|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
NEXT 9 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY
The forecast for their next 9 games is a mixed bag. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 5 games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 9 games is a record of 5-4 (26% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 12%. At #3 in the league, they are behind the Braves by 5 points. Their projected wins (4.76) over the next 9 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. They are ahead of the Nationals by half a point. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Nationals. There is only a -0.39 advantage in projected wins over their next 9 games.
The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Cubs are just the 27th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Cubs are playing 13 games, traveling 12644 miles crossing 12 time zones. They rank #16 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Chicago Cubs' next game. They are -156 favorites and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-
At 52-44 the Cubs are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 51.5 wins. They have 24 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 22 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have won 40% of their road games and were expected to win 49%. At home they have a 67% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 58%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (9-8, 53%) is under their expected 57% win percentage. The Cubs are a good team (in simulations) and won 55.4% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#10 in the league). Their peak rank was #3 in the league back on 5/6.
Their record should be slightly better. Their average run differential is +0.71 which ranks #2 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #3. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #2 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #7 in road games. Their average run differential in their past 8 games is +1.75 which ranks them #4 over this stretch, slightly worse than overall.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG
The Cubs are World Series contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 7.8% chance of winning it all. On 4/15 they had a 3.1% chance before increasing to 16% on 5/6. Their current chances are at 7.7%. They have a 57.5% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #3 in the conference and have a 75% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 16.7% chance of winning the NL (5/1) and a 7.7% chance of winning it all (12/1). In simulations they make the World Series 16.8% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Tougher
Cubs' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|5||Almora, Albert||CF||6-2||190||04/16/1994||4||No College|
|9||Baez, Javier||SS||6-0||190||12/01/1992||6||No College|
|13||Bote, David||3B||6-1||210||04/07/1993||2||No College|
|29||Brach, Brad||RP||6-4||205||04/12/1986||9||No College|
|17||Bryant, Kris||3B||6-5||230||01/04/1992||5||No College|
|7||Caratini, Victor||C||6-1||215||08/17/1993||3||No College|
|32||Chatwood, Tyler||RP||5-11||200||12/16/1989||8||No College|
|41||Cishek, Steve||RP||6-6||217||06/18/1986||10||No College|
|11||Darvish, Yu||SP||6-5||216||08/16/1986||7||No College|
|3||Descalso, Daniel||2B||5-10||200||10/19/1986||10||No College|
|16||Garcia, Robel||2B||6-0||168||03/28/1993||1||No College|
|28||Hendricks, Kyle||SP||6-3||190||12/07/1989||6||No College|
|22||Heyward, Jason||RF||6-5||240||08/09/1989||10||No College|
|24||Kimbrel, Craig||RP||6-0||205||05/28/1988||10||No College|
|20||Kintzler, Brandon||RP||6-0||194||08/01/1984||10||No College|
|34||Lester, Jon||SP||6-4||240||01/07/1984||14||No College|
|38||Maldonado, Martin||C||6-0||230||08/16/1986||9||No College|
|30||Mills, Alec||SP||6-4||205||11/30/1991||3||No College|
|62||Quintana, Jose||SP||6-1||220||01/24/1989||8||No College|
|44||Rizzo, Anthony||1B||6-3||240||08/08/1989||9||No College|
|27||Russell, Addison||2B||6-0||200||01/23/1994||5||No College|
|56||Ryan, Kyle||RP||6-5||215||09/25/1991||5||No College|
|46||Strop, Pedro||RP||6-1||220||06/13/1985||11||No College|