Bold Predictions: Football 101 Key for Skins

Tandler's Redskins Blog Ver. 12.16.06--Bold Predictions: If the Redskins are going to beat the Saints they are going to have to keep the ball away from them when they're on offense and take it away from New Orleans on defense.

You can reach Rich Tandler by email at WarpathInsiders@comcast.net

It doesn't seem like anyone in the NFC can stand good fortune and the accolades that come with it.

The Carolina Panthers were the consensus preseason pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. They have been behind the 8-ball ever since an 0-2 start. Even when the Bears were undefeated they were in the throes of a quarterback controversy that has now been quieted but hasn't gone away. Seattle looked like it was going to make a run before Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander got hurt. They came back and the Seahawks promptly lost to Arizona and San Francisco. Everyone declared that the Eagles were back after an off year in 2005 when they were 4-1. They then lost consecutive games on last-second field goals, the second a 62-yarder. The Giants were 6-2 at midseason. After losing two in a row they were on the verge of righting the ship in Tennessee as they held a 21-0 lead in the fourth quarter. That lead withered and died under a Vince Young-led Titans rally. Then it appeared that the Dallas Cowboys were going to ride a hot Tony Romo to a first-round bye. It came crashing down for them last Sunday as they lost to the New Orleans Saints by 25 points at home.

So, now it's the Saints' turn to see if they can stand prosperity. As of now they hold the NFC's second seed, which would give them a first-round bye and a second-round game at home. Their opponent this week is a team that has not had the problem of needing to deal with prosperity, the Washington Redskins.

The Redskins' biggest problem in this game, what appears to be the worst mismatch, is their pass defense against Saints quarterback Drew Brees. The Washington defense has had a propensity for giving up big plays and Brees and the Saints have a propensity for making them.

And it's not like the Redskins can focus on trying to take on receiver away from Brees to stop the long gainer. Four different New Orleans receivers have receptions of over 70 yards this year.

The way the Redskins need to combat this is Football 101. They need to run the ball with Ladell Betts. If Betts had his tongue hanging out after carrying 33 times last week against the Eagles it should be dragging on the ground after this game. Every time 40 seconds ticks off of the game clock that's 40 seconds fewer that Brees has to work with.

What makes using this strategy a no brainer is the fact that New Orleans has one of the league's weaker rush defenses. They give up an average of 5.1 yards a carry.

The Redskins faced a similar situation once before this season. They went on the road to play in a dome against a team with a hot quarterback and a weak rush defense. In the RCA Dome they led Indianapolis 14-13 at halftime. Their pass run balance wasn't quite ideal, with 11 rushing attempts to 16 passes called. Eleven attempts weren't enough to soften up the quick, light Colts defense.

When Peyton Manning went to work in the third quarter, this showed. The Colts scored three times on their patented lightning-quick drives. In between the Redskins were able to muster drives of three and five plays. Game over.

If the Redskins are to have a chance this Sunday, they have to run the ball 11 times in their first two possessions. On top of that, though, Jason Campbell needs to make the throws that will keep drives alive. A ground-based offense will help in this game only if it moves the chains and puts points up on the board.

It's going to be up to the Washington defense to contain Brees, Reggie Bush, Deuce McAllister and receiver Marques Colston, to at least slow them down. The Redskins and Campbell are ill suited to compete in a shootout.

Again, the best defense against this group is to keep them on the bench. Can the Redskins do that? Yes, but not enough to win the game. Betts will get plenty of carries and plenty of yards, perhaps a buck and a half. But the once-immutable law that said that if a Joe Gibbs back goes for more than 100 yards the Redskins would automatically win will again be violated. Because, you see, the defenses that played for Gibbs' teams used to enough takeaways to give the offense a short field to work with on occasion. There's nothing like an interception returned to the 12 and three straight runs for six quick points. The Redskins have all of 13 points off of turnovers all year long.

Unless the Redskins all of a sudden turn around their honest ways and steal the ball from the Saints a few times Betts' efforts will again be in vain. There is no reason to think that they will. The Saints should be able to thrive under prosperity and all but wrap up a first round bye.

Saints 31, Redskins 17

Rich Tandler is the author of The Redskins From A to Z, Volume 1: The Games. This unique book has an account of every game the Redskins played from when they moved to Washington for the 1937 season through 2001. It makes the perfect stocking stuffer for the Redskins fans on your shopping list. For details and ordering information go to http://www.RedskinsGames.com


Breaking Burgundy Top Stories

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You can reach Rich Tandler by email at WarpathInsiders@comcast.net

It doesn't seem like anyone in the NFC can stand good fortune and the accolades that come with it.

The Carolina Panthers were the consensus preseason pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. They have been behind the 8-ball ever since an 0-2 start. Even when the Bears were undefeated they were in the throes of a quarterback controversy that has now been quieted but hasn't gone away. Seattle looked like it was going to make a run before Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander got hurt. They came back and the Seahawks promptly lost to Arizona and San Francisco. Everyone declared that the Eagles were back after an off year in 2005 when they were 4-1. They then lost consecutive games on last-second field goals, the second a 62-yarder. The Giants were 6-2 at midseason. After losing two in a row they were on the verge of righting the ship in Tennessee as they held a 21-0 lead in the fourth quarter. That lead withered and died under a Vince Young-led Titans rally. Then it appeared that the Dallas Cowboys were going to ride a hot Tony Romo to a first-round bye. It came crashing down for them last Sunday as they lost to the New Orleans Saints by 25 points at home.

So, now it's the Saints' turn to see if they can stand prosperity. As of now they hold the NFC's second seed, which would give them a first-round bye and a second-round game at home. Their opponent this week is a team that has not had the problem of needing to deal with prosperity, the Washington Redskins.

The Redskins' biggest problem in this game, what appears to be the worst mismatch, is their pass defense against Saints quarterback Drew Brees. The Washington defense has had a propensity for giving up big plays and Brees and the Saints have a propensity for making them.

And it's not like the Redskins can focus on trying to take on receiver away from Brees to stop the long gainer. Four different New Orleans receivers have receptions of over 70 yards this year.

The way the Redskins need to combat this is Football 101. They need to run the ball with Ladell Betts. If Betts had his tongue hanging out after carrying 33 times last week against the Eagles it should be dragging on the ground after this game. Every time 40 seconds ticks off of the game clock that's 40 seconds fewer that Brees has to work with.

What makes using this strategy a no brainer is the fact that New Orleans has one of the league's weaker rush defenses. They give up an average of 5.1 yards a carry.

The Redskins faced a similar situation once before this season. They went on the road to play in a dome against a team with a hot quarterback and a weak rush defense. In the RCA Dome they led Indianapolis 14-13 at halftime. Their pass run balance wasn't quite ideal, with 11 rushing attempts to 16 passes called. Eleven attempts weren't enough to soften up the quick, light Colts defense.

When Peyton Manning went to work in the third quarter, this showed. The Colts scored three times on their patented lightning-quick drives. In between the Redskins were able to muster drives of three and five plays. Game over.

If the Redskins are to have a chance this Sunday, they have to run the ball 11 times in their first two possessions. On top of that, though, Jason Campbell needs to make the throws that will keep drives alive. A ground-based offense will help in this game only if it moves the chains and puts points up on the board.

It's going to be up to the Washington defense to contain Brees, Reggie Bush, Deuce McAllister and receiver Marques Colston, to at least slow them down. The Redskins and Campbell are ill suited to compete in a shootout.

Again, the best defense against this group is to keep them on the bench. Can the Redskins do that? Yes, but not enough to win the game. Betts will get plenty of carries and plenty of yards, perhaps a buck and a half. But the once-immutable law that said that if a Joe Gibbs back goes for more than 100 yards the Redskins would automatically win will again be violated. Because, you see, the defenses that played for Gibbs' teams used to enough takeaways to give the offense a short field to work with on occasion. There's nothing like an interception returned to the 12 and three straight runs for six quick points. The Redskins have all of 13 points off of turnovers all year long.

Unless the Redskins all of a sudden turn around their honest ways and steal the ball from the Saints a few times Betts' efforts will again be in vain. There is no reason to think that they will. The Saints should be able to thrive under prosperity and all but wrap up a first round bye.

Saints 31, Redskins 17

Rich Tandler is the author of The Redskins From A to Z, Volume 1: The Games. This unique book has an account of every game the Redskins played from when they moved to Washington for the 1937 season through 2001. It makes the perfect stocking stuffer for the Redskins fans on your shopping list. For details and ordering information go to http://www.RedskinsGames.com

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