REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND 2019 OUTLOOK
The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 99.8 wins. Their 91 actual wins was below expectation. They came up short at home and on the road. They went 42-39 on the road and were expected to win 47.7. Their 60.5% home win percentage was worse than expected (64.3%). Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 92 wins per sim and are projected to finish fourth in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #6 ranked Athletics who are projected for 89 wins. They are a contender with a 4.3% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 11.4% chance of reaching the Series. They are not a good futures betting value with championship odds of 10/1, 9.1% and odds to win the AL at 5/1, 16.7%. They are -800 to make the playoffs because of their overwhelming 1/4 odds to win the division. In simulations they win their division 79% of the time and only make the playoffs as a wildcard 3% of the time.
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TEAM STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Their record should be better. Since last season their average run differential is +0.94 which ranks #4 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #6. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #2 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #5 in road games.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
TEAM STATS AND BETTING RESULT GAMELOG
Below is a betting recap of all 162 regular games. Anyone who backed the Indians in all of their games would be down -1230 units. Against the run line, they have lost -2075 units risking 100 units on each pick (75-87 PL). They are down against the run line at home and on the road.