Cincinnati
Reds
Stadium Great American Ball Park
43-51 Overall | NL CENTRAL 5th
TEAM STATSAVGRHRERA
Reds.2404111273.89
Schedule
Regular season
Sun  7/21
vs
Cardinals
1:10pm
Mon  7/22
@
Brewers
8:10pm
Tue  7/23
@
Brewers
8:10pm
Wed  7/24
@
Brewers
2:10pm
Fri  7/26
vs
Rockies
6:40pm
Sat  7/27
vs
Rockies
7:10pm
Sun  7/28
vs
Rockies
1:10pm
Mon  7/29
vs
Pirates
7:10pm
Tue  7/30
vs
Pirates
7:10pm
Wed  7/31
vs
Pirates
12:35pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

At 43-51 the Reds are behind their money line projected win total of 44.8 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ as a slight favorite, or by 5+ as a favorite then they have 31 good wins vs 20 bad losses. They have won 40% of their road games and were expected to win 44%. At home they have a 52% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 52%. Losers of 3 in a row they have a 29.7% chance of seeing that extend to 5 straight. In simulations where the Reds played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 46.8% of the time (#21 in the league). They have moved up from #26 in the league back on 4/23.

Their record should be better. Their average run differential is +0.31 which ranks #6 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #14. They are the #5 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats). This is the same ranking they have among home teams. They are trending down. Their average run differential in their past 9 games is -1.44 (#14 over this stretch).

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

Sportsline not only has a pick on every game and line our Experts provide winning Daily Fantasy Optimal Lineups every day.

NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY

The forecast for their next 10 games is a mixed bag. They have 2 games where they are favored by >60% of the simulations, 5 more 'toss up' games, and 3 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game

JUL 19
CLOSE GAME
47% STL
--
JUL 20
CLOSE GAME
44% STL
--
JUL 21
CLOSE GAME
48% STL
--
JUL 22
CLOSE GAME
48% @MIL
326 miles
JUL 23
LIKELY LOSS
39% @MIL
-- miles
JUL 24
LIKELY LOSS
36% @MIL
-- miles
JUL 26
CLOSE GAME
49% COL
--
JUL 27
CLOSE GAME
50% COL
--
JUL 28
CLOSE GAME
57% COL
--
JUL 29
LIKELY WIN
63% PIT
--

The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 5-5 (25% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 13.9%. At #14 in the league, they are fighting with the Mets for positioning. Their projected wins (4.79) over the next 10 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. They are ahead of the Marlins by 7 points. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Marlins. There is only a 0.42 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Reds are the 9th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Reds are playing 14 games, traveling 2698 miles crossing 6 time zones. They rank #18 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the Cincinnati Reds' next game. They are -111 favorites and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG

Before the season, the Reds were projected for 66.5 points (average per simulation), and their projected points has been up and down this season. On 4/9 they had a 60.6% chance before increasing to 78.6% on 6/1. From the start of the season to now their chances are up to 74.9%. The playoffs are not likely with their 1.1% chance and a projected #14 finish in the conference. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the NL at 3.2% (30/1 odds) and a 1.6% chance of winning it all (60/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 48% #10 Easiest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 53% #2 Toughest

Reds' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
67 Bowman, Matt RP6-018505/31/19914No College
58 Castillo, Luis SP6-219012/12/19923No College
28 DeSclafani, Anthony SP6-119504/18/19905Florida
22 Dietrich, Derek 2B6-021207/18/19897Georgia Tech
6 Ervin, Phillip LF5-1020707/15/19923No College
3 Gennett, Scooter 2B5-1018505/01/19907No College
68 Graterol, Juan C6-120502/14/19894No College
54 Gray, Sonny SP5-1019211/07/19897Vanderbilt
49 Herget, Jimmy RP6-317009/09/19931No College
48 Hughes, Jared RP6-724007/04/19859No College
4 Iglesias, Jose SS5-1118501/05/19908No College
59 Lavarnway, Ryan C6-424008/07/19877No College
21 Lorenzen, Michael RP6-321701/04/19925No College
30 Mahle, Tyler SP6-321009/29/19943No College
53 Peralta, Wandy RP6-022007/27/19914No College
9 Peraza, Jose 2B6-019604/30/19945No College
66 Puig, Yasiel RF6-224012/07/19907No College
35 Roark, Tanner SP6-224010/05/19867Illinois
15 Senzel, Nick CF6-120506/29/19951Tennessee
--- Sims, Lucas 6-222505/10/19943No College
55 Stephenson, Robert RP6-321502/24/19934No College
7 Suarez, Eugenio 3B5-1121307/18/19916No College
17 VanMeter, Josh LF5-1116503/10/19951No College
19 Votto, Joey 1B6-222009/10/198313No College
33 Winker, Jesse LF6-321508/17/19933No College