Recruiting to NFL draft: Do stars matter?

With National Signing Day for colleges earlier this week and the NFL draft less than three months away, we revisit a story by Scout.com's Scott Kennedy looking at last year's draft and how the first-round picks were rated coming out of high school.

Follow ScoutKennedy on Twitter

Originally published April 29, 2011.

Who's going to make it to the NFL?

Scout.com scours the nation for the best college prospects in the country. Most of the time, not all, but most of the time, a player who is expected to do well in the college ranks is also expected to move on to the NFL.

With the first round of the NFL Draft under our belts, and using the NFL Draft as a validation of the nation's most gifted players, let's take a look at how the first round broke down on Thursday. 

In a given year, 2,500 players will sign football scholarships to Division I programs. The star allocations for those players:

Star Players
5 50
4 250
3 1000
2 1200

The breakdown for the first round of the 2011 NFL Draft.

Star 1st Round Picks
5 5
4 13
3 9
2 5

Odds of becoming a 1st round pick in the 2011 NFL Draft

Star Odds of 1st Rnd
5 10-1
4 20-1
3 111-1
2 240-1

Two conclusions are obvious when seeing where the players were ranked before they arrived at their respective colleges.

First, it's an inexact science. Nearly as many 2-Star and 3-Star players went in the first round as 4-Star and 5-Star players. 

Second, the probability of becoming a first round pick is directly proportional to the ranking a player had in high school. Afterall, there are nearly 25 times more 2-Star players than 5-Star players.

Another lesson that all prospective student athletes should take into account. Even the 5-Star players only have a 10-1 chance of being a first round pick, so get your college degree.

*Scout's Allen Trieu compiled First Round Data:

Final 1st Round count:
5-Stars (5)
4-Stars (13)
3-Stars (9)
2-Stars (5)
NR (0)

*Note: Profiles link to high school profiles

1 (1) Carolina Panthers Cameron Newton QB Auburn
- #14 QB
Atlanta, GA (Westlake High School)

1 (2) DENVER BRONCOS Von Miller OLB Texas A&M
- #6 OLB
DeSoto, TX (DeSoto High School)

1 (3) BUFFALO BILLS Marcell Dareus DT Alabama
- #5 DT
Birmingham, AL (Huffman High School)

1 (4) CINCINNATI BENGALS A.J. Green WR Georgia
- #2 WR
Summerville, SC (Summerville High School)

1 (5) ARIZONA CARDINALS Patrick Peterson CB LSU
- #1 CB
Pompano Beach, FL (Ely High School)

1 (6) ATLANTA FALCONS Julio Jones WR Alabama
- #1 WR
Foley, AL (Foley High School)

1 (7) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS Aldon Smith DE Missouri
- #54 DE
Raytown, MO (Raytown High School)

1 (8) TENNESSEE TITANS Jake Locker QB Washington
- #7 QB
Ferndale, WA (Ferndale High School)

1 (9) DALLAS COWBOYS Tyron Smith OT USC
- #1 OT
Moreno Valley, CA (Rancho Verde High School)

1 (10) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS Blaine Gabbert QB Missouri
- #7 QB
Ballwin, MO (Parkway West High School)

1 (11) HOUSTON TEXANS J.J. Watt DE Wisconsin
- #NR DE
Pewaukee, WI (Pewaukee High School)

1 (12) MINNESOTA VIKINGS Christian Ponder QB Florida State
- #20 QB
Colleyville, TX (Colleyville Heritage HS)

1 (13) DETROIT LIONS Nick Fairley DT Auburn
- #27 OG
Mobile, AL (Williamson HS)

1 (14) ST. LOUIS RAMS Robert Quinn DE North Carolina
- #19 DE
North Charleston, SC (Fort Dorchester HS)

1 (15) MIAMI DOLPHINS Mike Pouncey C Florida
- #7 OG
Lakeland, FL (Lakeland HS)

1 (16) WASHINGTON REDSKINS Ryan Kerrigan DE Purdue
- #88 DE
Muncie, IN (Central HS)

1 (17) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS Nate Solder OT Colorado
- #NR OL
Buena Vista, CO (Buena Vista HS)

1 (18) SAN DIEGO CHARGERS Corey Liuget DT Illinois
- #8 DT
Hialeah, FL (Hialeah HS)

1 (19) NEW YORK GIANTS Prince Amukamara CB Nebraska
- #47 RB
Glendale, AZ (Apollo HS)

1 (20) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS Adrian Clayborn DE Iowa
- #18 DE
Webster Groves, MO (Webster Groves HS)

1 (21) CLEVELAND BROWNS Phil Taylor DT Baylor
- #29 DT
Brandywine, MD (Gwynn Park HS)

1 (22) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS Anthony Castonzo OT Boston College
- #NR OT
Fork Union, VA (Fork Union Military Academy)

1 (23) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES Danny Watkins OG Baylor
- #NR OT
Butte, MT (Butte JC)

1 (24) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS Cameron Jordan DE California
- #55 DE
Chandler, AZ (Chandler HS)

1 (25) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS James Carpenter OT Alabama
- #NR OT
Coffeyville, KS (Coffeyville JC)

1 (26) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS Jonathan Baldwin WR Pittsburgh
- #6 WR
Aliquippa, PA (Aliquippa HS)

1 (27) BALTIMORE RAVENS Jimmy Smith CB Colorado
- #53 S
Colton, CA (Colton HS)

1 (28) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS Mark Ingram RB Alabama
- #58 RB
Flint, MI (Southwestern Academy)

1 (29) CHICAGO BEARS Gabe Carimi OT Wisconsin
- #NR OL
Moana Grove, WI (Moana Grove HS)

1 (30) NEW YORK JETS Muhammad Wilkerson DT Temple
- #NR DE
Linden, NJ (Linden HS)

1 (31) PITTSBURGH STEELERS Cameron Heyward DT Ohio State
- #20 DT
Atlanta, GA (Whitefield HS)

1 (32) GREEN BAY PACKERS Derek Sherrod OT Mississippi State
- #11 OT
Caledonia, MS (Caledonia HS)




Viking Update Top Stories

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The breakdown for the first round of the 2011 NFL Draft.

Odds of becoming a 1st round pick in the 2011 NFL Draft

Two conclusions are obvious when seeing where the players were ranked before they arrived at their respective colleges. First, it's an inexact science. Nearly as many 2-Star and 3-Star players went in the first round as 4-Star and 5-Star players.  Second, the probability of becoming a first round pick is directly proportional to the ranking a player had in high school. Afterall, there are nearly 25 times more 2-Star players than 5-Star players. Another lesson that all prospective student athletes should take into account. Even the 5-Star players only have a 10-1 chance of being a first round pick, so get your college degree. *Scout's Allen Trieu compiled First Round Data:

Final 1st Round count: 5-Stars (5) 4-Stars (13) 3-Stars (9) 2-Stars (5) NR (0)

*Note: Profiles link to high school profiles

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