Quarterback quest: The new No. 1?

So Blaine Gabbert is supposed to be the No. 1 quarterback in the draft? One of the most respected (by NFL teams) draft analysts has compiled charts and evidence to suggest another look that could catapult a dark-horse candidate into the limelight. He has the numbers to support his argument.

So you think you have it all figured – finally? Blaine Gabbert is the consensus No. 1 quarterback in the draft. The Kiper, Mayock and McShay draft analysts of the world all agree.

But before you lock it all in, there are some charts you might want to consider from another draft analyst who may not be known to many casual draft fans but is plenty prominent to NFL teams – you know, the people who actually make the decisions in the real draft, not the mock drafts. Dave-Te Thomas has been documenting and researching hundreds of draft prospects for NFL teams for decades.

With over 40 years of experience scouting for the NFL, Thomas handles a staff that evaluates and tests draft prospects, and each year his team prepares a draft packet distributed to all 32 teams by the NFL. Thomas holds two Masters degrees from the University of Colorado and serves as content editor for the NFL Draft Report.

His in-depth charts below, which compare five of the top quarterbacks in the draft, look at more than just their typical passing statistics. How are they converting third downs or even fourth downs, how many yards are they gaining per attempt and completion, and how many yards of total offensive are they responsible for per game?

Those are just some of the in-depth passing stats Thomas gets into, and it they don't all paint a No. 1 picture of Gabbert – in fact, far from it. Take another look and you might find that one of the least talk-about prospects, Colin Kaepernick, can easily hang with the big boys (first-round mentions) of the draft. Thomas compares Gabbert, Kaepernick, Cam Newton, Ryan Mallett and Jake Locker and the results might surprise you.

QB TALE OF THE TAPE
Player School Height Weight 40
Kaepernick Nevada 6:04.5 230 4.43
Gabbert Missouri 6:04.5 235 4.72
Locker Washington 6:02.5 230 4.53
Mallett Arkansas 6:06.2 238 4.86
Newton Auburn 6:05.4 248 4.52
Average   6:04.6 236 4.61

 

2010 PASSING STATS
Player GP ATT COMP PCT YARDS TD INT G/AVG  PE
Kaepernick 14 359 233 64.90 3022 21 08 215.86 150.46
Gabbert 13 475 301 63.37 3186 16 09 276.38 127.04
Locker 12 332 184 55.42 2265 17 09 188.75 124.20
Mallett 13 411 266 64.72 3869 32 12 297.62 163.65
Newton 14 280 185 66.07 2854 30 07 203.86 182.05
Average 13 371 234 62.95 3039 23 09 230.24 147.46

NOTES-GP indicates games played…ATT indicates pass attempts…COMP indicates pass completions… PCT indicates percentage of passes completed…G/AVG indicates average yards gained per game…PE indicates passing efficiency rating.


 

PASSING YARDAGE COMPARISONS I
Player YD/A RK YD/C RK TD/A RK TD/C RK
Kaepernick 08.42 3 12.97 3 05.85 3 09.01 4
Gabbert 06.71 5 10.58 5 03.37 5 05.32 5
Locker 06.82 4 12.31 4 05.12 4 09.23 3
Mallett 09.41 2 14.55 2 07.79 2 12.03 2
Newton 10.19 1 15.43 1 10.71 1 16.22 1
Average 08.18   13.00   6.25   9.92  

 

PASSING YARDAGE COMPARISONS II
Player PCT RK PE RK PTS TOT
Kaepernick 64.90 2 150.46 3 18 3
Gabbert 63.37 4 127.04 4 08 5
Locker 55.42 5 124.20 5 17 4
Mallett 64.72 3 163.65 2 23 2
Newton 66.07 1 182.05 1 30 1
Average 62.95   147.46   19.2  

NOTES-YD/A indicates yards gained per pass attempt…RK indicates rank in that category…YD/C indicates yards gained per completion…RK indicates rank in that category…TD/A indicates ratio of touchdown passes per pass attempt…TD/C indicates percentage of touchdown passes per pass completion…PCT indicates percentage of passes completed…PE indicates passing efficiency rating…PTS indicates points for each ranking category, players receive points based on their finish;-5 points for first, 4 for second, 3 for third, 2 for fourth, 1 for fifth…TOT indicates that quarterback's final ranking vs. the other four quarterbacks listed.



2010 DRIVE ENGINEERING COMPARISONS I
Player PLY T/OFF G/AVG RK P/AVG RK TDR RK
Kaepernick 532 4228 302.00 2 7.95 2 2.93 2
Gabbert 587 3418 262.92 4 5.82 5 1.62 5
Locker 446 2650 220.83 5 5.94 4 1.92 4
Mallett 455 3869 291.92 3 8.34 1 2.77 3
Newton 544 4327 309.07 1 7.95 2 3.57 1
Average 513 3698 280.18   7.21   2.59  

 

2010 DRIVE ENGINEERING COMPARISONS II
Player 3RD PCT RK 4TH PCT RK PTS TOT
Kaepernick 98/175 56.00 1 15/21 71.43 1 22 t1
Gabbert 39/115 33.91 4 06/12 50.00 2 10 4
Locker 27/091 29.67 5 06/15 40.00 5 07 5
Mallett 40/093 4301 3 04/09 44.44 4 16 3
Newton 40/080 50.00 2 02/04 50.00 2 22 t1
Average 49/111 44.04   07/12 54.10   15.4  
NOTES-PLY indicates amount of offensive plays the quarterback was involved in…T/OFF indicates total offensive yardage gained by the quarterback…G/AVG indicates average yards gain in total offense per game…RK indicates rank in that category…P/AVG indicates average yards gain in total offense per play… TDR indicates touchdowns responsible for (note-rank in this category is based on average of touchdowns responsible per game)...3RD indicates successful third-down plays engineered/total amount of third-down plays…PCT indicates percentage of successful third-down plays engineered…4TH indicates successful fourth-down plays engineered/total amount of third-down plays…PCT indicates percentage of successful fourth-down plays engineered…PTS indicates points for each ranking category, players receive points based on their finish;-5 points for first, 4 for second, 3 for third, 2 for fourth, 1 for fifth…TOT indicates that quarterback's final ranking vs. the other four quarterbacks listed…NOTE-all ranking are based on percentages per game.


Tim Yotter is the publisher of Viking Update. Follow Viking Update on Twitter and discuss this story on our subscriber message board.



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NOTES-GP indicates games played…ATT indicates pass attempts…COMP indicates pass completions… PCT indicates percentage of passes completed…G/AVG indicates average yards gained per game…PE indicates passing efficiency rating.

 

 

NOTES-YD/A indicates yards gained per pass attempt…RK indicates rank in that category…YD/C indicates yards gained per completion…RK indicates rank in that category…TD/A indicates ratio of touchdown passes per pass attempt…TD/C indicates percentage of touchdown passes per pass completion…PCT indicates percentage of passes completed…PE indicates passing efficiency rating…PTS indicates points for each ranking category, players receive points based on their finish;-5 points for first, 4 for second, 3 for third, 2 for fourth, 1 for fifth…TOT indicates that quarterback's final ranking vs. the other four quarterbacks listed.

 

NOTES-PLY indicates amount of offensive plays the quarterback was involved in…T/OFF indicates total offensive yardage gained by the quarterback…G/AVG indicates average yards gain in total offense per game…RK indicates rank in that category…P/AVG indicates average yards gain in total offense per play… TDR indicates touchdowns responsible for (note-rank in this category is based on average of touchdowns responsible per game)...3RD indicates successful third-down plays engineered/total amount of third-down plays…PCT indicates percentage of successful third-down plays engineered…4TH indicates successful fourth-down plays engineered/total amount of third-down plays…PCT indicates percentage of successful fourth-down plays engineered…PTS indicates points for each ranking category, players receive points based on their finish;-5 points for first, 4 for second, 3 for third, 2 for fourth, 1 for fifth…TOT indicates that quarterback's final ranking vs. the other four quarterbacks listed…NOTE-all ranking are based on percentages per game. 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