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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND 2019 OUTLOOK

Their 108 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +12.7 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. Their 70.4% home win percentage was better than expected (62.5%). They won 63% on the road which was better than expected (55.1%). In simulations for next season they are averaging 100.2 wins and are projected to finish second in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #3 ranked Astros who are projected for 99.2 wins. They are a contender with a 10.1% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 19.5% chance of reaching the Series. They are not a good futures betting value with championship odds of 7/1, 12.5% and odds to win the AL at 13/4, 23.5%. Even though they are projected to finish 2nd the Yankees in the American League, they are the better value to win the AL East with a 43.6% chance at 7/5(41.7%) odds.

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TEAM STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record is slightly better than it should be. Since last season their average run differential is +1.49 which ranks #2 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #1. They are the #2 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #1 ranked team among home teams.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

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TEAM STATS AND BETTING RESULT GAMELOG

Below is a betting recap of all 162 regular games. Anyone who backed the Red Sox in all of their games would have earned a +809 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the run line, they have delivered a +1632 profit risking 100 units on each game (92-70 PL). They are profitable against the run line at home and on the road.