|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN
The Indians are competing to make the playoffs but their chances are on a downward trend. In our pre-season forecast they had a 80.3% chance of making the playoffs. On 4/20 they had an 85.3% chance before dropping to 26% on 5/24. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 29.6%. They have a 4.6% chance of winning their division. Based on the odds, they have a 10% chance of winning the AL (9/1) and a 5.3% chance of winning it all (18/1).
Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Easy
Indians' Season Forecast Changes
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C
Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 26-24 Indians 'should have' 28 wins. They have 20 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 11 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have won 48% of their road games and were expected to win 53%. At home they have a 56% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 60%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (10-11, 48%) is under their expected 59% win percentage. The Indians should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 51.6% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#14 in the league). They have moved up from #17 in the league back on 4/14.
Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average run differential is +0.02 which ranks #8 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #7. They are the #8 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats). This is the same ranking they have among home teams. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is +0.85 which ranks them #6 over this stretch, slightly better than overall.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The forecast for their next 10 games is generally good. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 3 games where they are a clear underdog. The rest of the games are toss ups.
The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 5-5 (26% chance). Their chances of winning 7 or more are 19.5%. At #7 in the league, they are fighting with the Rangers for positioning. There is only a -0.13 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games so we do not expect them to pick up ground in the league. They are in a battle with Athletics in the league. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Athletics. There is only a 0.39 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games.
Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Indians are just the 29th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Indians are playing 14 games, traveling 5752 miles crossing 8 time zones. They rank #29 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Cleveland Indians' next game. They are -131 favorites and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|1||Allen, Greg||LF||6-0||175||03/15/1993||3||San Diego State|
|10||Bauers, Jake||LF||6-1||195||10/06/1995||2||No College|
|57||Bieber, Shane||SP||6-3||195||05/31/1995||2||No College|
|59||Carrasco, Carlos||SP||6-3||212||03/21/1987||10||No College|
|90||Cimber, Adam||RP||6-4||180||08/15/1990||2||No College|
|36||Clippard, Tyler||RP||6-3||200||02/14/1985||13||No College|
|34||Cole, A.J.||RP||6-5||238||01/05/1992||5||No College|
|33||Hand, Brad||RP||6-3||220||03/20/1990||9||No College|
|22||Kipnis, Jason||2B||5-11||195||04/03/1987||9||Arizona State|
|12||Lindor, Francisco||SS||5-11||190||11/14/1993||5||No College|
|8||Luplow, Jordan||RF||6-1||195||09/26/1993||3||Fresno State|
|2||Martin, Leonys||CF||6-2||200||03/06/1988||9||No College|
|35||Mercado, Oscar||LF||6-2||175||12/16/1994||1||No College|
|49||Olson, Tyler||RP||6-3||205||10/02/1989||5||No College|
|61||Otero, Dan||RP||6-3||215||02/19/1985||8||No College|
|39||Perez, Oliver||RP||6-3||225||08/15/1981||17||No College|
|55||Perez, Roberto||C||5-11||225||12/23/1988||6||No College|
|11||Ramirez, Jose||3B||5-9||190||09/17/1992||7||No College|
|68||Rodriguez, Jefry||SP||6-6||232||07/26/1993||2||No College|
|41||Santana, Carlos||1B||5-11||210||04/08/1986||10||No College|
|63||Smith, Josh||RP||6-3||200||10/11/1989||0||No College|