LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN

Before the season, the Orioles were projected for 55.7 points (average per simulation) but it does not look like they are going to reach that. On 4/16 they had a 60.9% chance before dropping to 49.5% on 6/24. From the start of the season to now their projected point total is down to 49.5.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 48% #10 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 54% #1 Toughest

Orioles' Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: F

Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 22-57 Orioles 'should have' 29 wins. They have 27 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 21 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have come up especially short at home. Their 9-29- home record is -16% lower than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (4-16, 20%) is under their expected 36% win percentage. In simulations where the Orioles played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 31.5% of the time (#29 in the league). In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #30 winning 34.3%.

Their average run differential is -2.35 which ranks #15 in the AL, which is the same as how they rank in win percentage. They are the #15 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats). This is the same ranking they have among home teams. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is -4.92.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 9 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY

The forecast for their next 9 games is not good. They have 2 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 47% chance of winning, and 8 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game
JUN 26
CLOSE GAME
42% SD
--
JUN 28
LIKELY LOSS
33% CLE
--
JUN 29
LIKELY LOSS
25% CLE
--
JUN 30
CLOSE GAME
43% CLE
--
JUL 1
LIKELY LOSS
23% @TB
869 miles
JUL 2
LIKELY LOSS
29% @TB
-- miles
JUL 3
LIKELY LOSS
29% @TB
-- miles
JUL 5
LIKELY LOSS
37% @TOR
334 miles
JUL 6
CLOSE GAME
47% @TOR
-- miles
JUL 7
CLOSE GAME
53% @TOR
-- miles

The most likely scenario over the next 9 games is a record of 3-6 (28% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 15.7%. At #15 in the league, they are behind the Tigers by 6 points. Their projected wins (3.11) over the next 9 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Orioles are the 3rd most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Orioles are playing 10 games, traveling 7218 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #4 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the Baltimore Orioles' next game. They are +118 underdogs and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.