|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)
The Cubs are World Series contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 7.8% chance of winning it all. On 4/15 they had a 3.1% chance before increasing to 16% on 5/6. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 10.9%. They have a 56.9% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #2 in the conference and have a 88% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 16.7% chance of winning the NL (5/1) and a 9.1% chance of winning it all (10/1). In simulations they make the World Series 21.9% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
Cubs' Season Forecast Changes
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B
At 29-20 the Cubs are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 26.3 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ as a slight favorite, or by 5+ as a favorite then they have 12 good wins but they also have 12 bad losses. They have won 52% of their road games and were expected to win 50%. At home they have a 65% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 57%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (13-8, 62%) is better than their expected 54% win percentage. The Cubs are a good team (in simulations) and won 59.4% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#5 in the league). They have moved up from #9 in the league back on 4/27.
Their average run differential is +1.22 which ranks #2 in the NL, which is the same as how they rank in win percentage. They are the #1 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #2 ranked team among home teams. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is +0.77 which ranks them #4 over this stretch, slightly worse than overall.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The Cubs next 10 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 5 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 5-5 (25% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 27.7%. At #2 in the league, they are behind the Dodgers by 3 points. With a -1.04 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are in a battle with Phillies in the league. With a +0.88 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.
Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Cubs are the 11th least fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Cubs are playing 14 games, traveling 7272 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #22 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Chicago Cubs' next game. They are -159 favorites and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|5||Almora, Albert||CF||6-2||190||04/16/1994||4||No College|
|9||Baez, Javier||SS||6-0||190||12/01/1992||6||No College|
|13||Bote, David||3B||6-1||210||04/07/1993||2||No College|
|29||Brach, Brad||RP||6-4||205||04/12/1986||9||No College|
|17||Bryant, Kris||3B||6-5||230||01/04/1992||5||No College|
|7||Caratini, Victor||C||6-1||215||08/17/1993||3||No College|
|32||Chatwood, Tyler||RP||5-11||200||12/16/1989||8||No College|
|41||Cishek, Steve||RP||6-6||217||06/18/1986||10||No College|
|37||Collins, Tim||RP||5-7||170||08/21/1989||6||No College|
|40||Contreras, Willson||C||6-1||212||05/13/1992||4||No College|
|11||Darvish, Yu||SP||6-5||216||08/16/1986||7||No College|
|3||Descalso, Daniel||2B||5-10||200||10/19/1986||10||No College|
|6||Edwards, Carl||RP||6-3||170||09/03/1991||5||No College|
|35||Hamels, Cole||SP||6-4||205||12/27/1983||14||No College|
|28||Hendricks, Kyle||SP||6-3||190||12/07/1989||6||No College|
|22||Heyward, Jason||RF||6-5||240||08/09/1989||10||No College|
|20||Kintzler, Brandon||RP||6-0||194||08/01/1984||10||No College|
|34||Lester, Jon||SP||6-4||240||01/07/1984||14||No College|
|36||Maples, Dillon||RP||6-2||230||05/09/1992||3||No College|
|38||Montgomery, Mike||RP||6-5||215||07/01/1989||5||No College|
|62||Quintana, Jose||SP||6-1||220||01/24/1989||8||No College|
|44||Rizzo, Anthony||1B||6-3||240||08/08/1989||9||No College|
|27||Russell, Addison||2B||6-0||200||01/23/1994||5||No College|
|56||Ryan, Kyle||RP||6-5||215||09/25/1991||5||No College|