LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The D-Backs are World Series contenders and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of winning it all. On 3/31 they had a 0.1% chance before increasing to 3.2% on 5/6. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 1.2%. They will be fighting for a playoff spot (currently projected to finish #8 in the conference) and have a 32% chance of making the playoffs. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the NL at 2.4% (40/1 odds) and a 1.2% chance of winning it all (80/1). In simulations they make the World Series 2.8% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 49% #16 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 53% #2 Toughest

D-Backs' Season Forecast Changes

Sportsline not only has a pick on every game and line our Experts provide winning Daily Fantasy Optimal Lineups every day.

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B

At 49-48 the D-Backs are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 46.6 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ as a slight favorite, or by 5+ as a favorite then they have 39 good wins vs 18 bad losses. They have won 54% of their road games and were expected to win 45%. At home they have a 47% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 52%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (8-7, 53%) is better than their expected 48% win percentage. The D-Backs should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 52.1% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#13 in the league). They have moved up from #18 in the league back on 3/27.

Their record should be better. Their average run differential is +0.7 which ranks #3 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #8. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #1 ranked team in run differential in road games, vs #6 in home games. Their average run differential in their past 9 games is +3 which ranks them #1 over this stretch, slightly better than overall.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The D-Backs next 10 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 3 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game
JUL 19
CLOSE GAME
42% MIL
--
JUL 20
LIKELY WIN
63% MIL
--
JUL 21
CLOSE GAME
56% MIL
--
JUL 22
LIKELY WIN
66% BAL
--
JUL 23
LIKELY WIN
69% BAL
--
JUL 24
CLOSE GAME
58% BAL
--
JUL 26
CLOSE GAME
52% @MIA
1979 miles
JUL 27
CLOSE GAME
45% @MIA
-- miles
JUL 28
LIKELY WIN
61% @MIA
-- miles
JUL 29
CLOSE GAME
55% @MIA
-- miles

The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 6-4 (25% chance). Their chances of winning 8 or more are 10.9%. At #8 in the league, they are behind the Phillies by one point. With a +1.63 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of improving their league seed. They are ahead of the Giants by one point. With a +0.99 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the D-Backs are the 7th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the D-Backs are playing 13 games, traveling 22270 miles crossing 33 time zones. They rank #4 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the Arizona Diamondbacks' next game. They are +111 underdogs and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.