|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C
At 23-27 the Reds are behind their money line projected win total of 24 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ as a slight favorite, or by 5+ as a favorite then they have 16 good wins vs 11 bad losses. They have won 41% of their road games and were expected to win 44%. At home they have a 52% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 53%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (10-9, 53%) is better than their expected 49% win percentage. In simulations, the Reds are a below average team and won 47.5% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#21 in the league). This is their peak for the season. Back on 4/23 they were at 41.1%. In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #22 winning 44.6%.
Their record should be better. Their average run differential is +0.52 which ranks #5 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #12. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #4 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #7 in road games. They are trending down. Their average run differential in their past 11 games is -0.36 (#10 over this stretch).
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The Reds next 10 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 6 games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 5-5 (25% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 24.4%. At #12 in the league, they are behind the Rockies by half a point. With a -0.31 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are ahead of the Giants by 2 points. With a +1.51 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.
Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Reds are the 19th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Reds are playing 14 games, traveling 3313 miles crossing 8 time zones. They rank #27 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Cincinnati Reds' next game. They are +132 underdogs and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP
The Reds are competing to make the playoffs and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs. On 4/6 they had a 0.1% chance before increasing to 5.5% on 5/24. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 6.1%. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the NL at 2.4% (40/1 odds) and a 1.2% chance of winning it all (80/1).
Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Hard
Reds' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|16||Barnhart, Tucker||C||5-11||192||01/07/1991||6||No College|
|67||Bowman, Matt||RP||6-0||185||05/31/1991||4||No College|
|58||Castillo, Luis||SP||6-2||190||12/12/1992||3||No College|
|22||Dietrich, Derek||2B||6-0||212||07/18/1989||7||Georgia Tech|
|50||Garrett, Amir||RP||6-5||228||05/03/1992||3||No College|
|37||Hernandez, David||RP||6-3||245||05/13/1985||10||No College|
|48||Hughes, Jared||RP||6-7||240||07/04/1985||9||No College|
|4||Iglesias, Jose||SS||5-11||185||01/05/1990||8||No College|
|26||Iglesias, Raisel||RP||6-2||188||01/04/1990||5||No College|
|21||Lorenzen, Michael||RP||6-3||217||01/04/1992||5||No College|
|30||Mahle, Tyler||SP||6-3||210||09/29/1994||3||No College|
|53||Peralta, Wandy||RP||6-0||220||07/27/1991||4||No College|
|9||Peraza, Jose||2B||6-0||196||04/30/1994||5||No College|
|66||Puig, Yasiel||RF||6-2||240||12/07/1990||7||No College|
|55||Stephenson, Robert||RP||6-3||215||02/24/1993||4||No College|
|7||Suarez, Eugenio||3B||5-11||213||07/18/1991||6||No College|
|17||VanMeter, Josh||LF||5-11||165||03/10/1995||1||No College|
|19||Votto, Joey||1B||6-2||220||09/10/1983||13||No College|
|33||Winker, Jesse||LF||6-3||215||08/17/1993||3||No College|