|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP
The D-Backs are World Series contenders and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of winning it all. On 3/31 they had a 0.1% chance before increasing to 3.2% on 5/6. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 1.2%. They will be fighting for a playoff spot (currently projected to finish #8 in the conference) and have a 32% chance of making the playoffs. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the NL at 2.4% (40/1 odds) and a 1.2% chance of winning it all (80/1). In simulations they make the World Series 2.8% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier
D-Backs' Season Forecast Changes
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B
At 49-48 the D-Backs are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 46.6 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ as a slight favorite, or by 5+ as a favorite then they have 39 good wins vs 18 bad losses. They have won 54% of their road games and were expected to win 45%. At home they have a 47% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 52%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (8-7, 53%) is better than their expected 48% win percentage. The D-Backs should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 52.1% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#13 in the league). They have moved up from #18 in the league back on 3/27.
Their record should be better. Their average run differential is +0.7 which ranks #3 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #8. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #1 ranked team in run differential in road games, vs #6 in home games. Their average run differential in their past 9 games is +3 which ranks them #1 over this stretch, slightly better than overall.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The D-Backs next 10 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 3 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 6-4 (25% chance). Their chances of winning 8 or more are 10.9%. At #8 in the league, they are behind the Phillies by one point. With a +1.63 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of improving their league seed. They are ahead of the Giants by one point. With a +0.99 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.
The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the D-Backs are the 7th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the D-Backs are playing 13 games, traveling 22270 miles crossing 33 time zones. They rank #4 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Arizona Diamondbacks' next game. They are +111 underdogs and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|35||Andriese, Matt||RP||6-2||225||08/28/1989||5||No College|
|25||Bradley, Archie||RP||6-4||225||08/10/1992||5||No College|
|40||Chafin, Andrew||RP||6-2||225||06/17/1990||6||Kent State|
|45||Clarke, Taylor||SP||6-4||200||05/13/1993||1||No College|
|1||Dyson, Jarrod||CF||5-10||165||08/15/1984||10||No College|
|5||Escobar, Eduardo||3B||5-10||185||01/05/1989||9||No College|
|41||Flores, Wilmer||2B||6-3||205||08/06/1991||7||No College|
|21||Greinke, Zack||SP||6-2||200||10/21/1983||16||No College|
|66||Hirano, Yoshihisa||RP||6-1||185||03/08/1984||2||No College|
|56||Holland, Greg||RP||5-10||215||11/20/1985||9||No College|
|10||Jones, Adam||RF||6-2||215||08/01/1985||14||No College|
|18||Kelly, Carson||C||6-2||220||07/14/1994||4||No College|
|29||Kelly, Merrill||SP||6-2||190||10/14/1988||1||Arizona State|
|2||Leyba, Domingo||2B||5-11||160||09/11/1995||1||No College|
|16||Locastro, Tim||LF||6-1||200||07/14/1992||3||No College|
|50||Lopez, Yoan||RP||6-3||185||01/02/1993||2||No College|
|4||Marte, Ketel||CF||6-1||165||10/12/1993||5||No College|
|30||McFarland, T.J.||RP||6-3||220||06/08/1989||7||No College|
|38||Ray, Robbie||SP||6-2||195||10/01/1991||6||No College|
|19||Swihart, Blake||RF||6-1||200||04/03/1992||5||No College|
|15||Vargas, Ildemaro||2B||6-0||170||07/16/1991||3||No College|
|53||Walker, Christian||1B||6-0||220||03/28/1991||5||South Carolina|