Prognosticator pegs Vikings' compensatories

An Internet blogger who has had great success projecting compensatory picks has the Vikings pegged for a sixth-round pick that could be upgraded to a fifth-rounder for the loss of Matt Birk last year. We should know this week how accurate the blogger is this year.

The Vikings currently have seven picks in the 2010 NFL Draft and vice president of player personnel Rick Spielman was looking forward to having his full complement to work with in one month. He is expected to find out if he has any more in the coming days, but one Internet blogger already has his prediction, and he has an impressive past predicting compensatory picks.

A blogger who goes by the name adamjt13 on is back at the predicting game and believes the Vikings will receive just one compensatory pick for the 2010 draft. Compensatory picks are awarded each year to NFL teams and are based on their losses and gains in the previous year's free agency. Last year, the Vikings lost center Matt Birk and safety Darren Sharper and added cornerback Karl Paymah, meaning their net loss of one will allow the NFL to only award one extra pick to the Vikings.

It would seem like the Vikings should be one of the more highly awarded teams, but adamjt13 has them pegged at just one sixth-round pick that he says could actually be a fifth-rounder. The NFL doesn't release its formula for determining compensatory picks, but adamjt13 appears to have a solid handle on how they are determined.

He says he has averaged 24.4 out of 32 correct over his last seven years projecting the picks, which he has done for nine consecutive seasons. Last year, he writes, he got 26 correct (determined by round) and was off on three more by just one round.

"Unless the NFL has unexpectedly changed the formula, I'm expecting similar results this year," he writes. "My recent projections also have been successful at projecting much of the exact order of the comp picks, regardless of round, and I'm hoping to have that trend continue as well."

Compensatory picks are based on playing time, salary and postseason awards, although adamjt13 says that last category doesn't carry as much weight as the first two factors. The Paymah signing ended up cancelling out the Sharper loss. Birk's salary with Baltimore apparently falls close to the cutoff point between the fifth and sixth rounds, according to adamjt13's projections.

Interestingly, if the Vikings had landed wide receiver T.J. Houshamdzadeh last year in free agency, they probably wouldn't be receiving any compensatory picks this year because his signing would have cancelled out the Birk loss.

Adamtj13 projects three third-round compensatory picks being awarded and none in the fourth round. He has only three more being awarded in the fifth round, but Birk is ranked the highest of all six sixth-round picks (meaning that could easily be upgraded to a fifth-round pick). He projects 15 more compensatory picks in the seventh round, along with five additional picks being awarded at the end of the seventh round to fill out the 32 picks that are awarded every year.

Will adamjt13 proved prophetic (or at least extremely good at cracking the NFL's secret code) again in 2010? We should know more in the next few days.

Tim Yotter is the publisher of Viking Update. Follow Viking Update on Twitter and discuss this topic on our message boards. To become a subscriber to the Viking Update web site or magazine, click here.

Viking Update Top Stories