|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
NEXT 9 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY
The forecast for their next 9 games is a mixed bag. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 4 games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 9 games is a record of 5-4 (27% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 12%. At #2 in the league, they are behind the Dodgers by 5.5 points. With a -1.06 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 9 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are ahead of the Cubs by 5 points. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Cubs. Their projected wins (4.76) over the next 9 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term.
The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Braves are the 3rd most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Braves are playing 13 games, traveling 6705 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #12 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Atlanta Braves' next game. They are +136 underdogs and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B
At 58-40 the Braves are greatly exceeding their money line projected win total of 52 wins. In the process of beating expectations they have had 31 impressive wins where they were given
Their record is better than it should be. Their average run differential is +0.47 which ranks #4 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #2. They are the #6 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #4 ranked team among home teams. They are trending down. Their average run differential in their past 10 games is -1.2 (#12 over this stretch).
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG
The Braves are World Series contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 1.2% chance of winning it all. On 5/15 they had a 0.3% chance before increasing to 6.9% on 7/16. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 5.4%. Before the start of their 3 game losing streak they were at 6.5%. They have a 60.4% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #2 in the conference and have a 92% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 16.7% chance of winning the NL (5/1) and a 7.7% chance of winning it all (12/1). In simulations they make the World Series 12.7% of the time.
Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Easy
Braves' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|13||Acuna, Ronald||CF||6-0||180||12/18/1997||2||No College|
|1||Albies, Ozzie||2B||5-8||165||01/07/1997||3||No College|
|50||Blevins, Jerry||RP||6-6||190||09/06/1983||13||No College|
|17||Camargo, Johan||3B||6-0||195||12/13/1993||3||No College|
|8||Culberson, Charlie||LF||6-1||200||04/10/1989||7||No College|
|25||Flowers, Tyler||C||6-4||260||01/24/1986||11||No College|
|5||Freeman, Freddie||1B||6-5||220||09/12/1989||10||No College|
|11||Inciarte, Ender||CF||5-11||190||10/29/1990||6||No College|
|77||Jackson, Luke||RP||6-2||210||08/24/1991||5||No College|
|14||Joyce, Matt||RF||6-2||200||08/03/1984||12||No College|
|22||Markakis, Nick||RF||6-1||210||11/17/1983||14||No College|
|16||McCann, Brian||C||6-3||215||02/20/1984||15||No College|
|33||Minter, A.J.||RP||6-0||215||09/02/1993||3||Texas A&M|
|15||Newcomb, Sean||RP||6-5||255||06/12/1993||3||No College|
|52||Parsons, Wes||RP||6-5||190||09/06/1992||2||No College|
|27||Riley, Austin||LF||6-3||240||04/02/1997||1||No College|
|61||Sobotka, Chad||RP||6-7||225||07/10/1993||2||No College|
|40||Soroka, Michael||SP||6-4||195||No College|
|38||Swarzak, Anthony||RP||6-4||215||09/10/1985||10||No College|
|49||Teheran, Julio||SP||6-2||205||01/27/1991||9||No College|
|32||Tomlin, Josh||RP||6-1||190||10/19/1984||10||Texas Tech|
|62||Toussaint, Touki||RP||6-3||215||06/20/1996||2||No College|