|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C
At 43-51 the Reds are behind their money line projected win total of 44.8 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ as a slight favorite, or by 5+ as a favorite then they have 31 good wins vs 20 bad losses. They have won 40% of their road games and were expected to win 44%. At home they have a 52% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 52%. Losers of 3 in a row they have a 29.7% chance of seeing that extend to 5 straight. In simulations where the Reds played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 46.8% of the time (#21 in the league). They have moved up from #26 in the league back on 4/23.
Their record should be better. Their average run differential is +0.31 which ranks #6 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #14. They are the #5 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats). This is the same ranking they have among home teams. They are trending down. Their average run differential in their past 9 games is -1.44 (#14 over this stretch).
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY
The forecast for their next 10 games is a mixed bag. They have 2 games where they are favored by >60% of the simulations, 5 more 'toss up' games, and 3 games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 5-5 (25% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 13.9%. At #14 in the league, they are fighting with the Mets for positioning. Their projected wins (4.79) over the next 10 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. They are ahead of the Marlins by 7 points. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Marlins. There is only a 0.42 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games.
Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Reds are the 9th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Reds are playing 14 games, traveling 2698 miles crossing 6 time zones. They rank #18 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Cincinnati Reds' next game. They are -111 favorites and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG
Before the season, the Reds were projected for 66.5 points (average per simulation), and their projected points has been up and down this season. On 4/9 they had a 60.6% chance before increasing to 78.6% on 6/1. From the start of the season to now their chances are up to 74.9%. The playoffs are not likely with their 1.1% chance and a projected #14 finish in the conference. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the NL at 3.2% (30/1 odds) and a 1.6% chance of winning it all (60/1).
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier
Reds' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|67||Bowman, Matt||RP||6-0||185||05/31/1991||4||No College|
|58||Castillo, Luis||SP||6-2||190||12/12/1992||3||No College|
|22||Dietrich, Derek||2B||6-0||212||07/18/1989||7||Georgia Tech|
|6||Ervin, Phillip||LF||5-10||207||07/15/1992||3||No College|
|3||Gennett, Scooter||2B||5-10||185||05/01/1990||7||No College|
|68||Graterol, Juan||C||6-1||205||02/14/1989||4||No College|
|49||Herget, Jimmy||RP||6-3||170||09/09/1993||1||No College|
|48||Hughes, Jared||RP||6-7||240||07/04/1985||9||No College|
|4||Iglesias, Jose||SS||5-11||185||01/05/1990||8||No College|
|59||Lavarnway, Ryan||C||6-4||240||08/07/1987||7||No College|
|21||Lorenzen, Michael||RP||6-3||217||01/04/1992||5||No College|
|30||Mahle, Tyler||SP||6-3||210||09/29/1994||3||No College|
|53||Peralta, Wandy||RP||6-0||220||07/27/1991||4||No College|
|9||Peraza, Jose||2B||6-0||196||04/30/1994||5||No College|
|66||Puig, Yasiel||RF||6-2||240||12/07/1990||7||No College|
|---||Sims, Lucas||6-2||225||05/10/1994||3||No College|
|55||Stephenson, Robert||RP||6-3||215||02/24/1993||4||No College|
|7||Suarez, Eugenio||3B||5-11||213||07/18/1991||6||No College|
|17||VanMeter, Josh||LF||5-11||165||03/10/1995||1||No College|
|19||Votto, Joey||1B||6-2||220||09/10/1983||13||No College|
|33||Winker, Jesse||LF||6-3||215||08/17/1993||3||No College|