SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A

At 29-23 the Braves are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 26.9 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ as a slight favorite, or by 5+ as a favorite then they have 15 good wins vs 13 bad losses. They have been better than expected on the road. Their 15-11- road record is +10% better than their expected win percentage. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 14-7 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 10.6 wins. The Braves should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 51.7% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#12 in the league). They have moved up from #15 in the league back on 5/15.

Their record is better than it should be. Their average run differential is +0.37 which ranks #6 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #4. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #4 ranked team in run differential in road games, vs #9 in home games. Based on run differential, they are trending up. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is +1.69 (#3 over this stretch).

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

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NEXT 8 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY

The forecast for their next 8 games is a mixed bag. They have 5 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game
MAY 25
CLOSE GAME
59% @STL
468 miles
MAY 26
CLOSE GAME
48% @STL
-- miles
MAY 28
CLOSE GAME
46% WAS
--
MAY 29
LIKELY WIN
67% WAS
--
MAY 31
LIKELY WIN
78% DET
--
JUN 1
LIKELY WIN
84% DET
--
JUN 2
LIKELY WIN
71% DET
--
JUN 4
CLOSE GAME
48% @PIT
523 miles
JUN 5
LIKELY WIN
64% @PIT
-- miles
JUN 6
CLOSE GAME
59% @PIT
-- miles

The most likely scenario over the next 8 games is a record of 5-3 (29% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 13%. Their chances of winning their next 8 are 2.3%. At #5 in the league, they are fighting with the Brewers for positioning. With a -0.45 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 8 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are ahead of the Padres by 1.5 points. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Padres. Their projected wins (4.99) over the next 8 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Braves are the 3rd most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Braves are playing 12 games, traveling 5229 miles crossing 3 time zones. They rank #10 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the Atlanta Braves' next game. They are -115 favorites and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG

The Braves are World Series contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 1.2% chance of winning it all. On 4/11 they had a 1.9% chance before dropping to 0.3% on 5/15. From the start of the season to now their chances are up to 1.3%. Before the start of their 3 game winning streak they were at 0.6%. They have a 41.8% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #5 in the conference and have a 63% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have an 11.1% chance of winning the NL (8/1) and a 5.9% chance of winning it all (16/1). In simulations they make the World Series 4.8% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 48% #7 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 49% #15 Easiest

Braves' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.