Breaking down draft value in Philadelphia Eagles-Cleveland Browns trade

The Eagles made their move up to No. 2 in the draft to grab one of the top two quarterbacks, but how did they do in the old draft value chart in their trade with the Browns?

Philadelphia Eagles general manager Howie Roseman portrayed a confident attitude that he made the right move for Eagles in trading up to the No. 2 overall pick in next week’s NFL draft. If the Eagles wanted one of the top two quarterbacks in the NFL draft, they needed to get one of the top two picks.

So, less than a week after the Los Angeles Rams traded up from No. 15 overall to the No. 1 overall pick with the Tennessee Titans, the Eagles made a deal with the Cleveland Browns to get the No. 2 overall pick.

Roseman told reporters that the only way to make this trade was to be comfortable with both of the top two quarterbacks – Carson Wentz and Jared Goff. And looking at what was going to be available in future draft classes at quarterback, he felt the franchise had to strike when a quarterback was available that new head coach Doug Pederson, a former NFL quarterback himself, liked.

Yet, Roseman also said Sam Bradford is the Eagles’ starter this year and won’t be traded.

The Eagles put their draft future where their quarterback analysis was.

https://twitter.com/Eagles/status/722843520655040516/photo/1

So, just like Scout.com did with last week’s big trade, let’s look at what the draft value chart based off Jimmy Johnson’s old valuations says about this trade. First, a caveat: some people believe that future draft picks that are traded are devalued on the draft chart by one round since the receiving team won’t realize those benefits this year. So we go with that assumption in marking up the future picks involved with this trade.

The fourth-rounder in 2017 that the Eagles get in the trade was valued as a fifth-rounder in our first calculations. The 2017 first-rounder that the Browns got was valued as a second-rounder, and the 2018 second-rounder that the Browns got was valued as a fourth-rounder since it is two years away. Those future picks were all valued at the middle of those rounds since it is impossible to say for certain where those teams will finish in 2016 and beyond.

With that explanation, here is the how the trade breaks down on the value chart:

EAGLES GET

2016: Round 1, No. 2 overall: 2,600 points

2017: Round 4 (valued as fifth round and No. 114 overall): 34 points

Totals points value: 2,634

BROWNS GET

2016: Round 1, No. 8 overall: 1,400 points

2016: Round 3, No. 77 overall: 205 points

2016: Round 4, No. 100 overall: 100 points

2017: Round 1 (valued as second round and No. 48 overall): 420 points

2018: Round 2 (valued as fourth round and No.  112 overall): 70 points

Totals points value: 2,195

In that calculation, the Eagles got more value.

But what if we don’t devalue picks in the future? Then the Eagles got 2,712 points and gave up 3,125 points, giving the Browns more value.

So, in this trade you can pretty much call it wash. If you devalue future picks by one round, the Eagles came ahead by 439 points. If you don’t devalue future picks by a one round per year, then the Browns and their analytical front office came ahead by 413 points. Considering that the Browns likely wouldn’t have been in contention for a title in 2016, future picks might be valued higher by them than other teams.

By the way, we also ran the numbers by devaluing future picks by a half a round per year (assuming a starting spot in the middle of the round) and Eagles won that scenario by 168 points (or a mid-third-round pick).

It’s pretty impressive how close the draft value chart comes in many of these trades.

 


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