while in Indianapolis the Titans were running for 214 yards as a team, to gather the data needed to predict confidently that the Titans will keep the ball on the ground.

Another big reason that both teams will be running a lot is the presence in the Titans' lineup of quarterback Vince Young, who will be making his third NFL start. Tennessee will want to run to keep Young out of certain passing situations. Washington will want to run to keep Young out of the game. He's a wild card in this game, a great athlete that there isn't much film on. The more snaps he gets the better the chance he'll make some sort of highlight-reel play that will change the momentum of the game.

With all of the expecting rushing attempts, the unofficial over-under on the time of this game is about 2:43. If you're going to the game, you can make early dinner reservations with confidence.

This could have been one of those games that has you sniffing the air like a curious dog and saying, "Hmmm, sniff-sniff, I smell an upset here." This would have been a classic trap game had the Redskins been able to win in the Meadowlands last Sunday. But with the Redskins at 2-3 and the trip to Indy pending there is no way that the Titans will catch them napping.

The Redskins aren't an elite team, they're not even close at this point, but they are a few notches better than the Titans. Look for Portis to go for a buck and a half on the ground. Mark Brunell should have an efficient day on about 15 pass attempts. Young will make a nice run or two, but he'll turn it over a couple of times to offset the positive plays. The Washington defense will get confidence as the game goes on, start swarming to the ball, and maybe even score a touchdown for the first time this year.

Redskins 27, Titans 7

Rich Tandler is the author of The Redskins From A to Z, Volume 1: The Games. This unique book has an account of every game the Redskins played from when they moved to Washington for the 1937 season through 2001. For details and ordering information go to http://www.RedskinsGames.com


Breaking Burgundy Top Stories

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You can reach Rich Tandler by email at WarpathInsiders@comcast.net

A year ago after five games the Redskins sat at 3-2. They were coming off of consecutive road losses to AFC opponents in Denver and in Kansas City after starting the season with three straight wins. In the opener they edged a Chicago team that nobody thought would wind up the year with a first-round bye. They followed that up with their game in Dallas that consisted of over three and a half forgettable quarters followed by five minutes for the ages. After a bye week they blew a 14-3 third-quarter lead before edging Seattle in overtime.

Their record stands just one game worse this year at 2-3 but it's what the politicians call the internals of the results that are causing consternation out there. They are 0-2 in the division and 0-3 against the NFC. In 2005 Washington was 5-1 vs. the NFC East and 10-2 against the NFC. The Redskins are already guaranteed of a worse performance in those tiebreakers for playoff spots than they had last year.

It's getting to the point where people are talking like the Redskins are in the SEC or something where non-conference wins don't count in the conference standings. This is the NFL--wins are wins. The NFC games are important but not necessarily of the make or break variety.

Last year the Redskins swept the NFC West and got swept by the AFC West. Had they reversed those outcomes, had they gone 0-4 in those in-conference games and won all four of those AFC games, they would have had exactly the same playoff seed as they actually ended up with. The in-conference wins meant nothing.

In fact, in and of itself, the 5-1 division record didn't help them. Washington was the only 10-6 team in the division—in the whole NFC for that matter—so the tiebreaker didn't matter. Of course the sweep over Dallas helped as it gave them two wins and dealt the Cowboys two losses and the Redskins finished a game ahead of them. But any route to 10-6 would have gotten them the same playoff invite as long as the Cowboys were still 9-7 or worse.

The Redskins' last nine games are against NFC opponents, but first there are AFC games against the Colts in Indianapolis on October 22 and their contest at FedEx Field this Sunday against the Tennessee Titans.

Make that the lowly Titans. Super Bowl participants in 1999 and playoff regulars for a few years after that, they have fallen and they can't get up. Tennessee is 0-5. They have lost some close ones, dropping one to Miami 13-10 and giving the Colts all they could handle last week before losing 14-13. They have been blown out twice, 40-7 by San Diego and 45-13 by Dallas.

The number that should interest the Redskins is 172.3. That is the number is rushing yards per game that the Titans have given up this year. Clinton Portis, Ladell Betts, Rock Cartwright and maybe even T. J. Duckett had better get their running shoes on.

Joe Gibbs' teams are now 120-19 when they have 30 or more rushing attempts in a game. The Redskins should have that many by the latter stages of the third quarter. The goal will be to move the chains and grind up and wear down the Titans.

While the Redskins' run defense is considerably stingier than that of the Titans, look for Tennessee to take the land route on Sunday as well. You need to look back no further than last Sunday, when the Redskins allowed 127 yards rushing to the Giants Tiki Barber while in Indianapolis the Titans were running for 214 yards as a team, to gather the data needed to predict confidently that the Titans will keep the ball on the ground.

Another big reason that both teams will be running a lot is the presence in the Titans' lineup of quarterback Vince Young, who will be making his third NFL start. Tennessee will want to run to keep Young out of certain passing situations. Washington will want to run to keep Young out of the game. He's a wild card in this game, a great athlete that there isn't much film on. The more snaps he gets the better the chance he'll make some sort of highlight-reel play that will change the momentum of the game.

With all of the expecting rushing attempts, the unofficial over-under on the time of this game is about 2:43. If you're going to the game, you can make early dinner reservations with confidence.

This could have been one of those games that has you sniffing the air like a curious dog and saying, \"Hmmm, sniff-sniff, I smell an upset here.\" This would have been a classic trap game had the Redskins been able to win in the Meadowlands last Sunday. But with the Redskins at 2-3 and the trip to Indy pending there is no way that the Titans will catch them napping.

The Redskins aren't an elite team, they're not even close at this point, but they are a few notches better than the Titans. Look for Portis to go for a buck and a half on the ground. Mark Brunell should have an efficient day on about 15 pass attempts. Young will make a nice run or two, but he'll turn it over a couple of times to offset the positive plays. The Washington defense will get confidence as the game goes on, start swarming to the ball, and maybe even score a touchdown for the first time this year.

Redskins 27, Titans 7

Rich Tandler is the author of The Redskins From A to Z, Volume 1: The Games. This unique book has an account of every game the Redskins played from when they moved to Washington for the 1937 season through 2001. For details and ordering information go to http://www.RedskinsGames.com

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