Chicago
Cubs
Stadium Wrigley Field
30-20 Overall | NL CENTRAL 1st
TEAM STATSAVGRHRERA
Cubs.257273773.69
Schedule
Regular season
Tue  5/21
vs
Phillies
W3-2
Wed  5/22
vs
Phillies
W8-4
Thu  5/23
vs
Phillies
L7-9
Fri  5/24
vs
Reds
L5-6
Sat  5/25
vs
Reds
W8-6
Sun  5/26
vs
Reds
2:20pm
Mon  5/27
@
Astros
2:10pm
Tue  5/28
@
Astros
8:10pm
Wed  5/29
@
Astros
ESPN8:10pm
Fri  5/31
@
Cardinals
8:15pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)

The Cubs are World Series contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 7.8% chance of winning it all. On 4/15 they had a 3.1% chance before increasing to 16% on 5/6. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 10.9%. They have a 56.9% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #2 in the conference and have a 88% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 16.7% chance of winning the NL (5/1) and a 9.1% chance of winning it all (10/1). In simulations they make the World Series 21.9% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 51% #5 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 49% #15 Easiest

Cubs' Season Forecast Changes

Sportsline not only has a pick on every game and line our Experts provide winning Daily Fantasy Optimal Lineups every day.

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B

At 29-20 the Cubs are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 26.3 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ as a slight favorite, or by 5+ as a favorite then they have 12 good wins but they also have 12 bad losses. They have won 52% of their road games and were expected to win 50%. At home they have a 65% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 57%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (13-8, 62%) is better than their expected 54% win percentage. The Cubs are a good team (in simulations) and won 59.4% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#5 in the league). They have moved up from #9 in the league back on 4/27.

Their average run differential is +1.22 which ranks #2 in the NL, which is the same as how they rank in win percentage. They are the #1 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #2 ranked team among home teams. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is +0.77 which ranks them #4 over this stretch, slightly worse than overall.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The Cubs next 10 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 5 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game

MAY 25
CLOSE GAME
58% CIN
--
MAY 26
CLOSE GAME
59% CIN
--
MAY 27
LIKELY LOSS
39% @HOU
946 miles
MAY 28
CLOSE GAME
50% @HOU
-- miles
MAY 29
CLOSE GAME
42% @HOU
-- miles
MAY 31
CLOSE GAME
53% @STL
266 miles
JUN 1
CLOSE GAME
57% @STL
-- miles
JUN 2
LIKELY WIN
64% @STL
-- miles
JUN 3
LIKELY WIN
73% LAA
266 miles
JUN 4
CLOSE GAME
59% COL
--

The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 5-5 (25% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 27.7%. At #2 in the league, they are behind the Dodgers by 3 points. With a -1.04 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are in a battle with Phillies in the league. With a +0.88 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Cubs are the 11th least fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Cubs are playing 14 games, traveling 7272 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #22 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the Chicago Cubs' next game. They are -159 favorites and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
5 Almora, Albert CF6-219004/16/19944No College
9 Baez, Javier SS6-019012/01/19926No College
13 Bote, David 3B6-121004/07/19932No College
29 Brach, Brad RP6-420504/12/19869No College
17 Bryant, Kris 3B6-523001/04/19925No College
7 Caratini, Victor C6-121508/17/19933No College
32 Chatwood, Tyler RP5-1120012/16/19898No College
41 Cishek, Steve RP6-621706/18/198610No College
37 Collins, Tim RP5-717008/21/19896No College
40 Contreras, Willson C6-121205/13/19924No College
11 Darvish, Yu SP6-521608/16/19867No College
3 Descalso, Daniel 2B5-1020010/19/198610No College
6 Edwards, Carl RP6-317009/03/19915No College
35 Hamels, Cole SP6-420512/27/198314No College
28 Hendricks, Kyle SP6-319012/07/19896No College
22 Heyward, Jason RF6-524008/09/198910No College
20 Kintzler, Brandon RP6-019408/01/198410No College
34 Lester, Jon SP6-424001/07/198414No College
36 Maples, Dillon RP6-223005/09/19923No College
38 Montgomery, Mike RP6-521507/01/19895No College
62 Quintana, Jose SP6-122001/24/19898No College
44 Rizzo, Anthony 1B6-324008/08/19899No College
27 Russell, Addison 2B6-020001/23/19945No College
56 Ryan, Kyle RP6-521509/25/19915No College
12 Schwarber, Kyle LF6-022003/05/19935Indiana