LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The D-Backs are contenders to win the NL and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had a 1% chance of making the World Series. On 3/29 they had a 0.4% chance before increasing to 7.8% on 5/6. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 2.3%. They have a 1.5% chance of winning their division. They will be fighting for a playoff spot (currently projected to finish #8 in the conference) and have a 34% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 6.2% chance of winning the NL (15/1) and a 3.2% chance of winning it all (30/1). In simulations they win the World Series 0.7% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 49% #11 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 54% #2 Toughest

D-Backs' Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-

At 26-25 the D-Backs are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 24.4 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ as a slight favorite, or by 5+ as a favorite then they have 19 good wins vs 8 bad losses. They have been better than expected on the road. Their 15-12- road record is +13% better than their expected win percentage. Over the past 3 weeks they have played poorly going 8-12, 40%. The D-Backs should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 52.1% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#11 in the league). They have moved up from #18 in the league back on 3/27.

Their record should be better. Their average run differential is +0.76 which ranks #3 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #8. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #2 ranked team in run differential in road games, vs #5 in home games. Their average run differential in their past 12 games is +1.83 which ranks them #2 over this stretch, slightly better than overall.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The D-Backs next 10 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog. The rest of the games are toss ups.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game
MAY 25
LIKELY WIN
60% @SF
653 miles
MAY 26
LIKELY WIN
68% @SF
-- miles
MAY 27
CLOSE GAME
57% @COL
947 miles
MAY 28
CLOSE GAME
48% @COL
-- miles
MAY 29
CLOSE GAME
50% @COL
-- miles
MAY 30
LIKELY LOSS
39% @COL
-- miles
MAY 31
LIKELY WIN
61% NYM
587 miles
JUN 1
CLOSE GAME
56% NYM
--
JUN 2
LIKELY WIN
60% NYM
--
JUN 3
CLOSE GAME
41% LAD
--

The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 6-4 (24% chance). Their chances of winning 8 or more are 9.1%. At #8 in the league, they are behind the Pirates by half a point. With a +1.88 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of improving their league seed. They are ahead of the Cardinals by half a point. With a +1.29 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the D-Backs are the 11th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the D-Backs are playing 14 games, traveling 10431 miles crossing 14 time zones. They rank #15 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the Arizona Diamondbacks' next game. They are +107 underdogs and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.