LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

Before the season, the Orioles were projected for 55.7 points (average per simulation) and things are looking positive. On 3/24 they had a 52.5% chance before increasing to 60.9% on 4/16. From the start of the season to now their chances are up to 59.7%.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 51% #5 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 50% #16 Easiest

Orioles' Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-

At 10-16 the Orioles are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 9.2 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ as a slight favorite, or by 5+ as a favorite then they have 9 good wins vs 7 bad losses. They have been better than expected on the road. Their 7-6- road record is +23% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (6-15, 29%) is under their expected 37% win percentage. In simulations where the Orioles played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 36.3% of the time (#29 in the league). Their peak sim% was 37.6% back on 4/15.

Their record is better than it should be. Their average run differential is -1.81 which ranks #15 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #13. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #9 ranked team in run differential in road games, vs #15 in home games. Their average run differential in their past 14 games is -1.29 which ranks them #14 over this stretch, slightly better than overall.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 9 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY

The Orioles next 9 game forecast looks rough, to say the least. They are the clear underdog in 10 out of the 9 games.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game
APR 26
LIKELY LOSS
35% @MIN
939 miles
APR 27
LIKELY LOSS
32% @MIN
-- miles
APR 28
LIKELY LOSS
33% @MIN
-- miles
APR 29
CLOSE GAME
43% @CHW
358 miles
APR 30
CLOSE GAME
41% @CHW
-- miles
MAY 1
CLOSE GAME
45% @CHW
-- miles
MAY 3
LIKELY LOSS
34% TB
--
MAY 4
LIKELY LOSS
38% TB
--
MAY 5
LIKELY LOSS
31% TB
--
MAY 6
LIKELY LOSS
34% BOS
--

The most likely scenario over the next 9 games is a record of 3-6 (27% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 20%. At #13 in the league, they are behind the White Sox by half a point. With a -1.58 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 9 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are ahead of the Angels by half a point. With a -1.56 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 9 games they may find the gap between them closing.

The Baltimore Orioles' next game is on April 26. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.