|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN
The Red Sox are World Series contenders but their chances are declining. In our pre-season forecast they had a 10.6% chance of winning it all. On 3/27 they had an 11.1% chance before dropping to 1.6% on 4/24. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 1.7%. They have a 5.6% chance of winning their division. The playoffs are not likely with their 32.3% chance and a projected #11 finish in the conference. Based on the odds, they have a 16.7% chance of winning the AL (5/1) and a 9.1% chance of winning it all (10/1). In simulations they make the World Series 3.5% of the time.
Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Hard
Red Sox's Season Forecast Changes
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: F
Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 10-15 Red Sox 'should have' 15 wins. They have 14 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 3 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have been below expectations on the road and at home. Their 6-10- road record is -17% lower than expected. Their 4-5- home record is -24% lower. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (9-10, 47%) is under their expected 59% win percentage. The Red Sox should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 51.4% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#17 in the league). Their peak rank was #4 in the league back on 3/27.
Their record is better than it should be. Their average run differential is -1.44 which ranks #14 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #11. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #12 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #15 in road games. Based on run differential, they are trending up. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is -0.62 (#11 over this stretch).
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The forecast for their next 10 games is generally good. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 3 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog. The rest of the games are toss ups.
The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 6-4 (26% chance). Their chances of winning 8 or more are 12.5%. At #11 in the league, they are behind the Blue Jays by one point. With a +2.44 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of improving their league seed. They are in a battle with White Sox in the league. With a +0.87 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Boston Red Sox's next game. They are -191 favorites and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|32||Barnes, Matt||RP||6-4||213||06/17/1990||6||No College|
|16||Benintendi, Andrew||LF||5-9||187||07/06/1994||4||No College|
|50||Betts, Mookie||RF||5-9||177||10/07/1992||6||No College|
|2||Bogaerts, Xander||SS||6-2||215||10/01/1992||7||No College|
|19||Bradley, Jackie||CF||5-10||198||04/19/1990||7||No College|
|70||Brasier, Ryan||RP||6-0||225||08/26/1987||3||No College|
|54||Brewer, Colten||RP||6-4||230||10/29/1992||2||No College|
|23||Chavis, Michael||2B||5-10||216||08/11/1995||1||No College|
|11||Devers, Rafael||3B||6-0||237||10/24/1996||3||No College|
|37||Hembree, Heath||RP||6-4||223||01/13/1989||7||No College|
|65||Lakins, Travis||RP||6-4||180||06/29/1994||0||No College|
|3||Leon, Sandy||C||5-10||250||03/13/1989||8||No College|
|5||Lin, Tzu-Wei||2B||5-9||183||02/15/1994||3||No College|
|28||Martinez, J.D.||DH||6-3||220||08/21/1987||9||No College|
|18||Moreland, Mitch||1B||6-3||248||09/06/1985||10||No College|
|25||Pearce, Steve||1B||5-11||200||04/13/1983||13||No College|
|22||Porcello, Rick||SP||6-5||202||12/27/1988||11||No College|
|10||Price, David||SP||6-5||210||08/26/1985||12||No College|
|57||Rodriguez, Eduardo||SP||6-2||205||04/07/1993||5||No College|
|41||Sale, Chris||SP||6-6||181||03/30/1989||10||No College|
|47||Thornburg, Tyler||RP||5-11||191||09/29/1988||7||No College|
|7||Vazquez, Christian||C||5-9||201||08/21/1990||5||No College|
|76||Velazquez, Hector||RP||6-0||224||11/26/1988||3||No College|
|64||Walden, Marcus||RP||6-0||195||09/13/1988||2||No College|
|44||Workman, Brandon||RP||6-5||250||08/13/1988||5||No College|