Boston
Red Sox
Stadium Fenway Park
44-38 Overall | AL EAST 3rd
TEAM STATSAVGRHRERA
Red Sox.2644421144.25
Schedule
Regular season
Tue  6/18
@
Twins
L / 173-4
Wed  6/19
@
Twins
W9-4
Fri  6/21
vs
Blue Jays
W / 107-5
Sat  6/22
vs
Blue Jays
L7-8
Sun  6/23
vs
Blue Jays
L1-6
Mon  6/24
vs
White Sox
W6-5
Tue  6/25
vs
White Sox
W6-3
Wed  6/26
vs
White Sox
Gametracker
Sat  6/29
vs
Yankees
FOX1:10pm
Sun  6/30
vs
Yankees
ESPN10:10am
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN

The Red Sox are World Series contenders but their chances are declining. In our pre-season forecast they had a 10.6% chance of winning it all. On 3/27 they had an 11.1% chance before dropping to 1.5% on 4/29. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 4.7%. They have an 8.5% chance of winning their division. They will be fighting for a playoff spot (currently projected to finish #7 in the conference) and have a 58% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have an 11.1% chance of winning the AL (8/1) and a 5.9% chance of winning it all (16/1). In simulations they make the World Series 9% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 49% #16 Easiest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 47% #5 Easiest

Red Sox's Season Forecast Changes

Sportsline not only has a pick on every game and line our Experts provide winning Daily Fantasy Optimal Lineups every day.

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 44-37 Red Sox 'should have' 48 wins. They have 32 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 19 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have come up especially short at home. Their 20-19- home record is -11% lower than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (14-8, 64%) is better than their expected 60% win percentage. The Red Sox are a good team (in simulations) and won 58.1% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#4 in the league). They have moved up from #17 in the league back on 4/24.

Their record should be better. Their average run differential is +0.68 which ranks #5 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #7. They are the #4 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #6 ranked team among home teams. Based on run differential, they are trending up. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is +2 (#2 over this stretch).

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 8 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The forecast for their next 8 games is generally good. They have 7 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and no games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game

JUN 26
LIKELY WIN
77% CHW
--
JUN 29
CLOSE GAME
48% NYY
--
JUN 30
CLOSE GAME
51% NYY
--
JUL 2
LIKELY WIN
71% @TOR
429 miles
JUL 3
LIKELY WIN
62% @TOR
-- miles
JUL 4
LIKELY WIN
61% @TOR
-- miles
JUL 5
LIKELY WIN
68% @DET
206 miles
JUL 6
LIKELY WIN
68% @DET
-- miles
JUL 7
LIKELY WIN
64% @DET
-- miles
JUL 12
CLOSE GAME
51% LAD
--

The most likely scenario over the next 8 games is a record of 5-3 (29% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 13.7%. Their chances of winning their next 8 are 2.2%. At #7 in the league, they are fighting with the Rangers for positioning. Their projected wins (5.06) over the next 8 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. They are ahead of the Athletics by one point. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Athletics. There is only a -0.46 advantage in projected wins over their next 8 games.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Red Sox are the 10th least fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Red Sox are playing 9 games, traveling 6240 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #21 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the Boston Red Sox's next game. They are -364 favorites and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
32 Barnes, Matt RP6-421306/17/19906Connecticut
16 Benintendi, Andrew LF5-918707/06/19944Arkansas
50 Betts, Mookie RF5-917710/07/19926No College
2 Bogaerts, Xander SS6-221510/01/19927No College
19 Bradley, Jackie CF5-1019804/19/19907South Carolina
70 Brasier, Ryan RP6-022508/26/19873No College
54 Brewer, Colten RP6-423010/29/19922No College
23 Chavis, Michael 2B5-1021608/11/19951No College
11 Devers, Rafael 3B6-023710/24/19963No College
40 Hernandez, Marco 2B6-019509/06/19923No College
12 Holt, Brock 2B5-1019306/11/19888Rice
61 Johnson, Brian RP6-324912/07/19904Florida
3 Leon, Sandy C5-1025003/13/19898No College
28 Martinez, J.D. DH6-322008/21/19879No College
36 Nunez, Eduardo 2B6-019506/15/198710No College
22 Porcello, Rick SP6-520212/27/198811No College
10 Price, David SP6-521008/26/198512Vanderbilt
57 Rodriguez, Eduardo SP6-220504/07/19935No College
41 Sale, Chris SP6-618103/30/198910No College
73 Shawaryn, Mike RP6-225609/17/19941Maryland
72 Taylor, Josh RP6-522503/02/19931No College
7 Vazquez, Christian C5-920108/21/19905No College
64 Walden, Marcus RP6-019509/13/19882No College
44 Workman, Brandon RP6-525008/13/19885Texas
35 Wright, Steven RP6-221608/30/19847Hawaii