Boston
Red Sox
Stadium Fenway Park
10-15 Overall | AL EAST 4th
TEAM STATSAVGRHRERA
Red Sox.236110275.54
Schedule
Regular season
Mon  4/22
vs
Tigers
POSTPONED
Tue  4/23
vs
Tigers
L4-7
Tue  4/23
vs
Tigers
L2-4
Wed  4/24
vs
Tigers
W11-4
Thu  4/25
vs
Tigers
7:10pm
Fri  4/26
vs
Rays
7:10pm
Sat  4/27
vs
Rays
4:05pm
Sun  4/28
vs
Rays
1:05pm
Mon  4/29
vs
Athletics
ESPN7:10pm
Tue  4/30
vs
Athletics
7:10pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN

The Red Sox are World Series contenders but their chances are declining. In our pre-season forecast they had a 10.6% chance of winning it all. On 3/27 they had an 11.1% chance before dropping to 1.6% on 4/24. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 1.7%. They have a 5.6% chance of winning their division. The playoffs are not likely with their 32.3% chance and a projected #11 finish in the conference. Based on the odds, they have a 16.7% chance of winning the AL (5/1) and a 9.1% chance of winning it all (10/1). In simulations they make the World Series 3.5% of the time.

Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Hard

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 50% #14 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 51% #14 Toughest

Red Sox's Season Forecast Changes

Sportsline not only has a pick on every game and line our Experts provide winning Daily Fantasy Optimal Lineups every day.

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: F

Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 10-15 Red Sox 'should have' 15 wins. They have 14 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 3 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have been below expectations on the road and at home. Their 6-10- road record is -17% lower than expected. Their 4-5- home record is -24% lower. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (9-10, 47%) is under their expected 59% win percentage. The Red Sox should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 51.4% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#17 in the league). Their peak rank was #4 in the league back on 3/27.

Their record is better than it should be. Their average run differential is -1.44 which ranks #14 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #11. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #12 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #15 in road games. Based on run differential, they are trending up. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is -0.62 (#11 over this stretch).

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The forecast for their next 10 games is generally good. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 3 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog. The rest of the games are toss ups.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game

APR 25
LIKELY WIN
72% DET
--
APR 26
CLOSE GAME
56% TB
--
APR 27
CLOSE GAME
45% TB
--
APR 28
CLOSE GAME
55% TB
--
APR 29
CLOSE GAME
53% OAK
--
APR 30
CLOSE GAME
50% OAK
--
MAY 1
CLOSE GAME
52% OAK
--
MAY 2
LIKELY WIN
60% @CHW
848 miles
MAY 3
LIKELY WIN
65% @CHW
-- miles
MAY 4
LIKELY WIN
62% @CHW
-- miles

The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 6-4 (26% chance). Their chances of winning 8 or more are 12.5%. At #11 in the league, they are behind the Blue Jays by one point. With a +2.44 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of improving their league seed. They are in a battle with White Sox in the league. With a +0.87 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.

Sportsline has a free pick on the Boston Red Sox's next game. They are -191 favorites and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
32 Barnes, Matt RP6-421306/17/19906No College
16 Benintendi, Andrew LF5-918707/06/19944No College
50 Betts, Mookie RF5-917710/07/19926No College
2 Bogaerts, Xander SS6-221510/01/19927No College
19 Bradley, Jackie CF5-1019804/19/19907No College
70 Brasier, Ryan RP6-022508/26/19873No College
54 Brewer, Colten RP6-423010/29/19922No College
23 Chavis, Michael 2B5-1021608/11/19951No College
11 Devers, Rafael 3B6-023710/24/19963No College
37 Hembree, Heath RP6-422301/13/19897No College
65 Lakins, Travis RP6-418006/29/19940No College
3 Leon, Sandy C5-1025003/13/19898No College
5 Lin, Tzu-Wei 2B5-918302/15/19943No College
28 Martinez, J.D. DH6-322008/21/19879No College
18 Moreland, Mitch 1B6-324809/06/198510No College
25 Pearce, Steve 1B5-1120004/13/198313No College
22 Porcello, Rick SP6-520212/27/198811No College
10 Price, David SP6-521008/26/198512No College
57 Rodriguez, Eduardo SP6-220504/07/19935No College
41 Sale, Chris SP6-618103/30/198910No College
47 Thornburg, Tyler RP5-1119109/29/19887No College
7 Vazquez, Christian C5-920108/21/19905No College
76 Velazquez, Hector RP6-022411/26/19883No College
64 Walden, Marcus RP6-019509/13/19882No College
44 Workman, Brandon RP6-525008/13/19885No College