LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN

The Red Sox are World Series contenders but their chances are declining. In our pre-season forecast they had a 10.6% chance of winning it all. On 3/27 they had an 11.1% chance before dropping to 1.6% on 4/24. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 1.7%. They have a 5.6% chance of winning their division. The playoffs are not likely with their 32.3% chance and a projected #11 finish in the conference. Based on the odds, they have a 16.7% chance of winning the AL (5/1) and a 9.1% chance of winning it all (10/1). In simulations they make the World Series 3.5% of the time.

Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Hard

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 50% #14 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 51% #14 Toughest

Red Sox's Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: F

Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 10-15 Red Sox 'should have' 15 wins. They have 14 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 3 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have been below expectations on the road and at home. Their 6-10- road record is -17% lower than expected. Their 4-5- home record is -24% lower. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (9-10, 47%) is under their expected 59% win percentage. The Red Sox should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 51.4% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#17 in the league). Their peak rank was #4 in the league back on 3/27.

Their record is better than it should be. Their average run differential is -1.44 which ranks #14 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #11. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #12 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #15 in road games. Based on run differential, they are trending up. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is -0.62 (#11 over this stretch).

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The forecast for their next 10 games is generally good. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 3 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog. The rest of the games are toss ups.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game
APR 25
LIKELY WIN
72% DET
--
APR 26
CLOSE GAME
56% TB
--
APR 27
CLOSE GAME
45% TB
--
APR 28
CLOSE GAME
55% TB
--
APR 29
CLOSE GAME
53% OAK
--
APR 30
CLOSE GAME
50% OAK
--
MAY 1
CLOSE GAME
52% OAK
--
MAY 2
LIKELY WIN
60% @CHW
848 miles
MAY 3
LIKELY WIN
65% @CHW
-- miles
MAY 4
LIKELY WIN
62% @CHW
-- miles

The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 6-4 (26% chance). Their chances of winning 8 or more are 12.5%. At #11 in the league, they are behind the Blue Jays by one point. With a +2.44 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of improving their league seed. They are in a battle with White Sox in the league. With a +0.87 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.

Sportsline has a free pick on the Boston Red Sox's next game. They are -191 favorites and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.