There are shortages of many things in this world, but one thing is in ample supply, especially this time of year: Mock Drafts. They proliferate like rabbits, densely packing the landscape between February and May.
The multitude of mocks with their conflicting predictions is enough to leave an NFL fan filled with stress, at a loss for where to turn amidst the din.
But don’t worry. Scout is here to help.
Using the very latest available computer technology, we’ve created the perfect tool to make sense of multitudes of mock drafts: The Mock Draft Muncher.
By entering dozens of mock drafts into a database and then analyzing them for averages, trends, high/low selections and more, the Mock Draft Muncher provides an aggregate view of what’s going on in the world of mock drafts. Now, with the Mock Draft Muncher, you can get on with your busy day WITHOUT having to visit 30 updated mock drafts every day to keep track of who’s rising and falling.
In this article, we’ll try to make sense of all this data to come up with a simulated first round based on what the mock drafts are telling us.
Keep in mind, we’re trying to make sense out of nearly thirty mock drafts mixed up together in a blender. Sometimes players will “leak” through the mock drafts and continually be the second or third pick at a selection until the mock drafts don’t think they would be considered any further down the line. Maybe a player will be the second-most popular selection at the fifth, sixth, and seventh spots in the draft. Well, he would be a heck of a bargain at the fifteenth spot but most Mocks won’t consider him there. We will.
To handle those cases, we’ll compare ADP (average draft position) to the spot in the draft and positions of need and sometimes ignore what the mocks say to snap up “values” that are falling in our simulated draft. Most of the time, though, we’ll just go with who the mock drafts say will be selected at a certain spot.
Here we go!
Maybe it’s those pictures of “fat Jameis”, but Marcus Mariota is charging hard for the #1 slot over the last week. He’s all but caught up with Winston in the “Average Draft Position” measure, and has nearly caught up with him at this selection. Winston has been picked 15 times, and Mariota 12. But, for now, it’s Winston holding onto the top spot per the majority of mock drafts.
Mariota is a popular pick here as well, trailing Williams by three selections (ten to seven), but Williams has to be considered the pick. Despite Mariota and Winston being at the top of nearly every mock draft, Williams actually has the lowest average draft position of anyone, rarely dropping below the third overall pick in any mock draft, whereas Winston and Mariota often drop to sixth or tenth if they don’t go in the first two picks.
More mock drafts (12) have Williams selected here than Gregory (11), but it’s close, and Williams was the selection by the Titans above, so Gregory goes to the Jaguars in our simulation. Other than Williams and Gregory, only Dante Fowler, Shane Ray, and Amari Cooper have been mentioned in mock drafts as going to the Jaguars.
If there’s one pick that’s a sure-fire lock, according to the mocks, it’s that Amari Cooper is going to the Raiders. Cooper is the selection of more than half the mock drafts, being picked four times more than Randy Gregory. This one ain’t close.
Now things are starting to get complicated and diluted. Ray is the most popular pick at this selection, but just by one over Gregory, and by two over OL Brandon Scherff. This pick may change in coming mocks. And to think that Pat Kirwan didn’t even have Ray in the first round in his initial mock draft. He’s in Kirwan’s mock now, though, for sure.
Mariota is coming on strong as the top pick for the Bucs, but he’s been the leader in the mocks since coming out of the clubhouse for the Jets, never giving up the lead since early January. The number two pick for the Jets? Jameis Winston. After that, the mocks have them taking Amari Cooper, Shane Ray, and Randy Gregory, none of whom are really likely to be here.
Shelton has only really emerged as a consensus pick at this position in the last ten days, but he’s landing at number seven with a bullet now, with Landon Collins and Dante Fowler far behind in the rear view mirror. It’s like everyone had a meeting and decided that Shelton was going to go to the Bears, after all.
As much as Amari Cooper to the Raiders is considered a lock by the mock drafts, Dante Fowler to the Falcons is just about as close a lock. Fowler is the pick by half the mock drafts, with OLB Vic Beasley getting less than half the selections.
There’s not much of consensus on who the Giants will take, with 14 different players being selected in 28 mock drafts, but Scherff is the selection by a quarter of those drafts. He’s really emerged as the consensus pick over the last two weeks.
Nineteen of the mock drafts have the Rams taking an offensive lineman: Peat in eight mocks, Scherff in eight, La’el Collins in three. Amari Cooper somehow drops down here in two mock drafts, as does Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota in three. Don’t tell Sam Bradford.
Vikings reporters and prognosticators can just close up shop and go home: it’s going to be WR DeVante Parker, at least according to the Mock Drafts. Parker is the selection of fifteen of the mocks, with the next closest selection being picked only by two of them. Parker started to emerge as the trendy pick over Kevin White about two weeks ago, and it’s been a runaway ever since.
The Browns need help in a whole lot of areas, but mock drafts agree that they’re going to turn to WR Kevin White out of West Virginia, who is selected by nearly half the mock drafts to go to the Browns here.
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It probably means something that 27 out of 28 mock draft selections for the Saints were defensive players (OL Brandon Scherff being the exception in one mock. Take a bow, Dane Brugler). Of those defenders, Beasley (8) outpaced DE Alvin Dupree (5) as the favorite.
Like the Browns, selections for the Dolphins are all over the map, with linebackers, receivers, defensive linemen, offensive linemen, tight ends, and corners all being selected. Shaq Thompson edged out all of them, however, being selected six times.
This one is tough to select. Green-Beckham, CB Trae Waynes, and WR Kevin White (selected by the Browns above) all were picked by four mocks. Jaelen Strong was next with three selections, so we’ve arbitrarily said that the mocks favored the wide receiver over the cornerback and selected Green-Beckham over Waynes. Really a toss-up, but when you’re trying to make sense out of a jumble of mock drafts, one has to make difficult decisions. This is ours.
It’s a good thing we picked the wide receiver for San Francisco, because Waynes was the most popular pick for the Chargers at the number sixteen spot. A quarter of the mock drafts selected the Spartan cornerback, followed by S Landon Collins of Alabama with five. Collins, with an ADP (average draft position) of 13, already looking like a value pick here, even though he hasn’t been top pick at any point in the aggregated mock drafts.
The Chargers selections were also all over the map (Alvin Dupree was selected a handful of times and might be officially falling through cracks in the mock draft along with Collins). Yet, there was surprising consensus around Gordon, picked by a quarter of the mocks.
There was actually a three way tie again here at this pick, with S Landon Collins, Strong, and WR Green-Beckham all picked by four mocks. Again, we used the logic that Green-Beckham was already selected, and that the majority of mocks favored wide receiver, so selected Strong over Collins at this pick even though Strong has a higher ADP. Tough because Collins is a good value. Four of the top mock draft picks for the Chiefs were wide receivers.
19. Cleveland Browns, Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State
The Brown got help at WR with their first pick at #12, so we’re ignoring mock drafts which call for them pick another wide receiver here. It just doesn’t make sense, and those mock drafts probably had them going in another direction above. What’s left is a massive jumble of selections from two and three mocks, so we’re left with Eddie Goldman, DT, selected by just three mock drafts.
No such finagling is required here, as Peters is the pick of six of the mock drafts, with already-selected CB Trae Waynes coming in second with five. Third and fourth are two other corners, P.J. Williams and Quinten Rollins. Guess folks think the Eagles are going to take a corner. Which means they probably aren’t.
The Bengals get a value pick here as their second-most popular choice, Dupree is available. Dupree has an ADP of less than 19, which means the Bengals are getting a bit of a bargain according to the mocks, just for pulling a defensive end across the Ohio River to join Marvin Lewis’ defense. There are nineteen different selections for the Bengals in twenty-eight different mocks. Not much of a consensus, but Dupree was a popular choice.
This is a three way tie between Rollins, Alvin Dupree (selected above), and CB P.J. Williams. We picked Rollins because of the Steelers success with other MAC players. Sorry if that’s sort of random. Three of the top four Steeler picks in mock drafts were corners. Nearly all picks in the 28 mocks were defensive players.
Sorry, Lions, Eddie Goldman was close to a consensus at this point, with nearly a quarter of the mock drafts slating him to go here. But the Browns snagged him at pick #19. Defensive tackles were the three other two top picks as well (Jordan Phillips and Michael Bennett).
24. Arizona Cardinals, Benardrick McKinney, MLB, Miss St
It’s all about the linebacker position for the Cardinals, who have Vic Beasley, Eric Kendricks, and Benadrick McKinney all at four selections at this spot in the draft. McKinney has the lowest ADP of the two remaining linebackers, so he gets the nod here.
There’s some really good offensive line value based on how this simulated draft has broken so far, with Flowers, T.J. Clemmings, and La’el Collins all going after they were expected. The Panthers get their pick and, according to the mocks, the pick is expected to be Flowers (7) over Clemmings (6) and Collins (6).
Funchess is the consensus pick of the mocks with five selections. The next three picks for the Ravens: Jaelen Strong, Melvin Gordon, and Quinten Rollins, are all off the board already.
Interesting situation here with Collins and Clemmings still on the board, but the Cowboys rarely go offensive line in any of the mocks, and there’s a strong consensus they’ll turn to Gurley to replace Murray.
28. Denver Broncos, T.J. Clemmings, OT, PITT
Cameron Erving is the most popular pick in the mock drafts, but Clemmings is a value here and many mocks show the Broncos going offensive tackle. We stop the drop and pick Clemmings and his 24 ADP over Erving and his 32 ADP here. Now, if only we can find a home for S Landon Collins and his 13 ADP…
29. Indianapolis Colts, Landon Collins, S, Alabama
The top pick for the Colts (Gordon) is already off the board, as is the fourth pick (Jaelen Strong). Granted, the Colts need a playmaker and could use some help at running back, but with Gordon and Gurley off the board, we have them taking the value pick with Collins, who was the selection in two of the mock drafts for the Colts. Going too far astray from the mock drafts? Perhaps, but Collins shouldn’t be allowed to drop any further.
MLB Benardrick McKinney is actually the most popular pick here, but he’s already off the board, so we look to the second-most popular picks, Denzel Perryman and Kendricks, both middle linebackers. Kendricks has the lower average draft position, so he’s the pick here.
Pretty strong consensus for this late in the draft with nearly a quarter of the mock drafts (six) selecting Sammie Coates for the Seahawks. TE Maxx Williams was the next most popular pick with four selections.
Per usual, no one has the slightest idea what Bill Belichick is going to do. Three mocks have him taking Devin Smith to aid his budget wide receiver corps, and three have him taking DT Jordan Phillips. Your guess is as good as theirs.